June 212 bp.com/statisticalreview Energy in 211 disruption and continuity Paul Appleby, Head of Energy Economics
Outline A year of disruptions Energy and the economy Fuel by fuel Concluding remarks
Energy in 211 disruptions and continuity Supply disruptions Mtoe Arab Spring Fukushima Annual change, % 4% GDP and energy growth GDP Energy -2 3% -4 Coal Nuclear Gas Oil 2% -6 1% -8 Libya Syria/Yemen Japan Germany % 21-11 211 Source: includes data from Oxford Economics
Energy prices $/boe 15 12 9 6 3 Energy prices Oil Brent Gas Henry Hub Coal basket Şub-8 Mar-9 Nis-1 May-11 Haz-12 211 price changes Annual change, % 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% Oil Brent Gas HH Coal basket Source: includes data from Platts and McCloskey
The economy Annual change, % Contribution to GDP growth Quarterly change, % annualised GDP growth 4% 3% Non-OECD OECD 8% 4% 2% % US Japan 1% -4% EU % 198-199 1981-1991 199-2 1991-21 2-21 21-211 211-8% 1Q1 3Q1 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 Source: includes data from Oxford Economics
GDP and energy growth Annual change, % Non-OECD Annual change, % OECD 8% GDP Energy 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% % % -2% 21-11 211-2% 21-11 211 Source: includes data from Oxford Economics
Crude oil prices $/bbl 15 1 Dated Brent $/bbl 13 115 1 Dated Brent WTI Dated Brent and WTI 5 Dated Brent Annual averages 27 28 29 21 211 212 85 7 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Source: includes data from Platts
Oil production growth in 211 Mb/d Decline Increase -1,5-1, -,5,,5 1, 1,5 Libya Non-OPEC OPEC UK Angola Azerbaijan Norway US Iraq Kuwait UAE Saudi Arabia
US supply US supply US rig counts Annual change, Kb/d Rigs 125 1 75 5 25 Other NGLs GoM TX/ND* Net 2 15 1 5 Oil Gas -25 28 29 21 211 1Q12 *Texas and North Dakota Oca-7 May-8 Eyl-9 Oca-11 May-12 Source: includes data from Energy Information Administration and Baker Hughes
Oil consumption growth in 211 Largest changes Regional growth by fuel type Kb/d Kb/d -4-2 2 4 6 China Russia India 9 6 3 Light distillate Middle distillate Saudi Arabia Iran Taiwan Germany US OECD Non-OECD -3-6 Non-OECD OECD
Limits to oil consumption growth Subsidised consumption Vehicle fuel economy % of global demand $/bbl Litres/1km for new sales 4% 3% Oil price (RHS) 12 9 11 1 9 US* EU 2% 6 8 1% 3 7 6 China Japan % 23 25 27 29 211 5 22 25 28 211 Source: includes data from the International Council for Clean Transportation and the US Environmental Protection Agency * Includes light trucks
Oil consumption and production World liquids demand and supply OECD commercial oil stocks Mb/d Mbbls 9 89 29 28 26-1 range 26-1 average 211 212 88 87 86 Demand Supply 27 26 85 4Q1 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 25 35 Mbbl SPR release Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Source: includes data from Energy Information Administration and Monthly Oil Data Services OECD/International Energy Agency June 212
Refining: spare capacity and utilisation Mb/d since 25 Cumulative spare capacity growth Refinery utilisation 6 4 Non-OECD OECD 89% 85% World OECD Non-OECD 2 81% 26 27 28 29 21 211 77% 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Source: includes data from Parpinelli Tecnon and Energy Security Analysis Inc.
Crude oil trade and refining margins European crude imports NW Europe cracking margins Mb/d $/bbl 1 8 S&C America Other 1 8 21 211 212 6 FSU 6 4 Africa 4 2 Middle East 2 1995 1999 23 27 211 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Source: includes data from the International Energy Agency
Natural gas markets in 211 Annual change, Bcm Production and consumption growth $/Mmbtu Regional gas prices 15 1 5 Middle East North America Other Asia 2 15 1 Asia LNG Germany AGIP UK NBP US Henry Hub FSU Europe 5-5 Production Consumption Feb 1 Aug 1 Feb 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Source: includes data from Platts
Global gas trade Gas exports LNG import growth in 211 Bcm Annual change, Bcm 15 Share of global consumption (RHS) 35% 3 1 3% 2 From Qatar 5 Pipeline 25% 1 From Atlantic Basin LNG 21 23 25 27 29 211 2% -1 To Asia To Europe Source: includes data from Cedigaz, GIIGNL, CISStats, Poten, Waterborne
Natural gas in Asia and Europe in 211 Annual change, Bcm Asia supply growth Europe supply and demand growth Annual change, Bcm 3 2 1 LNG Pipeline Production 15-15 From Russia From Libya Production Other net import -1-3 -2 China Japan Other Asia -45 Supply Demand Source: includes data from Cedigaz, GIIGNL, CISStats, Poten, Waterborne
US natural gas market Bcm 8 6 4 2 Production Shale gas 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% Gas share in power generation 1971 1981 1991 21 211 1% 26-1 range 211 212 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Source: includes data from Energy Information Administration
Coal growth in 211 Mtoe Largest changes in production Mtoe Largest changes in consumption China 158 China 163 Indonesia 26 India 25 Colombia 7 Australia 6 Russia 6 Spain 5 Ukraine 5 Canada -2 US 5 Japan -6 Australia -5 US -24
Coal prices and trade $/tonne Steam coal prices Annual change, Mtoe Import growth in 211 18 15 China Qinhuangdao (fob) Japan Index (cif) NW Europe (cif) US CAPP (fob) 3 2 From Indonesia 12 9 1 From Russia From US From Colombia From other 6 Oca-1 Tem-1 Oca-11 Tem-11 Oca-12 Source: includes data from McCloskey, Eurostat, IHS CERA -1 To Asia* *China, India, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan To Europe
Nuclear, hydro and other renewables in power Annual change, TWh 2 Output changes in 211 Shares of world power generation 2% 1 Brazil 15% -1 Other Japan US China EU Other OECD 1% 5% Nuclear Hydro Renewables -2 Germany Nuclear Hydro Renewables % 1991 1996 21 26 211
Impact of oil prices on the economy 211 net oil import bill Net oil imports % GDP Mb/d 8% 6% Oil import bill Exports to oil producers Net cost 16 12 4% 8 EU China 2% 4 US India % US EU China India 21 23 25 27 29 211 Source: includes data from the International Monetary Fund
Long-term trends Shares of world primary energy Trillion bbls Oil and gas reserves Tcm 5% 4% 3% Oil Coal Gas 2, 1,6 1,2 Other North America FSU OPEC 25 2 15 2% Hydro,8 1 1% Nuclear,4 5 % 1966 1981 1996 211 Renew., 1981 1991 21 211 1981 1991 21 211
Conclusion 211: supply response, inter-fuel substitution, trade optimisation Key: flexible markets Lessons: diversity of supply, global integration
June 212 bp.com/statisticalreview Energy in 211 disruption and continuity