Irish Monthly Retail Report Data to June 21st Key Sources of Information: Kantar Worldpanel AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009
Agenda Total and Macro Sector Performance Consumer Behaviour Retailer Performance Total Food Update Focus: Dunnes
The Irish Grocery Market continues to grow 12we, up 0.9%. Overall HH Spend is down by -0.1% as Number of Trips decreases by -1.4%. Tesco is still at top spot in the market. Aldi, Lidl and Dunnes performed ahead of the market. 3
Market Overview The total market is +2.2% (pack volume terms) in the last 12 wks, as shoppers continued to increase volumes purchased. PL has increased share this period as branded sales fall. Retailer Performance Tesco is still at top spot within the market despite seeing share dip from last period. SuperValu has seen share dip by 0.1ppt as it loses shoppers and Spend per Trip. Dunnes grew sales ahead of the market (+6.3%) and share increased YoY to 22.2% through increased spend per trip. Aldi have grown value by +5.3% in the 12 weeks, with an increase in shoppers, frequency and switching gains from all retailers except Lidl. Lidl have performed the best with growth of 6.4% in the last 12 weeks. Increases in frequency and switching drove performance OVE RVIE W Shopper Behaviour Spend per Household has declined this period by -0.1%, despite Spend per Trip increasing by +30c, as shoppers go on less trips compared to the same period last year. 4
TOTAL AND MACRO SECTOR PERFORMANCE
ROI grocery market sales are in growth 52we by +1.2% and 12we by +0.9% Total Grocery - market value & YoY %chg +0.3% +1.2% +2.0% +0.9% 6
ROI grocery markets volume sales grew 12we by 2.2% and were also up over the full year by 2.7% as shoppers pick up more items in store Total Grocery - market volume (Packs) & YoY %chg +1.3% +2.7% +3.7% +2.2% 7
Fresh & Chilled, Alcohol, Household and Healthcare are the sectors growing the most this period over 52 weeks. 52w Total Grocery - sectors value shares & YoY %chg +2.4% -0.6% +1.8% +2.2% -0.6% -1.4% 2.0%
Fresh & Chilled continues to see good growth while Ambient declines by -1.1% this period over 12 weeks. 12w Total Grocery sector(s) value share & YoY %chg Share of total trolley Ambient Food 28% Household 7% Frozen 5% Toiletries 4% Healthcare 1% Fresh & Chilled Produce 49% Alcohol 7% Total Trolley +0.9% value 9
Total Pack Sales growth of 2.2% Driven by Fresh and Chilled & Ambient Performance 12w Total Grocery sector(s) pack share & YoY %chg Share of total trolley Ambient Food 29.8% Household 4.5% Fresh & Chilled Produce 56.8% TOTAL TOILETRIES TOTAL FRESH & CHILLED TOTAL HOUSEHOLD (inc Petcare) 4.0 3.1 2.5 Frozen 3.8% TOTAL GROCERY 2.2 Toiletries 2.6% Healthcare 0.4% Alcohol 2.0% AMBIENT GROCERIES TOTAL HEALTHCARE 1.1 0.9 Total Trolley FROZEN -0.6 +2.2% packs
Grocery Value Sales Improving across 52, 12 and 4 week ending periods Macro Sector % change in value sales % Value Change 52w/e 12w/e 4w/e 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.5-1.4-1 -3.5-1.4-1.8-0.6-1.1-0.6-1.1-5.7 TOTAL GROCERY ALCOHOL HEALTHCARE HOUSEHOLD (inc Petcare) TOILETRIES AMBIENT GROCERIES TOTAL FRESH & CHILLED FROZEN 11
Total & Macro Sector Summary Total Grocery Market achieving healthy levels of growth in both 52 and 12 and 4 w/e periods Pack Sales Continue to Grow Ahead of Spend as Customers Seek Better Value The latest 4 w/e period has seen growth of 0.9% Short term growth has been fuelled by Ambient and Fresh and Chilled
CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
For the first time in 2015 Household Spend has decreased compared to the same period last year, while inflation continues to rise. 12w Total Grocery - value & HH spend %chg YoY 7% 6% 5% Inflation HH Spend change 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1 % -2 % -3 % 14
13 Nov 11 11 Dec 11 08 Jan 12 05 Feb 12 04 Mar 12 01 Apr 12 29 Apr 12 27 May 12 24 Jun 12 22 Jul 12 19 Aug 12 16 Sep 12 14 Oct 12 11 Nov 12 09 Dec 12 06 Jan 13 03 Feb 13 03 Mar 13 31 Mar 13 28 Apr 13 26 May 13 23 Jun 13 21 Jul 13 18 Aug 13 15 Sep 13 13 Oct 13 10 Nov 13 08 Dec 13 05 Jan 14 02 Feb 14 02 Mar 14 30 Mar 14 27 Apr 14 25 May 14 22 Jun 14 20 Jul 14 17 Aug 14 14 Sep 14 12 Oct 14 09 Nov 14 07 Dec 14 04 Jan 15 01 Feb 15 01 Mar 15 29 Mar 15 26 Apr 15 24 May 15 21 Jun 15 Shoppers are still buying more volume but trading down and buying more on promotion has lead to HH Spend Change slightly decreasing. Promotion/Product Change Store Choice Inflation Volume per buyer HH Spend Change 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 15
Spend per Trip has increased by 30c but Average Spend per Household has fallen as shoppers go on less trips versus last year. 12w Total Grocery - changes in consumer shopping behaviour Average frequency decreased by -1.4% Decrease in 12w spend per HH (-0.1%) Average basket spend is up +30c 16
PL continues to show steady growth as shoppers look to save money. 12w Total Grocery PL value% 17
Branded has increased within SuperValu and Dunnes but it is still down overall. Tesco continues to see declines in Branded and PL. 12w Total Grocery retailer branded vs PL value sales change YoY 000s Growing Sales Losing Sales 18
RST Volume Growth by Price Brand Growth in RST sales (Volume) Change in sales Share of sales 6.0 5.0 4.0 4.7 4.3 4.4 20.5 Super Premium 3.0 20.0 2.0 Premium 1.0 1.1-35.0 Good -1.0 Standard -2.0-2.2 14.6-3.0 Budget (Median -50%) Standard (Median - 25%) Good (Median price) Premium (Median +25%) Super Prem (Median +75%) 9.9 Budget % Volume 12 w/e 21 Jun 15 19
Consumer Behaviour Summary Volume Per Buyer added value to the grocery market over the past 12 weeks, but consumers continue to look for value by trading down or buying on promotion. Frequency has declined this period by -1.4%, with shoppers increasing basket spend by 0.30. Private Label continues to be the source of growth in the market, however SuperValu, Dunnes and Aldi have achieved growth in branded goods.
RETAILER PERFORMANCE
Dunnes are now growing ahead of Aldi while Lidl is the best performer this period. 12w Total Grocery retailer value % chg YoY Gaining share Losing share 22
Aldi, Lidl, SuperValu and Dunnes grow sales over the year, with the Discounters both achieving double digit growth YoY. 52w Total Grocery retailer value %chg YoY Lidl 11.3 Aldi 11.2 Dunnes 3.0 Total Outlets 1.2 Gaining share Total SuperValu 0.5 Total Symbols -3.0 Losing share Tesco -3.6 % change 23
The Discounters share continues to grow, as Tesco s share drops 2.8 ppts over two years 52w Total Grocery retailer value % YoY 52 w/e 23 Jun 13 52 w/e 22 Jun 14 52 w/e 21 Jun 15 24
SuperValu has maintained share YoY while Dunnes have the best performance out of the multiples. 12w Total Grocery retailer value % YoY 25
Only Aldi has increased penetration versus last year. SuperValu have grown through Frequency while Dunnes have seen heavy vouchering increase Spend per Trip by 5. 12w Total Grocery retailer KPI scorecard shopper penetration (Actual change in shopper penetration) purchase frequency (% change vs last year) spend per trip (Actual change in per trip ) -2.2ppt 0% - 0.40-1.9ppt +3.6% - 0.30-0.3ppt -3.0ppt -5.4% + 5.00 +1.0ppt +2.4% 0.00-0.3ppt +5.8% 0.00 26
SuperValu lead the way in terms of Frequency as shoppers buy there more often. Aldi are the only retailer to see an increase in Penetration. 12w Total Grocery retailer KPIs % PENETRATION FREQUENCY SPEND PER SHOPPER TRIP SPEND 27
Fresh & Chilled has grown or remained steady across all the major retailers while Alcohol loses out in Aldi. 12w Total Grocery key sector value% YoY by retailer Total Market 28
The discounters see share grow in Fresh Food while SuperValu sees an increase in share of Alcohol. 12w Total Grocery retailer value% YoY by key sector Total Market Alcohol Healthcare Household Toiletries Ambient Food Fresh Food Frozen Food 29
% of Housewives Aged Under 45 Symbols have the oldest shopper, while Aldi, Lidl and Tesco have the youngest. 50 Young C2DE Young ABC1 45 Tesco Aldi 40 Lidl Total Outlets 35 Dunnes 30 Total SuperValu 25 Total Symbols Older C2DE Older ABC1 20 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 Social Class
Dunnes and SuperValu have gained shopper loyalty in the last 12we, while the Discounters continue to see an increase in loyalty. 12w Total Grocery retailer loyalty (value) 31
Lidl is gaining Switching spend from all retailers while Tesco sees big losses to Dunnes. 12w Total Grocery retailer switching 11.4m 3.4m 0.7m 0.02m 0.2m 2.6m 1m 3.1m 3.2m 1m 32
Tesco sales declining at -3.3% YoY Dunnes sales growing at +6.3% YoY 12w Total Grocery retailer scorecard Tesco & Dunnes Going Well: Still at top spot within ROI Frequency has remained steady Could do Better: Switching losses to all retailers Shoppers and Trip Spend are down Brand and PL are in decline Shopper loyalty in decline Going Well: Highest growth out of all multiples Switching gains from Tesco and SuperValu Shopper Loyalty has increased PL and Brands are growing Could do Better: Shopper numbers are down Frequency has declined 33
SuperValu sales growing at +0.6% YoY Aldi sales growing at +5.3% YoY 12w Total Grocery retailer scorecard SuperValu & Aldi Going Well: Frequency has increased Branded and PL sales are growing Switching gains from Tesco Going Well: Brands & PL in growth Increased shoppers and frequency Could do Better: Shopper numbers have declined Spend per Trip is down Switching losses to Dunnes Could do Better: Switching losses to Lidl Rate of growth has slowed and is now behind Dunnes 34
Lidl sales growing at +6.4% YoY 12w Total Grocery retailer scorecard Lidl Going Well: Overtaken Aldi in terms of share Strong Value Sales growth Frequency has increased Switching gains from all retailers Could do Better: Penetration has declined slightly 35
TOTAL FOOD UPDATE
000s Growth in Total Food has increased over 52 and 12 w/e periods Total Food Value sales & Growth 7,197,408 7,222,507 7,308,568 1.2% 0.5% +0.3 +1.2% 1,636,569 1,667,401 1,683,277 +1.9% -0.1% +1.0% +2.3% 1.5% 52 w/e 23 Jun 13 52 w/e 22 Jun 14 52 w/e 21 Jun 15 12 w/e 23 Jun 13 12 w/e 22 Jun 14 12 w/e 21 Jun 15 52 we 000 s 12 we 000 s
Spend ( 000) - Yr on Yr % Change 12 week ending growth of 1.0% in the latest period Total Food - Trended Value Growth % 3.0 2.3 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.6 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.3-0.3-1.0-2.0 Total
AMBIENT GROCERIES TOTAL FRESH & CHILLED % Value Share of Food Food FROZEN 6.1 6.0 34.7 34.0 12 w/e 22 Jun 14 12 w/e 21 Jun 15 59.1 60.0 TOTAL FOOD AMBIENT GROCERIES TOTAL FRESH & CHILLED Retailer Value Share of Food FROZEN -1.1-1.1 1.0 12 w/e % value growth of Food 2.4 Total Food 12w/e 21st June 2015 Total food growth of 1.0% driven by the strong performing Fresh and Chilled Category. We continue to see the discounters gaining share in Total Food, with Dunnes also increasing share. Aldi and Lidl are the only retailers to reduce the percentage sold on offer. All other retailers displayed increases in percentage sold on offer. Percentage Packs Sold on Offer 21.9 19.5 25.3 24.2 25.8 25.6 21.4 22.6 16.7 17.7 12 w /e 22 Jun 14 12 w /e 21 Jun 15 13.7 12.7 15.3 15.4 14.8 14.3 14.2 12.5 8.2 8.7 8.5 8.9 4.8 4.5 3.6 3.9 5.7 6 1.6 1.8 Tesco Total SuperValu Dunnes Total Discounters Aldi Lidl Total Symbols Total Outlets Tesco Total Dunnes Total Aldi Lidl Total SuperValu Discounters Symbols 12 w/e 22 Jun 14 12 w/e 21 Jun 15
F&C % Value Share of Food Fresh & Chilled Quarterly % value growth of F&C Fresh & Chilled Overview 12w/e 21 st June 2015 Total Chilled Convenience Dairy Products Fresh Fish Fresh Meat Fresh Poultry+Game Fruit+Veg+Salads 12 w /e 22 Jun 14 6.8 7.0 1.6 1.9 3.7 3.6 13.9 14.0 13.2 13.1 18.7 19.1 TOTAL FRESH & CHILLED Total Chilled Convenience Dairy Products Fresh Fish Fresh Meat Fresh Poultry+Game Fruit+Veg+Salads -0.5 2.4 3.9 1.6 0.0 3.3 23.3 Fresh and Chilled is growing across all sub categories, with the exception of Fresh Poultry and Game Fresh fish has displayed very strong growth in the latest 12 weeks. Fruit+Veg+Salads, Chilled Convenience and Fresh Fish are the drivers of growth in the category, all displaying strong increases In terms of promotions, all retailers reduced their level of promotions except Tesco and the discounters who increased promotions 12 w /e 21 Jun 15 Percentage Packs Sold on Offer 18.8 23.3 Retailer Value Share of Fresh & Chilled 27.8 27.3 12 w /e 22 Jun 14 22.2 12 w /e 21 Jun 15 21.8 20.1 18.8 17.6 11.8 11.4 13.6 13 14.8 14 16.8 7.3 6.5 9.7 8.3 8.2 8.8 9.4 10.0 4.4 4.1 4.3 3.5 1.1 0.6 Tesco Total SuperValu Dunnes Total Discounters Aldi Lidl Total Symbols Total Outlets Tesco Total SuperValu Dunnes Total Discounters Aldi Lidl Total Symbols 12 w/e 22 Jun 14 12 w/e 21 Jun 15
Ambient % value share of Food Ambient Bakery Product Biscuits Canned Goods Hot Beverages Packet Breakfast Savoury Carbohydrts&Snacks Savoury Home Cooking Take Home Savouries 3.8 4 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.3 0.9 1 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.4 11.3 Quarterly % value growth of Ambient Grocery 12.2 Ambient AMBIENT GROCERIES Ambient Bakery Product Biscuits Canned Goods Hot Beverages Packet Breakfast Savoury Carbohydrts&Snacks Savoury Home Cooking Take Home Savouries -1.1-0.9-1.0 0.6 0.8 1.1 2.1 4.2 6.4 Ambient Grocery Overview 12w/e 21st June 2015 The Ambient category is in decline. This decline is driven by decreases in Ambient Bakery Product and Take Home Soft Drinks. Hot Beverages and Take Home Soft Drinks have been the worst performers in the Ambient category over the period. Dunnes is the only multiple to increase their share in this category. Take Home Soft Drinks 4.5 4.5 Take Home Soft Drinks -1.0 12 w/e 22 Jun 14 12 w/e 21 Jun 15 Percentage Packs Sold on Offer 28.5 27.3 Retailer Value Share of Ambient 12 w /e 22 Jun 14 23.2 23.3 23.8 23.1 12 w /e 21 Jun 15 15.4 14.6 15.9 14.2 18.2 15.7 15.2 13.8 26.7 23.9 19.2 17.8 7.7 8.1 7.0 7.3 5.4 5.2 2.7 2.3 1.7 1.5 3.9 3.2 Tesco Total SuperValu Dunnes Total Discounters Aldi Lidl Total Symbols Total Outlets Tesco Total SuperValu Dunnes Total Discounters Aldi Lidl Total Symbols 12 w/e 22 Jun 14 12 w/e 21 Jun 15
Frozen % value share of Food Frozen Quarterly % value growth of Frozen Frozen Overview 12 w/e 21st June 2015 TOTAL FROZEN Frozen Confectionery 0.20 0.20 5.60 5.60 TOTAL FROZEN Total Frozen Confectionery 1.3 The Total Frozen category has grown over the past quarter, as the growth in Frozen Confectionary and Frozen Prepared Foods drives performance 17.6 Total Frozen Fish Total Frozen Prepared Foods 12 w /e 30 Mar 14 12 w /e 29 Mar 15 1.00 0.90 3.40 3.40 Total Frozen Fish Total Frozen Prepared Foods -3.3 2.5 SuperValu and Tesco have continued to lose share in the category, while Dunnes have increased their share by 1.3 ppts. Percentage Packs Sold on Offer 29.8 27.4 26.2 Retailer Value Share of Frozen 23.2 20 22.6 21.7 23 23 23.4 26.3 24.6 24.9 23.2 23.6 22.5 18.9 19.1 12 w /e 30 Mar 14 12 w /e 29 Mar 15 11 9.9 13.5 13.5 11.9 11.3 7.0 7.8 4.2 4.0 7.1 4.1 Tesco Total SuperValu Dunnes Total Discounters Aldi Lidl Total Symbols 12 w/e 22 Jun 14 12 w/e 21 Jun 15
FOCUS ON:DUNNES
44 Kantar Worldpanel
Retailer % of Value-Actual Over the Long Term Dunnes Value Share of the Grocery Market has increased slightly 25.0 12 w/e 21st June 15 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 Dunnes s long-term Long Term Share has increased by nearly a percent over the past two years. 0.0 Dunnes
Dunnes and Lidl have gained share from last period but SuperValu and Tesco still remain close at the top. 12w Total Grocery retailer value % trended 46
Spend ( 000)-Yr on Yr % Change Dunnes has experienced strong growth since the same period last year Spend ( 000) Yr on Yr % Change Total TOTAL RST Total Republic 12 w/e 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0
Dunnes have grown mostly through Packs per Trip. The vouchering scheme is really driving customers to increase their basket size. 12w Total Grocery retailer KPI drivers of value %chg YoY TOTAL RST Total Market 12 w/e 21 Jun- 15 Penetration % Purchase Frequency Trip Packs Price per Pack Total Market Tesco SuperValu Dunnes Aldi Lidl Total Symbols -80,000-60,000-40,000-20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 48
Dunnes are the only multiple to see growth in the 100+ shopping basket Total Tesco 25 SuperValu Dunnes 25-50 50-100 Aldi Lidl 100+ -20-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Change in Millions
Dunnes have now shifted this campaign away from smaller trips, encouraging shoppers to spend more in store 50 Kantar Worldpanel
Other Retailers have responded with their own vouchering schemes. Tesco are redeeming their competitors vouchers within store 51 Kantar Worldpanel
Dunnes has performed strongest in achieving switch spend in the latest 12 w/e period. It has also seen strong incremental growth. 12w Total Grocery retailer source of value change YoY
Dunnes Demographic Share of Spend YoY Change Retired Empty Nesters Older Dependants 45+ Family Middle Family Young Family Pre-Family Class E Class D Class C2 Class C1 Class AB 5+ Member HHs 4 Member HHs 3 Member HHs 2 Member HHs 1 Member HHs 6.6 7.3 14.8 18.2 11.2 12.1 23.8 22.4 15.8 14.7 11.1 13.1 14.6 14.3 18.2 20.5 15 15.2 20 22.6 16.9 16.1 18.4 17.2 21.3 23.2 19 17.7 10.6 12.5 27.4 28.2 28.7 31.3 12 w/e 21 Jun 15 12 w/e 22 Jun 14 Connaught+Ulster Munster Rest of Leinster Dublin 13.1 14.5 17.4 17.6 32.7 34.1 33.8 36.8
What is Driving Dunnes performance? 1. Strongest Growth out of all the multiples. 2. Growth is ahead of Aldi in the latest period. 3. Gained large switch spend from Tesco, also wining significant spend from SuperValu. 4. Driving large increase in Volume per Trip. 5. Private label and Brand sales up YoY. 1. Penetration has declined in the latest 12 week, dropping by -4.6% 2. Shoppers are returning less to Dunnes, with frequency down -5.4%. This is a knock-on effect from their vouchering scheme encouraging greater volume per trip. 6. Shopper loyalty has increased. 54