HOW TO PROMOTE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: INDONESIA s CASE Dr. Sudhiani Pratiwi Deputy Director for Climate Change, Directorate fo the Environment Affairs Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas Presented at: INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM COMMEMORATING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ACT Tokyo, December the 4th 2018
2 Indonesia and the Potential Disaster Geographical Condition ± 17,000 islands Lands 1.922.570 km2 Water body 3.257.483 km2 Located in between the Asia and Australia continents and Indian and Pacific ocean Major threats: - Increased Sea Surface Temperature - Changed in Rainfall intensity and pattern - Increased Sea Level Rise (RAN API 2014) Population ± 261 million people (BPS 2018) FLOOD EXXTREME WEATHER TSUNAMI LANDSLIDE DROUGHT EARTHQUAKE TECHNOLOGY FAILURE Source: Data & Informasi Bencana Indonesia (DIBI) Tahun 1815-2012 Percentage of Disaster in Indonesia (1815-2016) World Bank (2010) predict Indonesian economic loss by climate change approximately 7% from GDP if there is no quick response
National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation in National Mid-term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2015-2019 3 Policy Direction and Strategy for achieving climate change targets: (RPJMN 2015-2019 Book I, Chapter 6 National Development Agenda): Energy Industry Agriculture Forestry Housing Fisheries, etc.
How to Promote Climate Change Adaptation Climate Projection Climate Hazard Vulnerability and Risk EVIDENCE BASED Atmospheric Oceanic Input Input Dengue fever Flood,Landslide,and Water availability Rice production and productivity Maritime safety and Coastal vulnerability Water shortage, Flood, Drought and Landslide Marine transportation, Fisheries, and Coastal and Small Islands Vector-borne disease and waterborne disease Production, planting area, andplanting schedule Policy Framework Hazard Assessment Threshold Consideration on Vulnerability factors Baseline (Input) RESILIENCE INDEX
Indonesia s Temperature and Rainfall Projection Projection 2020-2034: Scenario RCP4.5 is between 0.3 1.3 C Scenario RCP8.5 is between 0.5 1.5 C Projection 2030-2045: Scenario RCP4.5 and Scenario RCP8.5 are relatively between 0.6 1.5 C *) Scenario Representative Concentration Pathway is GHG emission according to IPCC, scenario RCP4.5 = medium emission scenario Monthly Rainfall Change Projection (Scenario RCP4.5* Period 2020-2035) Rainfall decrease up to 2 mm/day January: Sumatera, Jawa, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi dan Papua May July: from Java to NTT Rainfall increase between 1-2.5 mm/day August and September: Most of Indonesian Monthly Rainfall Change Projection (Scenario RCP4.5 Period 2030-2045) Rainfall decrease between 1-2.5 mm/day May August: most of Indonesian Indonesia will have a dry condition
Sea Level Rise Map from Potential Hazard Assessment Ship with <10 GT capacity will have a narrower area due to extreme wave height (>1m) Eastern part of Indonesia will be vulnerable for sea transportation, particularly for ship under 30GT. Lower maritime safety and ship efficiency (high waves has a positive correlation to fuel consumption) Source: RAN-API review, 2018
Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) Sumater a INDEKS CVI PERWILAYAH KEPULAUAN INDONESIA Sulawesi Papua Nusa Tenggara Maluku Kalimanta n Jawa dan Bali Kilometer 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 Main factor in determining CVI is coastal slope and erosion/acretion. The most vulnerable area is the one with relatively flat slope and high erosion/acresion index and vice versa. Source: RAN-API review, 2018
Potential Risk Map for Water Availibility and Drought (projection: 2020-2034) In 2020-2034, the rainfall is projected to decrease up to 1-4%. A change in rainfall intensity is implied in water sector, particularly in water shortage and drought Northern Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara islands, and Northern Maluku will potentially have a lower water availability in 2020-2034 Drought potential in 2020-2034 will imply in all area and Nusa Tenggara islands will be more severe. Source: RAN-API review, 2018
9 Potential Decrease in Rice Production An increase of temperature and a change in rainfall imply to rice production A lower rice production is projected to be in east-north provinces, starting from Papua, Papua Barat, Maluku, Maluku Utara, Sulawesi Tengah, Sulawesi Utara, Gorontalo, Kalimantan Utara, Kalimantan Tengah; as well as in NTB and Sumatera Selatan. Source: RAN-API review, 2018
Potential Increase in Dengue Fever Incidence An increase in temperature and rainfall influence the dengue vector propagation which imply to the number of dengue fever The dengue fever is projected to increase, particularly in Kalimantan s provinces Source: RAN-API review, 2018 10
11 How Related Ministries Response Issue of CCA Ministry of Marine and Fisheries Ministry of Public Works and Housing Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Health PKPT SIMAIL Provision of clean water Mangrove rehabilitation Geotube development Love the sea movement Beach School Fishery resources conservation Coral ecosystem protection Etc. Program continuity: Performance indicator development Flood control Road construction and reconstruction Built up area planning SPAM establishment Flat and specific housing construction Etc. Program continuity: CCA Activity guidance Criteria/ achievement indicator of CCA activity Inventory of the activity/ output of the related CCA organization Integrated Modern KATAM Farm insurance Development of water harvesting infrastructure Development of 1000 organic agriculture village Proper varieties utilization Etc. Performance indicators: Increase cropping index Crop planning expansion Increase production/ productivity Decrease crop failure Decrease pest attack Preparing related regulation Socialization and advocating Mapping the population and vulnerable area Improve illness control and prevention program Improve surveillance and impact system information Develop appropriate technology Etc. Program continuity: Each sector coordination Sectoral activity planning Activity identification related to CCA in Health sector (APIK)
12 RAN-API Program & Activity in Ministry/Agency Food Security Energy Independence Health Housing Infrastructure Ecosystem Resilience Urban Coastal and small islands Supporting system
Climate change adaptation initiative in Indonesia collaboration between BAPPENAS and MOEJ feedback MOEJ Phase 1 (2016-2018) - Scientific Assessment Selection of priority sector Model development & analysis on risk by scientist Share with stakeholder Pilot provinces Various scenario for adaptation Knowledge MOEJ Phase2 (2018-2021)-Science to Policy Goal : I. Support NAP development process II. Adaptation platform III. Mainstreaming adaptation into regional planning IV. Climate financing II. Adaptation platform I-PLAT framework Target audience & its design Data sharing Maintenance III. Mainstreaming adaptation into regional planning visualization II & III: on going
14 Deliverables and Contributors of I-PLAT & Target Users Climate Projection Users Atmospheric Oceanic Climate Change Potential Hazard Water Marine & Coastal Agriculture Health Ministry/ Agency Bappeda 34 provinces, 416 districts, 98 cities 3 pilots Urban poor CCA Mainstreaming Vulnerability and Risk Agriculture Regional Regulation Resilience Index Academic, Scientist Local input Loss and Damage Finish On-going Start Development Partners Local Govt. in 34 provinces Public
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