How effective would a global version of the EU 2-2-2 policy be? JAE EDMONDS AND KATHERINE CALVIN Joint GCAM Community Modeling Meeting and GTSP Technical Workshop Joint Global Change Research Institute College Park, Maryland, USA 19 September 212
Background! GCAM is used in an international multi-model research project called LinkS Linking Global and Regional Models.! LinkS is a program organized and managed by SINTEF (Skandinavias største uavhengige forskningsorganisasjon) located at the in Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) for the Research Council of Norway.! GCAM provides a description of global circumstances for other models in the modeling suite including! World Gas Model (UMD)! China TIMES model! European electricity infrastructure model! European model! Social science research! The most recent meeting was in Beijing, China hosted by Tsinghua University.
ANALYSIS PROTOCOL
Goal of the Analysis! Evaluate the efficacy of an international and ultimately global generalization of the EU 2-2-2 energy policy.! Multi-measure policy package.! How effective?! What is its effect on the global energy system?! What is its effect on the global and land-use systems?! How will it effect CO 2 and other prices?! Evaluate the contribution of the policy s various measures
Policies and Measures Modeled in the Global 2-2-2 Policy Policies and Measures GHG Emissions Limits Renewable Energy PorColio Standard Biofuels Standard Energy Efficiency Standard Implementa3on Emissions reduc-ons are measured rela-ve to those 3 years prior to the 1 st commitment period. (e.g. 199 for Europe, 25 for the USA) Percentage of final energy that must come from renewable energy sources Percentage of transporta-on energy from renewable energy. Reduc-on in final energy demand rela-ve to the reference scenario, other things unchanged. First Period Commitment Second Period Commitment Third Period Commitment Beyond the Third Period 2% 5% 8% 8% 2% 5% 8% 8% 1% 25% 5% 5% 2% 5% 8% 8%
Timing of Regional Participation and Determination of the Year Emissions Mitigation and Establishment of Standards First Year in which climate mi3ga3on policies and measures are introduced 22 235 25 265 Region Eastern Europe Western Europe Australia & New Zealand Canada China Japan S. Korea USA Former Soviet Union India La-n America Africa Middle East Southeast Asia Year 199 25 22 235
Comparison of year 21 Values for Key Outputs from GCAM for the & Global 2-2-2 Policies and Measures Scenarios Global 2-2- 2 Fossil Fuel & Industrial CO 2 Emissions 81 PgCO 2 /y PgCO 2 /y Cumula3ve Land- use Change CO 2 Emissions 142 PgCO 2-251 PgCO 2 Radia3ve Forcing 6.7 Wm - 2 3.3 Wm - 2 Global Mean Surface Temperature Change 3.8 o C 2.3 o C CO 2 Equivalent Concentra3on 98 ppm CO 2 - e 514 ppm CO 2 - e CO 2 ONLY Concentra3on 811 ppm 433 ppm Price of carbon (25 constant USD) $/TCO 2 $59/TCO 2
RESULTS
Radiative Forcing and Temperature: and Global 2-2-2 8 7 6 Radia-ve Forcing Global 2-2- 2 4. 3.5 3. Global Mean Surface Temperature Change Relative to Pre-Industrial Global 2-2- 2 W/m 2 5 4 3 Degrees C 2.5 2. 1.5 2 1. 1.5 25 22 235 25 265 28 295. 21 225 24 255 27 285 21
The Composition of Power Generation in the Scenario (left) and the Global 2-2-2 Scenario (right) EJ/yr 8 7 6 5 4 3 Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass w/ CCS Biomass w/o CCS Oil w/ CCS Oil w/o CCS Gas w/ CCS Gas w/o CCS Coal w/ CCS Coal w/o CCS EJ/yr 8 7 6 5 4 3 Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass w/ CCS Biomass w/o CCS Oil w/ CCS Oil w/o CCS Gas w/ CCS Gas w/o CCS Coal w/ CCS Coal w/o CCS 2 2 1 1 295 28 265 25 235 22 25 295 28 265 25 235 22 25
POLICY DECOMPOSITION
Global 2-2-2 Decomposition! To assess the impact of each element of the global 2-2-2 policy, we ran a scenario turning on three individual policy elements separately: Policies and Measures GHG Emissions Limits Renewable Energy PorColio Standard Energy Efficiency Standard Implementa3on Emissions reduc-ons are measured rela-ve to those in the 3 years prior to the 1 st commitment period. (e.g. 199 for Europe, 25 for the USA) Percentage of final energy that must come from renewable energy sources Reduc-on in final energy demand rela-ve to the reference scenario, other things unchanged. First Period Commitment Second Period Commitment Third Period Commitment Beyond the Third Period 2% 5% 8% 8% 2% 5% 8% 8% 2% 5% 8% 8%
Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel and Industrial Activities (left panel) and Land-use Change (right panel) Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions Land-use Change CO 2 emissions 9 8 7 Global 222 GHG Only EE Only RES Only 4 3 2 6 1 GtCO 2 /yr 5 4 3 2 GtCO 2 /yr - 1-2 Global 222 GHG Only EE Only RES Only 1-3 25 22 235 25 265 28 295-4 25 22 235 25 265 28 295
Power Generation EJ/yr 8 7 6 5 4 3 Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass w/ CCS Biomass w/o CCS Oil w/ CCS Oil w/o CCS Gas w/ CCS Gas w/o CCS Coal w/ CCS Coal w/o CCS Global 2-2-2 EJ/yr 8 7 6 5 4 3 Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass w/ CCS Biomass w/o CCS Oil w/ CCS Oil w/o CCS Gas w/ CCS Gas w/o CCS Coal w/ CCS Coal w/o CCS GHG Only 2 2 1 1 295 28 265 25 235 22 25 295 28 265 25 235 22 25 EJ/yr 8 7 6 5 4 3 Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass w/ CCS Biomass w/o CCS Oil w/ CCS Oil w/o CCS Gas w/ CCS Gas w/o CCS Coal w/ CCS Coal w/o CCS EE Only EJ/yr 8 7 6 5 4 3 Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass w/ CCS Biomass w/o CCS Oil w/ CCS Oil w/o CCS Gas w/ CCS Gas w/o CCS Coal w/ CCS Coal w/o CCS RES Only 2 2 1 1 25 22 235 25 265 28 295 25 22 235 25 265 28 295
The CO 2 Price 35 3 25 Global 222 GHG Only 25$/tCO 2 2 15 1 5 25 22 235 25 265 28 295
Bioenergy and Crop Prices Bioenergy Produc-on Crop Prices 6 4.5 EJ/year 5 4 3 2 Global 222 GHG Only EE Only RES Only Price of Wheat (25=1.) 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 Global 222 GHG Only EE Only RES Only 1 1..5 25 22 235 25 265 28 295. 25 22 235 25 265 28 295
Temperature Change 4. Degrees C 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 GHG Only EE Only RES Only Global 2-2- 2 1..5. 21 225 24 255 27 285 21
Summary! Our numerical experiments test the effectiveness of the EU 2-2-2 energy policy generalized to the world.! Policy Portfolio: emissions limits, renewable energy standards, energy efficiency standard.! The Global 2-2-2 policy proved highly effective in limiting climate change.! Global mean temperature increase limited to ~2 o C.! The climate objective was achieved with the GHG emissions limits alone.! Next steps! Revise the paper! Submit to a journal