NEW Atmospheric Science Jeffrey R. Brook Environment and Climate Change Canada University of Toronto British Columbia Lung Association 2018 Air Quality and Health Workshop The Future of Air Quality Management for Improved Public Health Vancouver - Feb. 5, 2018
Topics Recent advances in atmospheric science that may influence how air quality is managed Improving models and emissions data Higher resolution faster computers Protecting people through forecasting (e.g., forest fires) Independent verification Characterizing air quality Multi-scale data fusion Areas and/or populations of greater risk Mixtures Targeting specific types of particulate matter Oxidative potential Page 2 22 février 2018
General Air Pollutant Life Cycle Page 3 22 février 2018
Area Affected by Wildfire Smoke Average seasonal percentage of fire-pm 2.5 contribution to average seasonal PM 2.5 FireWork concentrations 2013 2016 Page 4 22 février 2018
Area Affected by Wildfire Smoke Average seasonal percentage of fire-pm 2.5 contribution to average seasonal PM 2.5 FireWork concentrations 2013 2016 Page 5 22 février 2018
Area Affected by Wildfire Smoke Average seasonal percentage of fire-pm 2.5 contribution to average seasonal PM 2.5 FireWork concentrations 2013 2016 2017 JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER Page 6 22 février 2018
Observed and Forecasted PM 2.5 Concentrations EDMONTON Improved forecasts with FireWork Aug 6 th Aug 12 th FireWork was able to forecast the area affected by smoke. However, the forecasted meteorology brought pollution close to the surface level which wasn't observed. Pollution remained on upper levels while still affecting inhabitants. Page 7 22 février 2018 VANCOUVER
Upcoming advances in modelling Mechanistic Forest Fire Emissions Fire spread and growth using hourly forecasted meteorology Fire characteristics (flaming, smoldering, residual) Updated emission factors (PM, NOx, NMHC, NH 3, CO) Plume injection height based on fire energy thermodynamics Energy Balance Q plume F incomplete combustion Q fire dq/dt black body radiation Q evaporation Q radiation Q fuel heating Higher spatial resolution (2.5km) Beta tests for southern Ontario (BAQS-Met; PanAm Games) Run routinely since 2013 for western Canada (oil sands) Considered for routine forecasting in 2022 Q surface heating Ongoing improvements in understanding, such as organic aerosols Page 8 22 février 2018
Emissions inventories and datasets Garbage in garbage out Accurate baseline for setting targets VOCs from 4 different oil sands operations VOCs very challenging Reported << Measured Page 9 22 février 2018 Li et al., PNAS, 2017
Chemical Transport Model (CTM) + Monitoring Average PM 2.5 Summer 2012 Page 10 22 février 2018 Robichaud and Menard, ACP, 2014
CTM + Monitoring : Helps highlight local/region features Interpolated Observations Objective Analysis of Obs. and Model Able to see true, physically meaningful patterns Page 11 22 février 2018
Satellite + CTM + Monitoring A huge benefit to exposure assignment in epidemiological research Page 12 22 février 2018 MAPLE project
Satellite observations Air Quality Model Measurement networks Hi-Res Emissions LUR models Page 13 22 février 2018
Highway 401 @ MOE Offices Near Road Expressway Station: Highway 401 @ Resources Road MOE Offices. 125 Resources Rd. Page 14 22 février 2018 NAPS 60430: 167 m : 401 NR Station <10 m
Vancouver Sites 5 Page 15 22 février 2018
Vancouver Toronto NO and NO2 Near Road Site Comparisons Page 16 22 février 2018
BC (mg/m 3 ) Vancouver 4.0 Toronto Black Carbon Near Road 3.5 Site Comparisons 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 3.0 Near road 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Local 0.5 bkgrd NR-TOR-1 Weekday NR-VAN Weekday 0.0 NR-TOR-1 Weekend NR-VAN Weekend 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Clark (Vancouver) 401 (Toronto) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 NR-TOR-1 Weekday NR-TOR- NR-VAN Weekday NR-TOR-1 Weekday NR-TOR-1 Weekend NR-VAN Weekday NR-VAN Weekend NR-VAN Page 17 22 février 2018
Vancouver Sites 8 Page 18 22 février 2018
Comparison of ozone is one example of how the mixtures can be different Page 19 22 février 2018
Traffic Air Pollutant (TRAP) Mixtures On-road plume-based emission factors NO 2 Black Carbon Ultrafine particles Benzene Isocyanic acid Hydrogen Cyanide Page 20 22 février 2018 Wren et al., in prep.
Tremendous advances in measurement capability High time resolution mobile measurements (1 5 second data) Measurements NO 2 (LGR-CRD) Black Carbon (HS-LII) CRUISER Toxics (HR-CIMS) Ultrafine particle counts (CPC) VOCs such as benzene, toluene, xylenes (PTR-TOF-MS) NO (TECO), CO, CO 2, CH 4 (Picarro-CRD), O 3 (2B) PM 2.5 (SHARP), optical particle counts (UHSAS) Meteorology and turbulence, GPS Page 21 22 février 2018
Mobile labs bring much detail Can be purpose-equipped Resolve the spatial pattern in the urban background concentrations Within and between neighborhood/grid variations Isolate local hotspots, survey unmonitored areas local hot spots (traffic, industrial, burning, etc.) Contribution from the urban area Contribution from surrounding region Long-range transport Page 22 22 février 2018
Benzene (ppb) Intermodal Freight Hubs Lake Ontario Toronto and region covered by CRUISER W E 1.5 95th Percentile 50th Percentile Mean 5th Percentile Air pollution coming in A local hotspot 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 212019181716151413121110 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-0.1 Page 23 22 février 2018 Joe et al., Bul Am. Met Soc., 2018
Industrial Hot Spots Page 24 22 février 2018
Are there differences in toxicity? Collect bulk samples and test on cells Page 25 22 février 2018 Thomson et al., Part Fibre Toxicol 13:65 (2016)
Oxidative Potential: A fast, easy, health-relevant assay Able to generate much more data than traditional in vitro toxicology Janssen et al. Sci Tot Env. 2014 Kramer et al., Atmos Env 2016 Page 26 22 février 2018
Oxidative potential (OP) explains emergency room visits better than PM 2.5 Atlanta asthma/wheezing congestive heart failure Page 27 22 février 2018 Bates et al., ES&T, 2015
Oxidative potential (OP) explains emergency room visits better than PM 2.5 Page 28 22 février 2018
Policy Implications a quick overview Models are better than ever and this brings increasing opportunities for AQ managers to learn about their airsheds and evaluate policy scenarios There is a need for increased independent evaluation of emissions in some sectors An approach to public/decision-maker communication regarding exposure hotspots - where, what and how elevated can they be vs. the local background? While research tends to support the hypothesis that not all PM mass poses the same health risk scientific consensus is still lacking on how to prioritize policies. Page 29 22 février 2018
Acknowledgements S. Wren, D. Herod, D. Johnson, J. Chen, E. (ECCC); Thompson (HC) THANK YOU Page 30 22 février 2018