North Florida Regional Water Supply Plan 2015: Demand Projection Methods / Results Tammy Bader SJRWMD February 17, 2015
Projections Updated: Feedback from 12/15/14 1 percent conversion of Domestic-Self supply to Public Supply 5 SJRWMD NFRWSP counties Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, St. Johns 11 SJRWMD NFRWSP permits updated Historic population split for CCUA in Bradford and Clay counties Decrease in GPCD used and resulting demand decrease in SRWMD Bradford County
PS Population / Update Summary District 2035 Original 2035 Updated % SJRWMD 1,805,516 1,847,550 42,034 2 SRWMD 77,961 77,961 0 0 Total 1,883,477 1,925,511 42,304 2
PS Water Use / Update Summary District 2035 Original 2035 Updated % SJRWMD 254.61 260.94 6.33 2 SRWMD 11.78 11.78 0.00 0 Total 266.39 272.72 6.33 2 Values shown in million gallons per day
DSS Population / Update Summary District 2035 Original 2035 Updated % SJRWMD 498,743 456,709-42,034-8 SRWMD 191,480 191,480 0 0 Total 690,223 648,189-42,034-6 Includes small public supply
DSS Water Use / Update Summary District 2035 Original 2035 Updated % SJRWMD 50.10 46.14-3.96-8 SRWMD 18.25 18.17-0.08-0.4 Total 68.35 64.31-4.04-6 Values shown in million gallons per day Includes small public supply
Reclaimed Water ( Beneficial Reuse ) Purpose Estimate volume of reclaimed water that may be potentially available to offset future demands. Two Components: Increased treatment of existing wastewater Projected availability from future wastewater
Reclaimed Water - Existing Source Data & Assumptions 2010 DEP Reuse Report (> 0.10 mgd) Potential reclaimed water availability from current flow two scenarios Scenario 1: DEP utilization goal of 75% of 2010 facility treatment flow minus existing 2010 total beneficial reuse Scenario 2: WWTF specific % beneficial utilization rate (2010) of 2010 facility treatment flow minus existing 2010 total beneficial reuse
Reclaimed Water - Future Analysis Overlay service area boundaries with WWTFs to identify population that feeds each facility & associate projected increase in demand 84 gpcd * 95% of population = projected increase in wastewater flow (69 gpcd residential + 15 gpcd for associated commercial)
Reclaimed Water - Future Analysis Potential future reclaimed water availability two scenarios Scenario 1 75% of projected increase = Projected New Reclaimed Water Flow Add increased capacity from existing flow (75%) Scenario 2 WWTF specific % beneficial utilization rate (2010) of projected increase = Projected New Reclaimed Water Flow Add increased capacity from existing flow (WWTF specific % beneficial utilization rate (2010) ) Increase in Existing Flow Utilization + Projected New Reclaimed Water = Potential Future Reclaimed Water for Beneficial Reuse
Reclaimed Water - Range Takes into account that there are uncertainties with increasing use of existing flows. Cost may be prohibitive, e.g. plant upgrades and infrastructure Takes into account that there are uncertainties with future flows. Storage availability Customer availability Future flows may also be used more efficiently, e.g. industrial user versus residential user
Reclaimed Water - Other Offset to exiting use (GW/SW) is not one to one Projections only represent potential flow available, not projects. Specific projects using reclaimed water to be identified by stakeholders (future step in NFRWSP).
Original Total 2035 Potential Additional Reclaimed Water District 2010 % Beneficial Utilization Rate DEP 75 % Beneficial Utilization Rate Range SJRWMD 24.84 102.85 78.01 SRWMD 0.18 6.26 6.08 Total 25.02 109.11 84.09 Values shown in million gallons per day
to Total 2035 Potential Additional Reclaimed Water District 2010 % Beneficial Utilization Rate DEP 75 % Beneficial Utilization Rate Range SJRWMD 25.62 105.38 79.76 SRWMD 0.18 6.26 6.08 Total 25.80 111.64 85.84 Values shown in million gallons per day
Updated Total 2035 Potential Additional Reclaimed Water District 2010 % Beneficial Utilization Rate % DEP 75 % Beneficial Utilization Rate % SJRWMD 0.78 3 2.53 2 SRWMD 0.00 0 0.00 0 Total 0.78 3 2.53 2 Values shown in million gallons per day
Projected Water Use: Agricultural Self-Supply - Status Alternative 1 (Economic Method): FDACS AG water use projections Statewide polygon water demand by cash crop type (16) in 5-year increments through 2035 Alternative 2 (Historic Trends Method): District AG water use projections FSAID 2010 acreage as base FSAID derived irrigation requirements Added 2011 & 2012 SRWMD permitted acreages Future acreage using moving historical average from USDA Census (1987-2012)(Developed by Balmoral) SJRWMD & SRWMD polygon water demand by crop type (32) in 5- year increments through 2035
Next Steps AG Demands on hold FDACS will provide draft updated demands with economic method at end of February Finalize agricultural water demand projections Spatial distribution of water demand projections for 2015-2035
North Florida Regional Water Supply Plan 2015: Demand Projection Methods / Results Questions?