Seeing is believing synergy amongst Lake Erie plankton and nutrients, exotic species, and climate change Joseph D. Conroy, Douglas D. Kane, Erin L. Quinlan, and David A. Culver Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology The Ohio State University Columbus, Ohio The Fourth Biennial Conference of the Lake Erie Millennium Network 28 February 2006
Acknowledgements Funding sources Ohio Division of Wildlife, Department of Natural Resources United States Environmental Protection Agency Ohio Lake Erie Commission, Lake Erie Protection Fund Ohio Sea Grant College Program/ F.T. Stone Laboratory The Ohio State University Collaborators Murray Charlton, Dave Dolan, Bob Heath, Bill Edwards, Matt Thomas, LETS collaborators Lab Technicians Nate Gargasz, Erin Haas, Ruth Briland, Valerie Crane, Erin Greenlee, Kyla Hershey, Caitlin McDonnell, Jeff Niehaus, Maggie Spoo, Elaina Smith, and Christine Sweeney Field Assistants Mindy Beam, Mark Dufour, Shannon Percival
LETS Observations 1. Historically low [chlorophyll a] 2. Increased [TP] w/o increased external TP load 3. Continued central basin hypolimnetic hypoxia Our Contribution Investigate 1. to determine relationship with 2. & 3. Merge historical data w/ Lake Erie Plankton Abundance Survey Phytoplankton DeVault & Rockwell. 1986. GLNPO Rpt. Makarewicz. 1993a. JGLR. Makarewicz et al. 1999. JGLR. Munawar & Munawar. 1976. J. Fish. Res. Board Can. Zooplankton Bean. 1980. M.S. Thesis, OSU. Makarewicz. 1993b. JGLR. Watson & Carpenter. 1974. J. Fish. Res. Board Can. Weisgerber. 2000. M.S. Thesis, OSU.
Hypotheses H 0 : No change H TP : External Total Phosphorus load controls Total Phytoplankton Biomass H ZM : Zebra Mussels (dreissenids) removed TPP H Clim : Climatological factors affect TPP
Historical TPP Data
8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Historical TPP Data 4 6 Spring 3 2 1 0 WB CB EB TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Basin Summer WB CB EB 4 Basin 2 0
Historical TPP Data 4 Spring Summer 8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 3 2 1 6 4 2 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 0 WB CB EB WB CB EB 0 Basin Basin From Munawar & Munawar 1976
Historical TPP Data 4 Spring Summer 8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 3 2 1 0 83-88/89 83-88/89 83-88/89 WB CB EB 83-88/89 83-88/89 83-88/89 WB CB EB 6 4 2 0 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Basin Basin From Makarewicz et al. 1999
Historical TPP Data 4 Spring Summer 8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 3 2 1 0 83-88/89 89/90-93 89/90-93 83-88/89 83-88/89 89/90-93 WB CB EB 83-88/89 89/90-93 89/90-93 83-88/89 83-88/89 89/90-93 WB CB EB 6 4 2 0 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Basin Basin From Makarewicz et al. 1999
Predictors & Effects Matrix Period Predictors 19 1983-88 1989-93 1996-97 1998-2002 2003-04
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT 19 1983-88 1989-93 1996-97 1998-2002 2003-04
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT Effect on TPP 19 1983-88 1989-93 1996-97 1998-2002 2003-04
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors 19 1983-88 1989-93 1996-97 1998-2002 2003-04
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction 19 1983-88 1989-93 1996-97 1998-2002 2003-04
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 1983-88 1989-93 1996-97 1998-2002 2003-04
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 1983-88 1989-93 1996-97 1998-2002 2003-04
Lake Erie Total Phosphorus Loading 28 Ext. Total P Load (kilotonnes) 24 20 16 12 8 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Data from Dolan 1993 and Dolan personal communication
Lake Erie Total Phosphorus Loading 28 Ext. Total P Load (kilotonnes) 24 20 16 12 8 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Data from Dolan 1993 and Dolan personal communication
Lake Erie Total Phosphorus Loading 28 Ext. Total P Load (kilotonnes) 24 20 16 12 8 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Data from Dolan 1993 and Dolan personal communication
Lake Erie Total Phosphorus Loading 28 Ext. Total P Load (kilotonnes) 24 20 16 12 8 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Data from Dolan 1993 and Dolan personal communication
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 1983-88 =/ 1989-93 =/ 1996-97 =/ 1998-2002 2003-04?( )
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 1983-88 =/ 1989-93 =/ 1996-97 =/ 1998-2002 2003-04?( )
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19-1983-88-1989-93 Invaded, Max Density 1996-97 = 1989-93 1998-2002 </= 1989-93 2003-04 = 1998-2002
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19-1983-88 =/ - 1989-93 =/ Invaded, Max Density 1996-97 =/ = 1989-93 1998-2002 </= 1989-93 2003-04?( ) = 1998-2002
Lake Erie Water Level 176 Water Level (m above sea level) 175 174 173 172 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Data from Station 9063063, NOAA NOS CO-OPS
Lake Erie Water Level 176 Water Level (m above sea level) 175 174 173 172 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Data from Station 9063063, NOAA NOS CO-OPS
Lake Erie Water Level 176 Water Level (m above sea level) 175 174 173 172 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Data from Station 9063063, NOAA NOS CO-OPS
Lake Erie Water Level 176 Water Level (m above sea level) 175 174 173 172 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Data from Station 9063063, NOAA NOS CO-OPS
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 = 1983-88 1989-93 = 1996-97 1998-2002 2003-04
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 - = 1983-88 =/ - 1989-93 =/ Invaded, Max Density = 1996-97 =/ = 1989-93 1998-2002 </= 1989-93 2003-04?( ) = 1998-2002
Precipitation 140 130 Total Precipitation (cm) 120 110 100 90 80 70 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Data from Station 331657, NCDC
Precipitation 140 130 Total Precipitation (cm) 120 110 100 90 80 70 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Data from Station 331657, NCDC
Precipitation 140 130 Total Precipitation (cm) 120 110 100 90 80 70 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Data from Station 331657, NCDC
Precipitation 140 130 Total Precipitation (cm) 120 110 100 90 80 70 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Data from Station 331657, NCDC
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 1983-88 = 1989-93 1996-97 1998-2002 2003-04?
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 - = 1983-88 =/ - = 1989-93 =/ Invaded, Max Density = 1996-97 =/ = 1989-93 1998-2002 </= 1989-93 2003-04?( ) = 1998-2002?
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 Highest 1983-88 =/ < 19 1989-93 =/ = 1983-88 1996-97 =/ = 1989-93 1998-2002 < 1996-97 2003-04?( )?(>)
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 - - 1983-88 - - 1989-93 Invaded, Max Density < 1983-88 1996-97 = 1989-93 = 1989-93 1998-2002 </= 1989-93 > 1996-97 2003-04 = 1998-2002 = 1998-2002
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 = Highest 1983-88 = </= 19 1989-93 = > 1983-88 1996-97 > 1989-93 1998-2002 < 1996-97 2003-04??
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 - = Highest - Highest 1983-88 =/ - = < 19 - </= 19 1989-93 =/ Invaded, Max Density = = 1983-88 < 1983-88 > 1983-88 1996-97 =/ = 1989-93 = 1989-93 = 1989-93 > 1989-93 1998-2002 </= 1989-93 < 1996-97 > 1996-97 < 1996-97 2003-04?( ) = 1998-2002??( ) = 1998-2002?
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 - = Highest - Highest Highest 1983-88 =/ - = < 19 - </= 19 < 19 1989-93 =/ Invaded, Max Density = = 1983-88 < 1983-88 > 1983-88 1983-88 1996-97 =/ = 1989-93 = 1989-93 = 1989-93 > 1989-93 =/> 1989-93 1998-2002 </= 1989-93 < 1996-97 > 1996-97 < 1996-97 1996-97 2003-04?( ) = 1998-2002??( ) = 1998-2002? =/> 1998-2002?
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 - = Highest - Highest Highest Highest 1983-88 =/ - = < 19 - </= 19 < 19 < 19 1989-93 =/ Invaded, Max Density = = 1983-88 < 1983-88 > 1983-88 1983-88 < 1983-88 1996-97 =/ = 1989-93 = 1989-93 = 1989-93 > 1989-93 =/> 1989-93 1998-2002 </= 1989-93 < 1996-97 > 1996-97 < 1996-97 1996-97 2003-04?( ) = 1998-2002??( ) = 1998-2002? =/> 1998-2002?
Predictors & Effects Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 - = Highest - Highest Highest Highest 1983-88 =/ - = < 19 - </= 19 < 19 < 19 1989-93 =/ Invaded, Max Density = = 1983-88 < 1983-88 > 1983-88 1983-88 < 1983-88 1996-97 =/ = 1989-93 = 1989-93 = 1989-93 > 1989-93 =/> 1989-93 1998-2002 </= 1989-93 < 1996-97 > 1996-97 < 1996-97 1996-97 2003-04?( ) = 1998-2002??( ) = 1998-2002? =/> 1998-2002?
Results Recent TPP Data 4 Spring Summer 8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 3 2 1 0 83-88/89 89/90-93 83-88/89 89/90-93 83-88/89 89/90-93 WB CB EB 83-88/89 89/90-93 83-88/89 89/90-93 83-88/89 89/90-93 WB CB EB 6 4 2 0 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Basin Basin
Results Recent TPP Data 4 Spring Summer 8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 3 2 1 0 83-88/89 89/90-93 83-88/89 89/90-93 96-97 96-97 83-88/89 89/90-93 96-97 WB CB EB 83-88/89 89/90-93 96-97 83-88/89 89/90-93 83-88/89 89/90-93 96-97 96-97 WB CB EB 6 4 2 0 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Basin Basin From LEPAS
Results Recent TPP Data 4 Spring Summer 8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 3 2 1 0 98-02 83-88/89 89/90-93 89/90-93 98-02 83-88/89 98-02 96-97 96-97 83-88/89 89/90-93 96-97 WB CB EB 98-02 83-88/89 89/90-93 96-97 98-02 98-02 89/90-93 83-88/89 96-97 89/90-93 83-88/89 96-97 WB CB EB 6 4 2 0 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Basin Basin From LEPAS
Results Recent TPP Data 4 Spring Summer 8 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 3 2 1 0 03-04 98-02 83-88/89 98-02 89/90-93 89/90-93 03-04 83-88/89 98-02 96-97 96-97 83-88/89 89/90-93 03-04 96-97 WB CB EB 03-04 98-02 83-88/89 89/90-93 96-97 03-04 98-02 98-02 83-88/89 89/90-93 96-97 83-88/89 89/90-93 03-04 96-97 WB CB EB 6 4 2 0 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) Basin Basin From LEPAS Conroy et al. In press. JGLR
Predictors, Effects, & Results Matrix Predictors Effect on TPP Period Ext. TP ZM H 2 0 Level PPT TP ZM Clim Factors Prediction Observed 19 - = Highest - Highest Highest Highest 1983-88 =/ - = < 19 - </= 19 < 19 < 19 1989-93 =/ Invaded, Max Density = = 1983-88 < 1983-88 > 1983-88 1983-88 < 1983-88 1996-97 =/ = 1989-93 = 1989-93 = 1989-93 > 1989-93 =/> 1989-93 1998-2002 </= 1989-93 < 1996-97 > 1996-97 < 1996-97 1996-97 < 1989-93 << 1983-88 >> 1996-97 > 1989-93 2003-04?( ) = 1998-2002??( ) = 1998-2002? =/> 1998-2002? = 1998-2002
A similar analysis for zooplankton?
Total Crustacean Zooplankton Biomasses 0.4 Spring Summer 0.4 TCZP (dry mg L -1 ) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 70-75 70-75 03-04 98-02 96-97 98-02 03-04 70-75 84-87 96-97 03-04 84-87 84-87 96-97 98-02 WB CB EB 70-75 70-75 70-75 98-02 03-04 03-04 96-97 84-87 98-02 96-97 84-87 84-87 98-02 96-97 03-04 WB CB EB 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 TCZP (dry mg L -1 ) Basin Basin From LEPAS Conroy et al. In press. JGLR
What do chlorophyll a concentrations tell us about TPP?
Chlorophyll a Concentration & TPP 80 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 60 40 20 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) From LEPAS
Chlorophyll a Concentration & TPP 80 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 60 40 20 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) From LEPAS
Chlorophyll a Concentration & TPP 80 TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 60 40 20 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) TPP = 0.74 + 0.21 x [Chl a] F 1,1047 = 48.11, P < 0.001 R 2 = 0.04 From LEPAS
Chlorophyll a Concentration & TPP TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 80 60 40 20 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) -4-2 0 2 4 ln Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) 8 4 0-4 -8 ln TPP (wet mg L -1 ) TPP = 0.74 + 0.21 x [Chl a] F 1,1047 = 48.11, P < 0.001 R 2 = 0.04 From LEPAS
Chlorophyll a Concentration & TPP TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 80 60 40 20 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) -4-2 0 2 4 ln Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) 8 4 0-4 -8 ln TPP (wet mg L -1 ) TPP = 0.74 + 0.21 x [Chl a] F 1,1047 = 48.11, P < 0.001 R 2 = 0.04 From LEPAS
Chlorophyll a Concentration & TPP TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 80 60 40 20 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) -4-2 0 2 4 ln Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) 8 4 0-4 -8 ln TPP (wet mg L -1 ) TPP = 0.74 + 0.21 x [Chl a] F 1,1047 = 48.11, P < 0.001 R 2 = 0.04 ln TPP = -0.78 + 0.34 x ln [Chl a] F 1,1047 = 77.65, P < 0.001 R 2 = 0.07 From LEPAS
Chlorophyll a Concentration & TPP TPP (wet mg L -1 ) 80 60 40 20 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) -4-2 0 2 4 ln Chl a Conc (ug L -1 ) 8 4 0-4 -8 ln TPP (wet mg L -1 ) TPP = 0.74 + 0.21 x [Chl a] F 1,1047 = 48.11, P < 0.001 R 2 = 0.04 ln TPP = -0.78 + 0.34 x ln [Chl a] F 1,1047 = 77.65, P < 0.001 R 2 = 0.07 From LEPAS Conroy et al. In press. JGLR
Cylindrospermopsis spp. in Lake Erie Sandusky West Bay Site 29 July 2005 Conroy et al. in prep.
Other Hypotheses for LE Change Dreissenid nutrient remineralization Particulate Soluble? Nearshore/Offshore differences? Disparate effect on N-pool Why Microcystis spp. now vs. N-fixers in 1970 s? Conroy et al. 2005. Freshw. Biol. 50: 1146-1162 Algal Loading PP from Sandusky Bay affects offshore dynamics More on these topics at IAGLR 2006 Conroy et al. in prep.
Future Research Needs Continue LEPAS Quantify annual plankton spatial/temporal variability Further investigation of climatic factors Include water temperature Chl a:tpp in Lake Erie Taxa contributions Seasonal variation Ecosystem nutrient analysis Hierarchical process modeling Near/offshore? Trophic levels?
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