Implications of National Biofuel and Biomass Policies for Global Forests Brent Sohngen AED Economics, Ohio State University University Fellow, Resources For the Future Sohngen.1@osu.edu Note: References provided upon request
US and European policies are placing lots of demands on forests for biomass energy. Estimates indicate that achieving growth in biofuels from forests will come at a steep cost. Costs: extraction, competition, lost opportunities. 2
Biomass as a source of energy has been declining historically Source: Victor & Victor, 22 3
Are recent trends reversing this? Proportion total electricity.35.3.25.2.15.1.5 % EU electricity from nonbiomass renewables % US electricity from nonbiomass renewables % EU electricity from biomass % US electricity from biomass 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 29 Source: US DOE (EIA) and European Commission 4
In US, trends are reversing due to biofuels, not wood based biomass.6.5 proportion of total energy.4.3.2.1 US biomass share of total energy US nonbiomass renewable share of total energy US Wood share of total energy US biofuels share of total energy 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 29 5
In US, most wood used for energy is in industrial and residential sectors Million m3 25 2 15 1 Residential Commercial Industrial Electricity US Wood Used for Energy 5 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 29 6
Wood used for energy is big 6 5 Total wood used for energy Million m3 4 3 2 Total wood harvested for industrial markets 1 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 29 7
Can we increase the share of energy from wood? Around 2% of total energy 2 Quadrillion btus, 8 billion ft 3, or 226 million m 3 Doubling to 4 Quads, or 4%, would require an additional 226 million m3 Do we have it? 8
How much more wood is possible? Net growth of US private forests 2 1.8 18 1.6 million m3 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 Net growth in US forests (GSV+res) 1.4 1.2 1.8.6.4 Quadrillion btus 2.2 1977 1987 1997 27 9
Regardless of physical or economic constraints Federal energy legislation: Energy Independence and Security Act of 27 (EISA) Cellulosic ethanol. State level renewable energy standards RES, RPS, etc.
Federal/State Energy Policy EISA (27) requires large increase in ethanol, most of which must come from cellulosic ethanol, advanced ethanol or biodiesel 4 35 billion gallons 3 25 2 15 1 5 Advanced Biofuels Cellulosic Ethanol Biodiesel Corn based Ethanol Actual Ethanol Consumption 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 Source: US EPA 11
Federal/State Energy Policy Combining cellulosic ethanol and renewable energy standards for electricity, the increase on resource demands will be dramatic. Note: Assume 7-9 gallons per dry ton; EIA, AEO est. of biomass for state RES. million m3 per year 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 RFS Cellulosic Last 1 yrs 5 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 12
Cellulosic ethanol and RES will cause major disruptions in markets... 7 6 Wood harvests for Industrial and biomass purposes million m3 per year 5 4 3 2 Base Scenario Scenario RW Scenario Residues Mandate 1 21 22 23 24 25 13
Extra wood largely from imports million m3/yr 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 RW Imports in biofuel scenario Biofuel consumption RW Imports in baseline 21 22 23 24 25 14
In the baseline: Large growth in harvests outside US million m3 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 21 22 23 24 25 ROW US EU SA OC 15
Why? Yields are high Cubbage et al. (28) Sedjo (1983) ca. 1978 Rotation m 3 /ha m 3 /ha/yr Rotation m 3 /ha m 3 /ha/yr Annual Increase (%) Brazil 15 45 3 15 24 16 2.1% 15 525 35 16 345 22 1.6% Chile 19 49 26 27 513 19 1.% New Zealand 28 48 17 23 4 18 -.1% South Africa 3 526 14 2 287 15 -.2% USA 27 369 14 33 326 1 1.1% 45 833 19 4 572 14.9% Average 22. 16.2.9% 16
Why is it so hard to increase output? Marginal costs of extracting residues are high Marginal costs of competing with alternatives Marginal opportunity costs of increasing production. 17
Marginal costs of extracting residues $/ton Marginal Extraction Cost Willingness To Pay Figure 8 from Perlack et al. (25) Sawtimber Pulpwood Residue 18
Residue costs > fuelwood WTP $/ton Marginal Extraction Cost Eastern US: >$45/dt to deliver Western US: > $52/dt to deliver Willingness To Pay Eastern US: $3-$35/dt Sawtimber Pulpwood Residue 19
Competing with alternatives 3 25 PNWW SW Sawtimber (Haynes) South SW Sawtimber (Haynes) South SW Pulpwood (TMS) South HW Pulpwood (TMS) South fuelwood (F2M) $/dry ton (29 USD) 2 15 1 5 1977 1987 1997 27 2
Southern Pine Example High site loblolly stand in Alabama 3 25 $/ton dry matter 2 15 1 5.5 1 1.5 tons dry matter per acre 21
Conclusion Data points to increased demand for biomass energy from forests globally, but particularly within the US and EU. Current proposals suggest large impacts in forests, but only marginal increases in US timber harvests. Marginal costs are high; low cost provider is outside the US. Imports rise. 22