Energy and Climate Security for a World of 10 Billion People Dr. Gerhard Knies,Dr. Oliver Steinmetz & Mouldi Miled DESERTEC Foundation Alexandrie 31 mars 2010
Agenda - The Context The Concept From Concept to Organisation DESERTEC Foundation DESERTEC s Industrial Initiative
Strategic Objectives Energy and Climate Security for a World of 10 Billion People
Climate Change is changing living conditions on Earth CC is REAL CC can get OUT OF CONTROLE: Δ T<2 amust CC is FAST: 25 years left for T < 2 CC is MAN-MADE: MADE who did it? (we know him!) Continued CC is CRASH for humankind: stop it! Stop it! -- Who? How? DESERTEC: Clean Power from Deserts for a sustainable world with10 billion people is a promising approach to stop CC in due time
World-Population 1800-2100 & Earth s carrying cap. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/file:world-population-1800-2100.png 10 bn NOW 5 bn Earth Carrying capacity: 5 bn 3 bn
Clean energy key to Humankind Security stability issues for an Earth with 10 billion people Limit POPULATION to 10 bn people more Civilization & wealth per cap Global and inter-generational justice Clean and sufficient energy/power can give for 10 bn people ecological and social stability more WATER desalination reprocessing more FOOD Irrigation, fertilizer distribution Bio Diversity Climate stability 6
Power demand & supply scenario (TWh/y) in MENA and EU Electricity [TWh/y] 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 + 600 % Desalination Export Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil / Gas Coal Nuclear MENA: Transition Mix 2000-2050 including export to Europe and power for water desalination 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: DLR studies Electricity [TWh/y] 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 Year mport! I 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil Gas Coal Nuclear EU: By clean power from deserts EU may gain 10-15 years in the fight against climate change, by importing 17% from MENA Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable energies, nuclear energy can be phased out completely, and oil, gas and coal largely.
Potential of Renewable Energies in EU-MENA Potential for electricity production in TWh/a Biomass Geothermal Solar 1.350 TWh/a 1.100 TWh/a 630.000 TWh/a DESERTS: 6 hours sun shine = world energy demand 1 year 1.950 TWh/a 1.350 TWh/a Max Wind Hydro Min
How much power will be needed by 10 billion people? 1. 2. 3. 4. 2050 average power per person and year 2050 electro mobility per person and year World population 2050: 9-10 billion people 2500 solar hours per/y: Data 2006 World 3.1 OECD 8.6 USA 12.2 India 0.9 Germany 6.4 5MWh/y 1MWh/y km/person: 10,000 Germany 2007: 13,000 person/car 2 Electr./100km: 20kWh 60,000000 TWh/y (+/- 20%) 2009: 18,000 TWh/y in 2050: 50% as solar power from DESERTS DESERTEC for 30,000 TWh/y (+/- 20%) 12,000 solar GigaWatt collectors globally 35 years, 1GW/day Saving the planet will become largest business case of the decades ahead of us 9
DESERTEC Concept for EU-MENA 1/7 th of world 1,400 GW solar collector capacity Studies by DLR for EUMENA region -MED-CSP - TRANS-CSP for German gov t CLUB OF ROME White Paper 2009 www.desertec.org Sketch of a possible infrastructure t for a sustainable supply of power to Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (EU-MENA)
Powerhouse desert for the world 12,000 solar GigaWatt from Deserts + HVDC super grid to a World with 10 billion People 3000 km 10% loss Within 3000 km from deserts: To more than 90% of world pop clean power from deserts available. 11
Social Consequences The wealth, well-being and peace of our partner countries in and near desert regions depends on Access to energy DESERTEC power Access to water DESERTEC desalination Conflicts, e.g. Jordan river: Israel / Palestine / Gaza Access to food even in currently arid regions?! Birth rates are inversely proportional to wealth!
A sustainable energy system for a world population of 10 billion is feasible There are many clean and renewable sources: Solar (PV and CSP), wind, waves, tidal, hydro, biomass, geothermal, 7 criteria i for a global l solution: 1. climate security 2. enough for 10 billion people, 3. accessible to >90% of world pop. p 4. long term source security 5. sufficiently fast deployable (1GW/day): 6. cost stability 7. available by demand There is to my knowledge only 1 such source complying with all 7 criteria: Solar power from deserts generated e by CSTP because of heat storage for day+night operation, best global availability 13
Concentrating solar collector technologies: basic layout schemes Absorber Tube Absorber tube and reconcentrator Curved mirror Linear Concentration conc: 100, T: ~ 500 C Curved mirror Pipe with thermal fluid Parabolic Trough Linear Fresnel Receiver / Engine Reflector Solar Receiver Point Concentration conc: 1000+, T: ~ 1000 C Dish/Engine Heliostats t Central Receiver
Parabolic trough collectors Kramer Junction USA, 1990
Andasol 1: Andalusia, Spain, operating since 2009 molten salt heat storage = solar power day+night 16
Cost for CSP power plants + EU-MENA Supergrid for 15% of EU consumption Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 Transfer Capacity GW 2x5 8x5 14 x 5 20 x 5 Electricity Transfer TWh/y 60 230 470 700 Capacity Factor 060 0.60 067 0.67 075 0.75 080 0.80 Turnover Billion /y 3.8 12.5 24 35 Land Area CSP 15 x 15 30 x 30 40 x 40 50 x 50 km x km HVDC 3100 x 0.1 3600 x 0.4 3600 x 0.7 3600 x 1.0 Investment CSP 42 143 245 350 Billion grid HVDC 5 20 31 45 Elec. Cost CSP 0.050 0.045 0.040 0.040 /kwh HVDC 0.014 00 0.010 00 0 0.010 00 0 0.010 00 0 Power plants 17
Where is the energy/climate problem? Resources Energy resource DESERT : over-abundant Capital: existing Initial DELTA-Financing to be solved Technologies Solar techno (CSP): working Heat storage techno: working Wind techno working HVDC transmission techno.: working Desalination techno working Implementation 1 GW CSP collector per day feasible 18
DESERTEC from Concept to Organisation
DESERTEC Foundation Non-profit foundation, founded 2008 in Berlin Objectives Roadblock Remover for clean energy from deserts Worldwide lobbying for favourable political & financial conditions Defending environmental and social standards Building alliances, mobilise partners, drive pilot projects Spreading know-how, promoting best practices Co-ordinating activities around the Globe Helping countries learn from each other Founders Private persons from the worldwide TREC network from their own money Additional Co-Founders, Sponsors, Partners welcome
DESERTEC Foundation Objectives Concept Feasibility studies to answer per country! - the questions What for? What? How? When? Acceptance on the ground Inform / infect (seminars, Conferences ) Involve: Politics, Business, Academic, Civil Society Realise projects & pilot projects Achieve willingness / Buy-in To invest: Incentives, Partnerships (De)regulation Finance
DESERTEC s Industrial Initiative (DII) Project company DII GmbH, founded October 30 th 2009 Shareholders Currently screening additional shareholders and partners, preferably from additional countries
DII Objectives In 3 years 2010-2012 Creation a of ffavourable regulatory and dlegislative l environment Development of a roll-out plan Proposal of concrete reference projects Additional or more detailed studies, where needed (e.g. on feasibility) Pilot projects already during these 3 years Fostering local / regional development!
How to implement? 3 Phases for a DESERTEC roll-out programme DESERTEC GLOBAL DEPLOYMENT PLAN A rough implementation scheme: Phase 1 6 years HIGH SPEED MARKET INTRODUCTION 20 GW 2010-2015 policy driven external financial support : Phase 2 20 years COLLECTOR PRODUCTION SCALE UP 2016 2035, market driven 3 500 GW/year: +30% p.a., duplication in 2.5 years Phase 3 25 years HIGH SPEED DEPLOYMENT 2025 2050, market driven average 1.2 GW-coll/day, investment ca. 3 bn /day Fast completion of phase 1 = key to success! Main task for DESERTEC Foundation 24
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