Multiparty government in Europe: How many, how big, where, and in what

CHARLES LEES, UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD Multiparty government in Europe: How many, how big, where, and in what context? Presentation to Coalition at One Conference, 29 th -30 th of June at the Institute for Government, 2 Carlton Gardens, London SW1Y 5AA, UK

SUMMARY How many? o 424 Western European Governments by type, 1945-1999 How big? o 239 Western European Coalitions by type, 1945-1999 Where? o 424 Western European Governments by country by type, 1945-1999 o 239 Western European Coalitions by country by type, 1945-1999

SUMMARY In what context? o Electoral and Party Systems o Key structural attributes of the polity o Coalition agreements o Conflict and conflict management Conclusions

HOW MANY? Figure 1. 424 Western European Governments by type, 1945-1999 250 239 200 167 150 100 50 0 18 N Single-Party Governments N Multi-Party Governments N Other Goverments Source: data adapted from Mitchell and Nyblade, 2008

HOW BIG? Figure 2. 239 Western European Coalitions by type, 1945-1999 120 108 100 83 80 60 40 48 20 0 N Minimal Winning Coalitions N Surplus Majority Coalitions N Minority Coalitions Source: data adapted from Mitchell and Nyblade, 2008

WHERE? Figure 3. 424 Western European Governments by country by type, 1945-1999 Lux NL Fin Bel Ger Aus Fra Ita Por Den Ire Nor Gre Swe Spa UK 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % Single party governments % Coalition governments % Other (including transitional or non-partisan governments) Source: data adapted from Müller and Strøm, 2008

WHERE? Figure 4. 239 Western European Coalitions by country by type, 1945-1999 Den Nor Ire Swe Ita Fin NL Fra Bel Por Gre Ger Aus Lux 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % Minority Coalitions % Minimal Winning Coalitions % Surplus Majority Coalitions Source: data adapted from Müller and Strøm, 2008; Mitchell and Nyblade, 2008

IN WHAT CONTEXT? Electoral and Party System context o Proportionality of electoral systems (Least Squares Index) o Effective-number of parties (Laakso-Taagepera Index) Key structural attributes of the polity o Bicameralism o Federalism o Consociationalism Coalition Agreements Conflict and conflict management o Types of conflict (Tangential and Divergent Preferences; constant-sum and variable-sum games) o Arenas for conflict management (Internal; Mixed; External)

IN WHAT CONTEXT? Figure 5. Government type for 16 European party systems by relative disproportionality of electoral systems and effective number of parties, 1990-2010 10 9 'Effective number' of parties in parliament 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Netherlands Denmark Sweden Austria Belgium Finland Italy Norway Luxembourg Germany Ireland Portugal Spain Greece UK France 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Disproportionality of electoral system Source: Lees, 2011

IN WHAT CONTEXT? Table 1. 14 coalition-prone systems by key structural attributes Country Bicameral? Federal? Consociational? Austria Yes Yes No Belgium Yes Yes Yes Denmark No No No Finland No No No France Yes No No Germany Yes Yes No Greece No No No Rep of Ireland Yes No No Italy Yes No No Luxembourg No No No Netherlands Yes No Yes Norway No No No Portugal No No No Sweden No No No Sources: data adapted from World Resources Institute; ACE Electoral Knowledge Network; The Electoral Systems Website (http://www.tcd.ie/political_science/staff/michael_gallagher/elsystems/index.php

IN WHAT CONTEXT? Table 2. 12 coalition-prone systems by number and content of coalition agreements, 1945-1999 Country N Mean size Mean % general procedural rules Mean % specific procedural rules Mean % distribution of offices Mean % distribution of competencies Mean % policies Austria 14 6,593 18.6 14.1 10.8 8.1 48.2 Belgium 16 14,166 1.3 5.0 0.5 0.6 92.8 Denmark 5 3,619 0 12.4 0 0 87.4 Finland 33 1,163 0 0 0 0 100 France 5 1,976 1 0 0 0 99 Germany 10 5,934 7.4 1.2 0.1 0 91.4 Rep of Ireland 6 10,161 0 0 0 0 100 Italy 1 3,680 38.1 23 0 7.5 31.3 Netherlands 11 14,223 2.9 4.1 0.3 2.4 90.4 Norway 8 12,435 0 0.5 0 0 99.5 Portugal 3 13,746 16.5 4.9 1.5 0 77.1 Sweden 7 2,443 0 2.6 0 0 97.4 Source: Table adapted from Müller and Strøm, 2008

IN WHAT CONTEXT? Table 3a. 14 coalition-prone countries by most commonly used arenas for cabinet conflict Country N Internal Mixed External Other arenas Inner Cabinet Cabinet Committe e Coalition Committee Cabinet + Parliamenta ry Leaders Parliament ary Leaders Party Summit Austria 17 100 Belgium 28 57 43 Denmark 17 100 Finland 33 3 94 3 France 17 100 Germany 18 6 44 11 39 Greece 2 50 50 Rep of Ireland 10 20 80 Italy 34 62 38 Luxembourg 16 50 50 Netherlands 23 61 39 Norway 7 57 43 Portugal 6 67 33 Sweden 7 43 57 Notes: Percentages of countries cabinets; Source: adapted from Anderweg and Timmermans, 2008

IN WHAT CONTEXT? Table 3b. 14 coalition-prone countries by conflict management areas for most serious cabinet conflicts Country N Internal Mixed External Other arenas Inner Cabinet Cabinet Committe e Coalition Committee Cabinet + Parliamenta ry Leaders Parliament ary Leaders Party Summit Austria 17 53 47 Belgium 28 21 11 68 Denmark 17 100 Finland 33 6 52 42 France 17 12 6 Germany 18 56 6 39 Greece 2 100 Rep of Ireland 10 100 Italy 34 62 Luxembourg 16 25 38 37 Netherlands 23 48 52 25 Norway 7 86 14 Portugal 6 100 Sweden 7 100 Notes: Percentages of countries cabinets; Source: adapted from Anderweg and Timmermans, 2008

CONCLUSIONS Coalition government most common form in Western Europe since 1945 Varieties of coalition (Minority; Minimal Winning; Surplus Majority) Context is hugely important o Electoral and Party Systems o Key structural attributes of the polity o Coalition agreements o Conflict and conflict management Used with caution, Western European data can illuminate aspects of UK coalition

Thank you for your attention