Poultry Feeding Challenges in the 21 st Century Janet Snow, PhD janet.snow@devenishnutrition.com
Outline Securing Feed Ingredients Making a Profit Utilizing Technology Feed and Food Safety Animal Welfare Managing Consumer Perception
USDA Projections to 2019
USDA Projections to 2019 Corn dominate the feed grain traded internationally and accounts for 76% of all coarse grain trade Barley 16% Sorghum 6% As livestock feeding has been commercialized the higher-quality feeds are in a greater demand e.g. corn and soybean meal http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/archive_projections/usdaagricultu ralprojections2019.pdf
World Corn Production, 2010-2011
US Corn Prices (US$/mt)
US Corn Usage by Segment, 1993-2010 Metric tons (millions)
US Corn Fed by Species, 1993-2010 Metric tons (million)
US Flooding 2011-Central Corn Belt Lincoln, NE
Drought in the Midwest Plains and South A brown and parched corn field shows the effects of a long Texas drought in Farmersville, Texas July 12, 2011. Credit: Reuters/Mike Stone
US Corn Forecast USDA (8/2011) estimates yields in 153 bpa(9.61 metric tonnes/ha) Experts are saying that is optimistic Revised estimates are 148 bpa(9.29 metric tonnes/ha) Results in lowest carryover in history Pushing DEC prices into the $8 per bushel or $314/mt range Hints at reductions in corn usage for ethanol or change in subsidies, but no real effect on corn price yet
US Corn Ending Stocks, 1940-2010 Metric Tons (thousands) 11 8.4*
Global Wheat Production and Export
Global Wheat Supply million tons http://www.igc.int/en/grainsupdate/sd.aspx?crop=wheat
Wheat Prices
Price Change in SBM $413/mt
UN Food and Agriculture Organization Meat stable Sugar 59%, Cereals 71%, Oils 53%, Dairy 14%, over LY
UN Food and Agriculture Organization 6/11 vs6/10 39% May to June 11 1%
UN Food and Agriculture Organization -Deflated
EU s Rising Feed Costs http://www.poultryinternationaldigital.com/poultryinternational/201109#pg14
Rising Feed Costs Equates to a 70% increase in poultry feeds over LY CBOT experts are predicting corn could reach $12/bu($471/mt) Other cereals and oilseeds follow closely to the corn market As corn prices rise, food prices will have to compensate
Making a Profit? Rising feed costs with no real indication of relief in the near future Low meat prices Need to raise meat and eggs in the best possible conditions e.g. health, space, feed and ultimate safest food quality AT THE LOWEST POSSIBLE COST
6% LY
Making a Profit? YTD 2011-Reality of the market Chicken breasts averaged $125/cwt($2.75US/kg) 16% lower than 2010 9% lower than the 5 year average In July, breast prices dropped 25% compared to LY 18% lower than the 5 year average A nutritionist from one of the largest US broiler companies said it cost them $1.50 to produce a pound of breast meat that they sell for $1.00 right now (end of Aug) Wings prices down 34% from LY 24% lower than 5 year average What s left on the bird to sell for a profit?
Remember. Meat price indices have not shown the tremendous increase like the cereals, oils, and other ingredients we feed So what is the answer? Innovate, Create and Find Efficiencies
Utilizing Technology to Create Efficiencies Enzymes Alternative ingredients-ddgs Utilizing Probiotic/Prebiotics Enhancing Nutritional Value of Meat/Eggs Nutritional Modeling Assisting Business Development e.g. QC/QA, Research, Safe Feed Safe Food Certification, Operating Efficiencies Product/Process Innovation Biotechnology-improve yields of crops
Survey on Enzyme Use http://www.wattagnet.com/poultry_nutrition_survey_shows_industry_investment,_us e_of_enzymes.html
Feed and Food Safety Path between ingredient suppliers and the meat and eggs is more transparent As feed providers, realize the accountability for the feed we use to create food Pathogenic bacteria (E. coli, Salmonella) Biosecurity via human, truck or product traffic
Animal Welfare
Manage and Educate Consumers http://www.contextmarketing.com/sources/feb28-2010/ethicalfoodreport.pdf
Manage and Educate Consumers http://www.contextmarketing.com/sources/feb28-2010/ethicalfoodreport.pdf
Manage and Educate Consumers Environmental impact Animal husbandry Humane Euthanasia Feeding practices-rendered materials Medicines used in feeds-3-nitro Overall presentation of the feeding operation
Conclusions Primary challenge will be feeding poultry economically while minimizing losses Followed by managing the consumer and animal welfare side of the business
Thank You! Janet Snow, PhD janet.snow@devenishnutrition.com