A Global Vision for Bioeconomy an International Delphi-Study Ulrich Hamm, German Bioeconomy Council
A Global Vision for Bioeconomy An international Delphi Study Ulrich Hamm Member of the German Federal Government s Bioeconomy Council Beate El-Chichakli Office of the German Bioeconomy Council Berlin, Global Bioeconomy Summit, 25 November 2015
Our Understanding of Bioeconomy Knowledge-based production and utilization of biological resources to provide products, processes and services in all economic sectors within the framework of a sustainable economic system 2
German Bioeconomy Council (GBC) Main Tasks 1. Advising policy! Delphi Study on promising research fields 2. Societal dialogue about bioeconomy 3. International networking! Delphi Postbox 3
What are we looking for? New ideas Evoking change over next 25 years Flagship Projects Breakthrough innovations Crosssectorial approaches Visions 4
Delphi Study: Approach Development of flagship projects by Council Collecting expert views & ideas Assessment of ideas by experts Creation of international think tank and network 5
Delphi Study Design Survey among a panel of experts - Assessments in 2 rounds Round 1: Request for project ideas Assessment & comments on 4 initial flagships Round 2: Feedback on Round 1 results Assessment & comments on initial & new flagships 6
Sampling Identifying of experts via Bioeconomy councils and clusters worldwide Scientific publications with keyword bioeconom Bioeconomy-related industry experts Civil society organizations (NGOs) 7
Delphi Study Participation Round 1 Round 2 Invited experts 2,274 292 Completed questionnaires 292 167 Response rate 12.8 % 57.2 % 8
Global Participation 1. Geography Residence: 49 countries, all continents (Round 1) Job location : 38 countries, all continents (Round 2) However: Strong bias towards Europe and especially Germany 2. Age Major group: Senior professionals between 50 and 59 years 9
Professional Background of Participants Science and research 65 % International & governmental agencies 12 % NGOs 6 % Industry & industry associations 5 % Policy 2 % Others 10 % 10
1. Bioprincipled City Key Aspects Bio City - weiming.com.cn Urban planning Architecture closed material & energy cycles cascading use of natural resources combined living & working spaces & biotopes green spaces provide ecosystem-services bio-inspired design solutions biobased building materials Urban production green industrial production in cities fresh food from urban farming 11
1. Bioprincipled City Assessment Bio City - weiming.com.cn Relevancy Score 74 % Desirability Score 91 % Feasibility - Time Horizon 36% 37% 1% 6% 17% 3% now un5l 2020 un5l 2030 un5l 2040 later than 2040 never 12
1. Bioprincipled City Bio City - weiming.com.cn Urban planning: closing material loops, cascading use, zero-waste Green industry production in cities Architecture: design solutions using bioprinciples Biobased materials for building 13
2. Artificial Photosynthesis Key Aspects Art Photo - ISTOCKPHOTO / GEOPAUL Renewable energy (hydrogen) Biofuel cells & biobatteries bacteria and algae enable efficient production replacement of fossil fuels energy supply on industrial scale powering small devices Hydrocarbon (sugar, starch) feedstock for chemical industry basis for food production 14
2. Artificial Photosynthesis Assessment Art Photo - ISTOCKPHOTO / GEOPAUL Relevancy Score 61 % Desirability Score 74 % Feasibility - Time Horizon 0% 6% 22% 34% 29% 8% now un5l 2020 un5l 2030 un5l 2040 later than 2040 never 15
2. Artificial Photosynthesis Art Photo - ISTOCKPHOTO / GEOPAUL Efficient production of hydrogen as renewable energy source Hydrogen (produced via AP) replaces fossil fuels Biofuel cells and batteries supply energy on industrial scale 16
3. New Foodsystems Key Aspects New Foodsystems - Wageningen University Healthy and sustainable nutrition alternative sources of protein principles for sustainable consumption in new food concepts balanced and healthy diets personalized nutrition Resource-efficient food value chains zero-waste sustainable agriculture reduction of input per food unit 17
3. New Foodsystems New Foodsystems - Wageningen University Relevancy Score 79 % Desirability Score 94 % Feasibility - Time Horizon 55% 3% 11% 23% 8% 1% now un5l 2020 un5l 2030 un5l 2040 later than 2040 never 18
3. New Foodsystems New Foodsystems - Wageningen University Zero-waste food value-chains Sustainable agriculture worldwide, lowers emissions by 80 % Balanced diets for all people Alternative protein sources accepted, reducing meat consumption 19
4. Global Governance Key Aspects Global Governance - diplomaticourier.com Worldwide policy mechanisms Global agreement principles & standards monitoring food security & eco-system performance trade in biobased products &services investment in ag. & biobased industries sharing knowledge and technologies intellectual property rights managing biosafety and biotic risks sustainability of biomass production, trade & use biotechnology & synthetic biology sustainable consumption of biobased products 20
4. Global Governance Assessment Global Governance - diplomaticourier.com Relevancy Score 70 % Desirability Score 82 % Feasibility -- - Time Horizon 35% 1% 1% 12% 12% 19% 18% 18% 14% 14% now now un5l 2020 un5l 2030 un5l 2040 later later than than 2040 2040 never never 21
4. Global Governance Global Governance - diplomaticourier.com Sustainability criteria for industrial use of biomass Sustainability criteria for production & trade of biomass Mechanism for monitoring & ensuring food security 22
5. Sustainable Marine Production Key Aspects Seafarms as additional biomass producers Sustainable production environmentally-friendly cultivation complementing fading yields of marine fishery algae as a source for food, feed and fine chemicals application of bioprinciples application of monitoring, modeling and simulation tools treating marine littering and filtering plastics 23
5. Sustainable Marine Production Assessment Relevancy Score 73 % Desirability Score 90 % Feasibility - Time Horizon 1% 7% 43% 33% 14% 2% now un5l 2020 un5l 2030 un5l 2040 later than 2040 never 24
6. Biorefineries 4.0 Key Aspects Biorefineries of the fourth generation own industrial sector converting carbon-containing waste energy-efficient processes residues as feedstock green & zero-waste Avoiding negative externalities saving land for food zero-waste circular economy 25
6. Biorefineries 4.0 Assessment Relevancy Score 75 % Desirability Score 92 % Feasibility - Time Horizon 1% 12% 43% 31% 12% 1% now un5l 2020 un5l 2030 un5l 2040 later than 2040 never 26
7. Developing Consumer Markets Key Aspects Education & training bioeconomy education at school training for entrepreneurs, engineers, farmers product life-cycle cost via apps/labels Citizen & consumer involvement two-sided communication systems participative approaches in policy contribution to sustainability projects collaboration in product development 27
7. Developing Consumer Markets Assessment Relevancy Score 67 % Desirability Score 80 % Feasibility - Time Horizon 38% 4% 20% 22% 12% 4% now un5l 2020 un5l 2030 un5l 2040 later than 2040 never 28
Priority Projects Where would you invest? 29
Conclusion: Need for Complementary Projects Biorefineries 4.0 Bioprincipled city Citizen / Consumer New Foodsystems Artificial Photosynthesis Sustainable Marine Production 30
Interested in collaborating? Delphi Postbox Ground Floor, Foyer B 02 Please leave your business card and indicate flagship project Or register online: www.gbs2015.com/resources 31