Operations Report Stephanie Monzon Manager, Markets Coordination MC Webinar January 22, 2019
Forecast Error (Absolute %) Load Forecasting Error (Achieved 80% of the Time) 4.0 3.5 On-Peak Average Off-Peak 3% Line 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.18 2.54 2.79 2.38 1.64 2.43 1.48 1.58 2.05 1.40 1.69 3.08 1.70 3.40 1.68 2.38 1.26 1.98 1.57 3.10 1.88 1.98 1.66 1.90 1.84 2.58 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2
PJM RTO Load Forecasting Analysis Average RTO load forecast error performance for December was 2.21%, within the goal of 3%. 3
Forecast Error (Absolute %) Peak Load Forecasting Error Outlier Days 8.0 7.0 01/15/18 07/30/18 09/10/18 6.0 06/07/18 5.0 12/22/17 05/07/18 12/23/18 4.0 3.0 02/17/18 03/06/18 04/13/18 08/06/18 10/30/18 11/09/18 2.0 1.0 0.0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 4
Peak Load Average Forecast Error by Zone Quarter RTO MIDATL AP CE AEP DAY DUQ DOM ATSI DEOK EKPC 2016 Q1 2.1% 1.8% 2.3% 1.5% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 2.6% 2.1% 2.4% 4.7% 2016 Q2 1.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.6% 2.3% 3.1% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 3.2% 3.6% 2016 Q3 2.0% 2.7% 2.5% 3.9% 2.3% 3.9% 3.5% 2.9% 3.1% 3.4% 4.0% 2016 Q4 1.1% 1.7% 2.3% 1.5% 1.8% 2.7% 2.3% 2.3% 1.8% 1.9% 3.6% 2017 Q1 1.0% 1.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.8% 2.1% 1.6% 2.2% 1.4% 2.0% 3.7% 2017 Q2 1.3% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 4.4% 2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 4.8% 3.6% 2017 Q3 1.9% 2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 2.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.4% 2.8% 3.6% 3.5% 2017 Q4 1.1% 1.5% 2.2% 1.6% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.3% 3.5% 2018 Q1 1.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.5% 2.1% 1.9% 1.5% 2.8% 1.3% 2.3% 3.5% 2018 Q2 1.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.9% 2.5% 3.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% 3.4% 3.7% 2018 Q3 1.6% 2.5% 2.6% 3.5% 2.1% 3.2% 3.4% 2.4% 2.8% 3.2% 3.7% 2018 Q4 1.3% 1.5% 2.3% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5% 2.0% 3.3% 5
Operations Metric (%) Excursions and Minutes Monthly BAAL Performance Score 100 99 98 97 96 99.8 99.9 99.8 99.8 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.8 99.7 99.8 99.8 99.8 146 106 99 101 91 88 76 69 Operations Metric (%) Excursions Outside Limits Minutes Outside Limits 52 48 46 50 51 45 42 30 29 40 28 29 33 29 30 30 15 15 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 PJM s BAAL performance has exceeded the goal of 99% for each month in 2018. 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 6
Emergency Procedure Summary Zero spinning events in the month of December One reserve sharing event with the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) The following Emergency Procedures occurred in December: 14 Post-Contingency Local Load Relief Warnings (PCLLRW) 7
RTO Generation Outage Rate - Monthly 30 Forced Outage Average (%) Total Outage Average (%) 60,000 Forced Outage Average (MW) Total Outage Average (MW) 25 50,000 20 40,000 15 30,000 10 20,000 5 10,000 0 12/1/2017 2/1/2018 4/1/2018 6/1/2018 8/1/2018 10/1/2018 12/1/2018 0 12/1/2017 2/1/2018 4/1/2018 6/1/2018 8/1/2018 10/1/2018 12/1/2018 The 13-month average forced outage rate is 4.22% or 8,903 MW. The 13-month average total outage rate is 14.46% or 30,667 MW. 8
Number of Outage Tickets 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2017-2018 Planned Emergency, Unplanned Transmission Outage Summary, and Total Total Unplanned Outages (greater than 2 hrs) Planned Emergency Note: Unplanned Outages" include tripped facilities. One tripping event may involve multiple facilities. 9
PCLLRW Count Vs. Peak Load 3 Months 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 RTO Peak Load PCLLRW Count 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 10
Spin Response PJM experienced no spinning events during the month of December 2018. 11
Perfect Dispatch Performance 100% 2018 Perfect Dispatch Performance - December 2018 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2018 Daily Performance 2018 YTD Performance 2017 YTD Performance 2016 YTD Performance 12
Monthly Production Cost Savings ($ in Millions) Cumulative Production Cost Savings ($ in Millions) Perfect Dispatch Performance $32 $28 Perfect Dispatch Estimated Production Cost Savings Through December 2018 Monthly Production Cost Savings Cumulative Production Cost Savings $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $24 $1,200 $1,100 $20 $1,000 $900 $16 $800 $700 $12 $600 $500 $8 $400 $300 $4 $200 $100 $0 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Month/Year 13
Perfect Dispatch Analysis The year-to-date Perfect Dispatch performance score through December 2018 is 90.08%. The estimated cumulative production cost savings through December 2018 is over $1.4 billion with over $52 million in savings in 2018. 14
Appendix 15
Forecast Error (Absolute %) Peak Load Average Forecast Error by Zone 5 4 3 2 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 1 0 2016 RTO MIDATL AP CE AEP DAY DUQ DOM ATSI DEOK EKPC 2018 16
Balancing Authority ACE Limit - Performance Measure Goal Measurement: Balancing Authority ACE Limit (BAAL) The purpose of the new BAAL standard is to maintain interconnection frequency within a predefined frequency profile under all conditions (normal and abnormal), to prevent frequency-related instability, unplanned tripping of load or generation, or uncontrolled separation or cascading outages that adversely impact the reliability of the interconnection. NERC requires each balancing authority demonstrate real-time monitoring of ACE and interconnection frequency against associated limits and shall balance its resources and demands in real time so that its ACE does not exceed the BAAL (BAALLOW or BAALHIGH) for a continuous time period greater than 30 minutes for each event. PJM directly measures the total number of BAAL excursions in minutes compared to the total number of minutes within a month. PJM has set a target value for this performance goal at 99% on a daily and monthly basis. In addition, current NERC rules limit the recovery period to no more than 30 minutes for a single event. 17
RTO Generation Outage Rate - Daily 35 30 FORCED OUTAGE RATE (%) TOTAL OUTAGE RATE (%) 70,000 60,000 FORCED OUTAGE RATE (MW) TOTAL OUTAGE RATE (MW) 25 50,000 20 40,000 15 30,000 10 20,000 5 10,000 0 12/1/2017 2/1/2018 4/1/2018 6/1/2018 8/1/2018 10/1/2018 12/1/2018 0 12/1/2017 2/1/2018 4/1/2018 6/1/2018 8/1/2018 10/1/2018 12/1/2018 The 13-month average forced outage rate is 4.22% or 8,903 MW. The 13-month average total outage rate is 14.46% or 30,667 MW. 18
Perfect Dispatch Performance Measure Perfect Dispatch refers to the hypothetical least production cost commitment and Dispatch, achievable only if all system conditions (load forecast, unit availability / performance, interchange, transmission outages, etc.) were known and controllable in advance. While being hypothetical and not achievable in reality, this is useful as a baseline for performance measurement. The Perfect Dispatch performance goal is designed to measure how well PJM commits combustion turbines (CTs) in real time operations compared to a calculated optimal CT commitment profile. The Perfect Dispatch performance measure is calculated as 100% x (The accumulative year-to-date optimal CT production cost in Perfect Dispatch / The accumulative year-to-date actual real-time CT production cost). The Perfect Dispatch performance goal was removed as a goal beginning in 2015. Currently Perfect Dispatch does not have a performance goal, but the metric will continue to be tracked. The cumulative Estimated Production Cost Savings helps to demonstrate the savings that result from PJM s process changes since the inception of the Perfect Dispatch analysis in 2008. This estimate is determined by comparing the Perfect Dispatch performance for all resources to benchmarks set at the beginning of the Perfect Dispatch analysis. A benchmark of 98.18% is used for comparison of the 2018 metric which is 98.56% through the end of December. 19