Water Energy Food Nexus in Arid Land (GCC) Dr. Mohamed Darwish Principal Investigator QEERI May 9 2013 www.qeeri.org.qa
CONTENT Background; GCC are rich in prime energy (oil +NG); very poor in renewable water resources, and food growing Energy: Consumed NG and oil increasing rate much higher than production increasing rates, less fuel exported Water: renewable very limited, extraction several times the replenishment, non conventional DW and TWW expensive and energy extensive Food: limited water and arable land much less than needed to satisfy food requirements. Nexux: Food Water Energy Relation Conclusion
BACKGROUND WATER ENERGY FOOD RELATION Water, food, and energy are necessary for man Food depends on agriculture that needs land, water and energy for growing food. Water needs energy for pumping, distribution, and treatment; especially in GCC where DW and TWW, main water resources, need energy. Growing communities in GCC need more power, that requires more water, that uses more power, and so on. In GCC, attaining food self-sufficiency, very questionable, almost impossible, due to water scarcity, and costly non-conventional water resources, DW and TWW
Annual Cereal production in the GCC Cereal ; high priority for food security. One kg needs 1400 kg water. Cereal production is (and should be) limited. Agriculture exploits the very limited natural water resources GCC
Renewable water resources and per capita share in the GCC Average share (m 3 /y.ca) Country/ Sub- Natural Water 2010 2030 2050 Region Resources (M m 3 ) Bahrain 116 92 70 64 Kuwait 20 7 5 4 Oman 1400 503 389 374 Qatar 58 33 24 22 SA 2400 87 62 53 UAE 150 20 14 12 GCC 4144 95 68 59 Yemen 2100 87 51 34 GCC and Yemen 6244 92 61 47 GCC among the poorest in the world in Renewable water resources
Figure 1. The Water-Food-Energy Nexus, [3] Water, energy and food strategic requirements. Closely interlinked, Deep security concerns, To be considered together. GCC key challenge to manage energy, water and food in sustainable way to ensure high living standards and growth
Natural water resources: was 3000 m3/y.ca in 1961. Declined to 800 m 3 /y.ca in 2008. Expected to be 500 m 3 /(y.ca) in 2015. GCC is more severe, <100 m 3 /y.ca, In 2010, 7 in Kuwait, 20 in UAE, and 33 in Qatar.
WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? GCC fast economic growth due to discovery and exporting of oil and NG Populations up from 34M in 2003 to 46.8 M at 2011, est. 49.8 M in 2013. Ex., Qatar 0.62 M in 2001, 1.951 M as 2011, 3 times in 10 y GDP predicted to be $1.5 trillion in 2013 from US$341.6bn in 2000 Question asked is: Can this economic growth be sustainable? GCC rich fuel resources, but: All GCC except Qatar, have NG shortage to operate PP, have to import NG, looking for nuclear or solar energy. Consumed energy drains fuel at higher rates than production rates. Water scarcity, hot summer necessitate consumed DW and EP high rates. EP to run AC systems in almost all buildings. DW satisfies municipal water needs 99.9% in Qatar and 93% in Kuwait. Summer AC load is responsible for 2/3 of the EP load, 50% all EP
WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? GCC Ecological footprint EF > Bio-capacity BC
GCC electric power consumptions by sectors (percentage) in 2009, Most EP used for residential AC, building codes needed
ENERGY
Between 2000-2010 Excessive energy consumption drains fuel resources (wealth) at higher rates than production rates. oil production rate increases at 20%, while consumption rate to 120%. GCC Primary Energy consumption in terms of Mtoe/y
Oil productions in GCC (in terms of 1000 bbl/d Oil Production in 1000 bbl/d Country. 2000 2010 % increase Kuwait 2206 2508 13.69 Oman 956 865-9.52 Qatar 757 1569 107.27 SA 9491 10007 5.44 UAE 2620 2849 8.74 Average 20%
Oil consumptions in GCC (in terms of 1000 bbl/d and in M tons/y) Oil consumption in1000 bbl/d Country 2000 2010 % increase Kuwait 249 413 65.86 Oman Qatar 60 220 266.67 SA 1578 2812 78.2 UAE 396 682 72.22 120.74
Natural gas production and consumptions in GCC NG Production in BCM NG Consumption in BCM Country 2000 2010 % increas e 2000 2010 % increas e Kuwait 9.6 11.6 20.83 9.6 14.4 50 Oman 8.7 27.1 211.49 Qatar 23.7 116.7 392.41 9.7 20.4 110.31 SA 49.8 83.9 68.47 49.8 83.9 68.47 UAE 38.4 51 32.81 31.4 60.5 92.68 130.2 290.3 123 100.5 179.2 78.31 All GCC, except Qatar need to import NG. UAE, NG exporter 30y ago, now importer. Iran (2 nd ), SA (4 th ) NG reserve consume all produced NG
Energy per capita for GCC compared to other countries SA now consumes 2.8 Mbbl/d. Business as usual trajectory of oil consumed and export would be equal that by 2028, with no oil available for export
SA consumed oil : 1.578 Mbbl/d in 2000 2.182 Mbbl/d in 2010, and 2.86 Mbbl/d in 2011. Consumed oil/y.ca in 2011 was 37.2 bbl/y.ca, vs 5 in Brazil and 10.5 bbl/y.ca in Germany, SA s oil balance on a business-as-usual trajectory, [14]
Same trend for Kuwait % Expected fuel consumption by all sectors and by CPDP, and % total fuel oil production of 2.5 m-bbl/d
Average annual EP in GCC is about 12,000 kwh/y.ca in 2010. 14,997 in Qatar, 18,320 (Kuwait), 11,044 (UAE), 9,814 (Bahrain), 5,933 (Oman), 7,967 (SA) Annual consumed EP increase in 2000 to 2008 7% (Bahrain), 5.1% (Kuwait), 6.3% (Oman), 5.6% (SA), 6.3% (UAE), and 9.3% (Qatar). Annual electric power consumption in kwh/y.ca
Electricity prices in comparison across sectors and countries High EP consumption is due its low cost, In Abu Dhabi, the EP cost/kwh in 2006 was 1.4 Cent for nationals 4 Cent for expatriates. Nationals consumed 71,000 kwh/y.ca 26,500 for expatriates.
NG is (and should be) the preferred fuel. NG has less negative effect on environment and cheaper than oil; SA and Kuwait are using oil heavily in PP due to NG shortage. Percentage of oil and NG used in EP production in the GCC
WATER Water essential for growing food; household; and industry. Water scarcities in GCC pose severe challenges such as: High costs DW and TWW generating, Degradation of soil in irrigated areas, Depletion and pollution of GW, and Wasteful use of already developed water supplies, Subsidies distorted incentives to conserve water use. Population growth and rising incomes, increasing food demands, i.e. greater water demand for producing food. Although domestic and industry use far less water than agriculture, growth consumption is rapid in these sectors
Withdrawal far more than renewable Renewable fresh water, water withdrawal, and DW in the Arab countries
Agriculture contribution to GDP in 2002 was 0.7% Bahrain, 0.4%Kuwait, 3.2% Qatar, 0.4%, SA, 5.1%, and 3.6% UAE. Should be limited to areas with renewable water sources, Use crops that need less water, and Adopting efficient irrigation techniques. SA will phase out purchases of locally produced wheat by 2016 to save water Agricultural use of water in GCC as % of total consumption, 2003-07
Municipal WW has be treated anyway before disposed to sea or inland. Additional treatment needed for its reuse in agriculture or any other application. Water reuse benefits: freshwater conservation, GW protection. Very limited amount of total withdrawal are treated in the GCC, Cost Range for Water Reuse
Total water withdrawal, raw WW generated, and TWW in the GCC Countries Total water withdrawal (10 9 m 3 / year) Total WW produced (10 9 m 3 year) Volume of TWW (10 9 m 3 /year) Volume of Reused TWW (10 9 m 3 /year SA 23,67 (2006) 0,73 0,652 0.166 Bahrain 0,3574 0,0449 0,076 0.0163 UAE 3,998 0,5 0,454 0.248 Kuwait 0,913 0,25 0,239 0.078 Oman 1,321 0,098 0,037 0.0023 Qatar 0,55 0,444 0,066 0.043
Water Desalination Current and expected demands for DW in the GCC, Arab countries, and world.
2012 estimated daily desalted water production in the GCC M3/d Country Thermal + SWRO + BW Thermal processes SWRO SA 13,530,973 5,426,131 5,479,792 UAE 9,753,024 7,411,069 2,209,065 Kuwait 2,134,253 1,461,136 275,254 Qatar 1,944,195 1,771,638 155,160 Oman 1,626,149 417,990 988,888 Bahrain 1,398,064 756,967 582,667 Total 30,386,658 17,244,931 9,690,826
DW COST MSF and ME-TVC fuel energy consumed 200 MJ/m 3 SWRO is 50 MJ/m 3 Fuel energy cost for thermal $56.54M/d and for SWRO, $7.93 M/d, if $100/bbl Total fuel cost for DW $64.48 M/d Total fuel energy cost per year $ 23.557 B/y When NG used in place of oil, NG fuel cost about 50% that of oil.
Total fuel energy cost per year $ 23.557 B/y This is fuel cost only. If fuel cost is 70% of total DW cost, Annual cost of DW production in GCC is $33.65 B/y, or $3.42/m 3. Heavy economic burden of using DW. In Qatar, DW was 373 Mm 3 /y in 2010, with $1.275B cost, More than 1/3 is leaked before reaching homes Annual increase 14% between 2004 and 2010, more than doubled in 6 y
HOW TO REDUCE WATER COST Several ways to reduce the cost of DW MSF, and ME-TVC should be substituted with SWRO Use of relatively cheap NG fuel, and not oil reduce DW DW quality is high, as well as its cost; its use should be limited to cooking and drinking TWW should be used for application that do not need high quality such as toilet flushing, gardening, etc. 600 l/d.ca daily municipal water far beyond basic needs, it is 246 l/d.ca in US, 215 in Sweden, and 104 in Netherland. lowest is in Oman, 146 l/d.ca Subsidies should be reconsidered to stop wasting water, and limited to basic needs.
FOOD Huge deficit, between consumed and produced food in GCC Water shortage, lack of arable land reasons for low in-sufficient to meet the needs Food imports in GCC region: USD25.8 B in 2010, or > 3% of region s GDP SA account 65% of the value. Trend to continue, estimated food imports is USD53.1B by 2020, with SA has 2/3 of total. Soaring of food prices in 2007 and 2008, motivates GCC to explore wideranging purchases of agricultural land from all over the world.
Food inflation rise after falling in 2009
The historical food import to the GCC
GCC Food Imports Estimates (USD billion) Country 2010 2015E 2020E Bahrain 0.7 1.1 1.6 Kuwait 2.3 3.6 5.3 Oman 2.1 3.3 4.8 Qatar 1.3 2.1 3.3 SA 16.8 24.5 35.2 UAE 3.6 5.5 8.4 GCC total 25.8 36.3 53.1
Percent of food commodities depends on imports in 2007
Import as a Proportion of consumption (2007)
WATER REQUIRED FOR FOOD Growing food in GCC stressed water region is challenge 3000 l/d.ca needed to grow his food, much more than 2-5 l/d.ca for drinking, and 20-300 l/d.ca for domestic uses The liters per kg of some produce as: 1,827 (wheat), 1,423 (barley), and 3,015 (olives). 15,415 (beef), 10,412 (lamb), 3,265 (eggs), 1,020 (milk) SA uses 3000 m 3 water/ ton wheat, three times global norm, Securing these prohibitively high amounts of water needed to grow food is hard to achieve. DW is very expensive to be used for agriculture.
WATER AND ENERGY RELATION IN DW PRODUCTION For MSF desalting 16 kwh/m3, equivalent to 300 MJ/m3, and 4 kwh/m3 pumping energy, total 20 kwh/m3. $0.12/kWh means $2.4/m3 for energy only, up to $3/m3 cost For SWRO desalting 5 kwh/m3 pumping energy, $0.12/kWh means $0.6/m3 for energy only, up to $1/m3 cost