Toward a sustainable energy future for Fiji Ravita Prasad and Atul Raturi The University of the South Pacific Fiji National University
Overview of Presentation Fijian demography Current energy usage Challenges Mitigation or Low carbon Transformation options Results from modelling using LEAP Way forward
Fiji Demography 2017 Census population was 884,887. GDP in 2016 at constant basic price was FJD 6.7 billion with average annual growth rate of 3%. Year GDP at constant basic price (FJD million) Annual % change 2011 5738.8 2012 5819.8 1.4 2013 6095.4 4.7 2014 6436.9 5.6 2015 6684.4 3.8 2016 6709.8 0.4 Average 3.2
Energy Situation Major users of imported fuels are power utility and the transport sector. For electricity generation, there are 4 main types: Grid based (Energy Fiji Limited (EFL) formerly known as Fiji Electricity Authority (FEA)) Off-grid electrification managed by Fiji Department of Energy Own power producers such as Vatukoula gold mine, outer island resorts, etc. Independent power producers; Fiji Sugar Cooperation and Tropik Wood Industries limited. For transport sector, there are: Land transport Maritime transport Domestic air transport
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Grid Electricity generated (MWh) % RE generation Electricity Generation Sector (Grid Connected) Hydro and diesel are the two major sources for generation. 1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 solar MWh wind MWh biomass (IPP) MWh Fossil fuel MWh Hydro MWh % RE 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Year Data source: (FEA, 2016)
FEA fuel demand (000 tonnes) Total cost (FJD million) For thermal generation: 120 100 HFO IDO Total cost 200 180 160 80 60 40 20 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Data Source: (FEA, 2016) Year 0
Grid electricity demand Domestic and non-domestic customers. 25% of total demand is domestic (residential) customers while the rest are from non-domestic (industrial and commercial customers). Annual Growth rate: Domestic demand = 4.6% commercial demand = 4.2% Total Demand = 4.3% 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Electricity consumption (GWh)900 domestic Non-domestic Data Source: (FBoS, 2018d) Year
Fossil fuel consumption in Transport Currently, there is no fuel consumption data publicly available from Land transport authority, Maritime Safety Authority and domestic aviation. Fiji Bureau of statistics is only recording the mineral fuel import in Fiji and re-export to other PICTs. This data was used to determine the retained import in Fiji and this amount of fuel was assumed to be consumed within Fiji.
Volume of imported fuel in Fiji (million Litres) Total cost of fossil fuel in Fiji (million FJD) For Transport fuel; 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 800 900 700 800 600 700 500 600 400 500 300 400 200 300 100 200 0 100-100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 Gasoline Kerosene Aviation turbine fuel ADO IDO HFO LPG total cost Data Source: FBoS
UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Goal 7 Affordable and Clean Energy Goal 7.1 By 2030, universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services 7.2 By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix 7.3 By 2030, double the rate of improvement in energy efficiency Indicator Percentage of population with access to electricity Percentage of population with access to clean fuels or technology Renewable Energy share in total final energy consumption Energy intensity measured in terms of primary energy and GDP
Access to electricity 4% 11% 89% 96% Electrified Non electrified Electrified Non electrified Census 2007 Census 2017 Data Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
Cooking Fuels % households Fuel 2007 2017 Electric 3 15 LPG 28 38 Kerosene 26 24 Open fire 36 19 2007 2017 Data Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics Electricity LPG Kerosene solar power biogas wood stove open fire other
Challenges and Threats to Energy Natural Disasters Fiji is susceptible to natural disasters such as flooding, land slides and tropical cyclones. Over the past decade (report from 2013), Fiji has experienced 17 cyclones. Recently, there has been TC Winston (category 5) in 2016 which did extensive damage to power infrastructure which led to nation wide power outage in addition to other infrastructure damage and loss of lives. TC Josie this year, brought with it a lot of rain which led to flooding and loss of lives.
TC Winston Damage to EFL grid Source: National Disaster Management office (NDMO, 2016).
Mineral product retained import (%) High ratio of fossil fuel import to total export Mineral product retained import as a percentage of total export ranges from 20-60%. The decreasing trend from 2006 is from the increasing value of total exports. 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Data Source: Fiji Bureau of Statistics
Dispersed islands within an island country Dispersion of islands in Fiji makes it difficult to provide grid electricity on every island. Hence, only three major islands have grid electricity while the rest have electricity access through REU of FDoE and resorts on islands have their own diesel generators. Fuel wood is the energy source for cooking in majority of the remote islands as well as in interior of the main islands. This leads to the challenge of providing modern fuel for cooking in rural areas. Transportation costs of fuels (diesel, kerosene and LPG) from mainland to smaller outer islands are significant. In addition, there is also the issue of timely availability of boats or ships to transport fuel to remote islands.
Transport sector fully dependent on imported fossil fuel Land transport, maritime transport and aviation are currently no using any alternative fuel apart from fossil fuel. One of the alternative GoF have introduced is reduced or no duty on hybrid vehicles so there has been rise in these vehicles on Fiji roads in the past two years. But there is no use of biofuels even though, B5 and E10 standards have been approved by cabinet.
To reduce our dependence on fossil fuels: In this work, two main sectors are considered: Grid electricity generation and Transport sector In electricity generation, new generation technologies such as solar, wind, biomass and hydro are considered to meet the growing grid electricity demand in the 3 main islands in Fiji; Viti Levu, Vanau Levu and Ovalau For transport sector, electric and hybrid cars and electric buses are considered and proper hull cleaning and propeller polishing are considered for maritime vessels. No measures are considered for immediate fuel reduction for air transport.
LEAP Tool used To carry out the modelling work: Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) tool was used. Base year is taken to be 2015/2016 and end year is taken to be 2040. For grid electricity, Energy Fiji Limited s annual report was used for demand while for existing generation technologies information and data was sought from personal communication with EFL. For Transport data; Land Transport Authority (LTA) and Maritime Safety Authority of Fiji (MSAF) provided registered vehicles and vessels. For transport activity data; questionnaire based surveys were conducted for land and maritime transport. Air transport activity data from FBoS was used.
Grid Electricity Demand (GWh) Grid Electricity demand 2500 2000 1500 Actual Projected Demand is projected to increase at 3.5% per annum. 1000 500 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 New capacity added in Solar priority scenario (MW) Total investmnet cost (USD million) Strategies to meet the demand 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 - New Wind_Ovalau New GCPV_Ovalau New Ovalau Biomass_Gasification New Wailevu Hydro_VNL New GCPV_VNL New Nadago Biomass_VL New Qaliwana upper Wailoa Hydro_VL New GCPV_VL New Nausori Biomass_Thermal New Namosi Hydro New FSC_Rarawai Biomass_Thermal New Wailoa Hydro downstream New FSC_LTK Biomass_Thermal New Vuda Biomass_Thermal Investment cost 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 - New generation technologies were mostly added after 2025 because the current generation capacity is able to meet future demand at planning reserve margin set at 40%. New Investment Cost (USD million) Viti Levu 690 Vanua Levu 42 Ovalau 50 Total 781
Electricity Generation (GWh) % RE Generation Electricity generation for MIT 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - New wind New solar New hydro New biomass Existing fossil Existing biomass Existing wind Existing hydro %RE generation 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 - % RE generation is increasing from 48% in 2015 to 77% in 2040. This is using conservative new generation capacities but no storage.
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 Transport sector Energy Demand (000 GJ) MIT for Transport (000 GJ) Energy Demand for transport sector BAU and MIT Scenarios 25000 Jet fuel_at Premix_MT MDO_MT 25000 Jet fuel_at Premix_MT MDO_MT 20000 LPG_RT Gasoline_RT ADO_RT 20000 LPG_RT Gasoline_RT ADO_RT 15000 15000 10000 10000 5000 5000 0 0
Total Energy requirement for electricity prodcution and transport for BAU (000 GJ) % Renewable Total Energy Requirement (Grid electricity +Transport): BAU Scenario 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 - Hydro Solar wind biomass geothermal IDO HFO ADO Gasoline LPG MDO Premix Jet fuel % Renewable Year
Total Energy Requirement for electricity production and transport for MIT (000 GJ) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 % Renewable Mitigation Scenario Total Energy Requirement 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 25 20 15 10 5 - Year Hydro Solar wind biomass geothermal IDO HFO ADO Gasoline LPG MDO Premix Jet fuel % Renewable
2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 BAU emissions (Gg of Co2-e) MIT scenario emissions (Gg of CO2-e) Total Emissions : BAU and Mitigation 3000 2500 2000 AT MT RT Electricity 3000 2500 2000 AT MT RT Electricity 1500 1500 1000 1000 500 500 0 0 Year Year
Strategies for way forward Increase Public-Private Partnership (PPP) The PPP Knowledge Lab of the World Bank Group defines PPP as long-term contract between a private party and a government entity, for providing a public asset or service, in which the private party bears significant risk and management responsibility, and remuneration is linked to performance.
Change customer behaviour In energy sector to increase renewable energy share in electricity generation and to decrease fossil fuel use in transport sector, the first thing is Changing People s Behaviour on how they use energy services or energy. Energy efficiency and conservation is relatively cheap but the investment in change in technologies for businesses or customers need to make financial gain. This process will take lot of time and it needs great deal of awareness creation.
Fiji is moving in the right direction by preparing New Building Standards, preparing a Minimum Energy Performance, Standards and Labelling (MEPSL) program, introduction of hybrid vehicles, plan for electric vehicles and other related programmes which in the long-term will promote energy efficiency and conservation.
Set Up Risk Mitigation Facilities RE and EE projects are perceived as high risk with regards to technology and cash flows by finance institutions. (Parthan et al., 2010) report that absence of risk mitigation facilities in developing countries is constraining the flow of private finance to lowcarbon energy investments. In Fiji, there can be introduction of new insurance product where insurance is provided for RE projects which covers natural disasters. Past resource data (wind or solar) can be studied to ensure reduction in resource supply risk for energy conversion. In addition, for biomass resource, long-term contracts with resource suppliers should reduce supply chain risk. An established and bankable contractor for construction minimizes the risks of a project not meeting its specifications. Conducive policies and an incentive framework reduce the risk in RE and EE market development.
Stakeholder Capacity Building and Development Another factor to minimize the risk of RE or EE failure is to educate consumers or community involved, that is, capacity building of stakeholders involved. Capacity building for all stakeholders can be carried out by the donor agency which sets up the RE or EE project or by GoF. Capacity building on setting up and managing a finance scheme for maintenance of RE or EE can minimize the risk of failure of RE or EE system. Financing institutions and decision makers should also be sensitized about sustainable energy project development. Capacity development for land owners to empower them about the sustainable use of their resources, especially in regards to biomass resources
Credible Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) for Renewable based power producers Currently, in Fiji there is no structure for feed-in-tariff (FiT) for electricity generated from different sources of electricity and in the different locations. (FCC, 2014) report the new minimum IPP tariff rate as 33.08 Fijian cents VEP/kWh. This rate is expected to boost IPP investment. However, this rate is for 24/7 energy providers; intermittent energy providers such as solar PV get much less.
Strengthen institutions and government departments supporting sustainable energy development The energy institutions in Fiji are responsible for energy planning, energy policy making, energy project financing, determination of energy prices (electricity tariff and fuel prices) and energy research. These institutions need to be well financed and adequately staffed to carry out its responsibilities effectively. For non-energy institutions who are indirectly involved such as land trust board, finance institutions, licensing of new business approvals from necessary departments, need to be adequately staffed and financed. In addition, work done by different departments directly involved in energy sector should plan an integrated approach so their actions would be efficient, effective, more transparent and more coordinated. To have a complete picture of energy scene there needs to be a national data repository where all energy related data are collected and available to stakeholders and investors.
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