Adoption dynamics in bioenergy: innovations in bioeconomy Blas MOLA-YUDEGO Production of non-food biomass (3 ECTS) blas.mola@slu.se
View Perspective
Plantations energy crops are this Farmers, practicioners, agronomist and foresters perspective, production, technology, biology
Management Cut-back Harvesting Boyd, J; Christersson, L; Dinkelbach, L. Growing energy from willow The Scottish Agricultural College, 2000
Plantations
Plantations energy crops are this Policy maker perspective, goals, objectives, shares Energy Mix
Views and background Natural Science Technology Biology Engineering Social Science Economics Social studies Policy making
Goal
Reaching the goal Yield Total area planted Natural Science Efficiency Managament Clonal material odt / ha yr Social Science Adoption studies Policy incentives Profitability ha toe, kwh, MJ
Policy Tools 1970s: Oil crisis, Swedish government ration gasoline and heating oil 1970: Research grants and investments on bioenergy developments. Includes plantations. 1980s: First commercial plantations 1980-1990s: Plan for de-regulation of Swedish agricultural sector 1990s: Programmes for economic/policy incentives for plantations 1995: Sweden joins the EU. CAP implemented
Policy Tools Swedish measures to encourage Willow cultivation a) SUBSIDIES 1991-1996: Generic subsidy of 1200 EUR/ha for farmers that would change from cereal to other activities 1991-1996: 1330 EUR/ha specific for willow production + 530 ECU for fencing b) TAXATION Taxes on sulphur and CO 2 in heat production increased. (biofuels exempted)
Plan & goal Policy incentives Subsidies Taxes Promotion Research (public) (Expressed in e.g. goals, objectives and plans) Helby, P., Börjesson, P., Hansen, A. C., Roos, A., Rosenqvist, H., & Takeuchi, L. (2004). Market Development Problems for Sustainable Bio-energy Systems in Sweden:(The BIOMARK Project). Environmental and Energy Systems Studies, Lund University.
Plan & goal Target for share of energy from renewable sources in final consumption of energy, 2020 Expectations
Policy Effects Policy incentives Subsidies Taxes Promotion Research (public) Thresholds and dates: 1986 1991 1995 2014? Mola-Yudego, B., Dimitriou, I., Gonzalez-Garcia, S., Gritten, D., & Aronsson, P. (2014). A conceptual framework for the introduction of energy crops.renewable Energy, 72, 29-38.
Meanwhile in UK 1990s 2000s Dimitriou, I., Mola-Yudego, M. 2014. Potential of short rotation forestry. In: What Science can tell us - Forest Bioenergy for Europe, European Forest Institute, 4: 75-79.
Energy policy: Austria capital grants local initiatives rooted in a mix of environmental concern self-interest of forest-owning farmers build-up of know-how and networking among the main stakeholders involved 1999 techno-economic performance guidelines as a minimum standard for obtaining grants: improve the technical efficiency and economic viability of plants Madlener, R. (2007). Innovation diffusion, public policy, and local initiative: The case of wood-fuelled district heating systems in Austria. Energy Policy,35(3), 1992-2008
Instruments Policy incentives are not coordinated The policy incentives are not symmetrical: placed on the supply side (specific to willow) not placed on the demand side (are generic for biomass for energy) Coordination? Mola-Yudego, B., Dimitriou, I., Gonzalez-Garcia, S., Gritten, D., & Aronsson, P. (2014). A conceptual framework for the introduction of energy crops.renewable Energy, 72, 29-38.
Somebody Produces biomass
Dynamics of adoption Hirsh Zvi Griliches (1930 1999) Economist at Harvard University. Economics of technological change, diffusion of innovations https://prabook.com/web/zvi.griliches/200937
Dynamics of adoption Griliches, Z. (1957). Hybrid corn: An exploration in the economics of technological change. Econometrica, Journal of the Econometric Society, 501-522.
Dynamics of adoption
Aggregated number of adopters Dynamics of adoption 80 Örebro 70 60 50 Sigmoidal observed 40 30 20 10 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 Mola-Yudego, B., & Pelkonen, P. (2008). The effects of policy incentives in the adoption of willow short rotation coppice for bioenergy in Sweden. Energy Policy, 36(8), 3062-3068.
Aggregated Ha planted Aggregated number of adopters Aggregated number of adopters Dynamics of adoption 1200 1000 800 600 400 Örebro Enköping Uppsala Eskilstuna 1994 70 60 50 40 30 20 Sigmoidal A Sigmoidal B Bi-sigmoidal observed Enköping 200 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 10 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 80 Örebro 70 Sigmoidal 60 observed 50 40 30 20 10 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 Mola-Yudego, B., & Pelkonen, P. (2008). The effects of policy incentives in the adoption of willow short rotation coppice for bioenergy in Sweden. Energy Policy, 36(8), 3062-3068.
Number of adopters Dynamics of adoption 1000 1991: new agricultural policy 900 800 700 600 500 400 Observed 300 Incentives 200 No incentives 100 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Mola-Yudego, B., & Pelkonen, P. (2008). The effects of policy incentives in Mola-Yudego, the adoption of B., willow & Pelkonen, short rotation P. (2008). coppice The for effects bioenergy of policy in Sweden. incentives Energy in the Policy, adoption 36(8), of 3062-3068. willow short rotation coppice for bioenergy in Sweden. Energy Policy, 36(8), 3062-3068.
Spatial dynamics of adoption Mola-Yudego, B., & Gonzalez-Olabarria, J. R. (2010). Mapping the expansion and distribution of willow plantations for bioenergy in Sweden: Lessons to be learned about the spread of energy crops. biomass and bioenergy, 34(4), 442-448.
Time & Spatial dynamics of adoption 1986-1990 1991-1996 1997-2005 Mola-Yudego, B., & Gonzalez-Olabarria, J. R. (2010). Mapping the expansion and distribution of willow plantations for bioenergy in Sweden: Lessons to be learned about the spread of energy crops. biomass and bioenergy, 34(4), 442-448.
ha 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 GWh Dynamics of adoption 1800 Örebro 700 1600 1400 Pow er plant (w ood consumption) 600 1200 1000 1996 500 400 800 600 400 200 planted by experienced grow ers planted by new grow ers 300 200 100 0 0 Mola-Yudego, B., & Gonzalez-Olabarria, J. R. (2010). Mapping the expansion and distribution of willow plantations for bioenergy in Sweden: Lessons to be learned about the spread of energy crops. biomass and bioenergy, 34(4), 442-448.
ha 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 GWh Dynamics of adoption 1800 Kristianstad 250 1600 Pow er plant (w ood consumption) 1400 200 1200 1000 1996 150 800 600 1993 100 400 200 planted by experienced grow ers planted by new grow ers 50 0 0
ha 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 GWh Dynamics of adoption 1800 Enköping 400 1600 1400 1996 Pow er plant (w ood consumption) 350 300 1200 1000 800 600 400 1994 planted by experienced grow ers planted by new grow ers 250 200 150 100 200 50 0 0
Adoption Profiling Roos, A., Rosenqvist, H., Ling, E., & Hektor, B. (2000). Farm-related factors influencing the adoption of short-rotation willow coppice production among Swedish farmers. Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section B-Plant Soil Science, 50(1), 28-34.
Adoption Economics
Mean annual yield (odt ha -1 yr -1 ) Adoption Yields Expected yields Previous studies showed the broad differences in performance for the first and second cycle between growers, under the same geographical conditions. 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1st Cutting cycle Commercial yields Best Management (5%) Good Management (25%) Average 0 2500 3500 4500 5500 6500 Productivity yield of oats (indicator) (t ha -1 yr -1 ) Mola-Yudego, B., & Aronsson, P. (2008). Yield models for commercial willow biomass plantations in Sweden. Biomass and Bioenergy, 32(9), 829-837.
Adoption Yields Large differences between trials and comercial level plantations Mola-Yudego, B., Díaz-Yáñez, O., & Dimitriou, I. (2015). How much yield should we expect from fast-growing plantations for energy? Divergences between experiments and commercial willow plantations. BioEnergy Research, 8(4), 1769-1777.
Reaching the goal Yield Adoption Total area planted Natural Science Efficiency Managament Clonal material odt / ha yr Social Science Adoption studies Policy incentives Profitability ha
Reaching the goal: model Local perceptions and attitudes Market Forces: - Demand - Opportunity costs - Alternatives Adoption Total area planted Yield Mola-Yudego, B., Dimitriou, I., Gonzalez-Garcia, S., Gritten, D., & Aronsson, P. (2014). A conceptual framework for the introduction of energy crops. Renewable energy, 72, 29-38.
Interactions Management profiles: Observed a category of farmers that significantly improve yields (25%), other not (25%) Experience: The plantations were classified according to the previous experience of the grower learning factor New varieties on the market, machines, methods, guidelines PRODUCTION CHANGES
Number of Growers Auto-correlation aka experience 25 20 15 +0.5 odt / ha a 10 5 0-5 -4-3 -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Difference to first plantations (odt ha -1 yr -1 ) Farmers Learn It is often forgotten than in a new technology, there is a learning curve that will affect the final outcome Mola-Yudego, B. (2011). Trends and productivity improvements from commercial willow plantations in Sweden during the period 1986 2000. biomass and bioenergy, 35(1), 446-453.
Willow yield (t ha -1 yr -1 ) Improvements Trends of SRF productivity New varieties + Experienced farmers + Better overall methods odt ha -1 a -1 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Average trend varieties released Average trend commercial plantations 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 projection 5000 kg ha -1 yr -1 4000 kg ha -1 yr -1 3000 kg ha -1 yr -1 2000 kg ha -1 yr -1 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Mola-Yudego, B. (2011). Trends and productivity improvements from commercial willow plantations in Sweden during the period 1986 2000. biomass and bioenergy, 35(1), 446-453.
Productivity change Best growers, changes in 10 years 0.00-0.50 0.51-1.00 1.01-1.50 1.51-2.00 2.01-2.50 2.51-3.00 3.01-3.50 3.51-4.00 4.01-4.50 4.51-5.00 5.01-5.50 5.51-6.00 6.01-6.50 6.51-7.00 7.01-7.50 7.51-8.00 8.01-8.50 8.51-9.00 9.01-9.50 9.51-10.00 10.01-10.50 Mola-Yudego, B. (2010). Regional potential yields of short rotation willow plantations on agricultural land in Northern Europe. Silva Fennica, 44, 1. 10.51-11.00 11.01-11.50
Reaching the goal: model Local perceptions and attitudes Market Forces: - Demand - Opportunity costs - Alternatives Adoption Total area planted Local Factors: - Climate - Soil Yield Economy of Scale Biotic events - Pests - Diseases Management: - Local practices - Local experience - General improvements R & D: Innovations: - New varieties - Global Experience - Efficiency Mola-Yudego, B., Dimitriou, I., Gonzalez-Garcia, S., Gritten, D., & Aronsson, P. (2014). A conceptual framework for the introduction of energy crops. Renewable energy, 72, 29-38.
The concept of Risk Helby, P., Börjesson, P., Hansen, A. C., Roos, A., Rosenqvist, H., & Takeuchi, L. (2004). Market Development Problems for Sustainable Bio-energy Systems in Sweden:(The BIOMARK Project). Environmental and Energy Systems Studies, Lund University.
Policy Wood chip prices Profitability Total production costs Local perceptions and attitudes Market Forces: - Demand - Opportunity costs - Alternatives Adoption Total area planted Local Factors: - Climate - Soil Yield Economy of Scale Biotic events - Pests - Diseases Management: - Local practices - Local experience - General improvements R & D: Innovations: - New varieties - Global Experience - Efficiency Mola-Yudego, B., Dimitriou, I., Gonzalez-Garcia, S., Gritten, D., & Aronsson, P. (2014). A conceptual framework for the introduction of energy crops. Renewable energy, 72, 29-38.
Reality hits Helby, P., Börjesson, P., Hansen, A. C., Roos, A., Rosenqvist, H., & Takeuchi, L. (2004). Market Development Problems for Sustainable Bio-energy Systems in Sweden:(The BIOMARK Project). Environmental and Energy Systems Studies, Lund University.
Goal fail?