Kapitel 3 Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH (ed.) Running dry? Climate change in drylands and how to cope with it
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5 Table of contents Acknowledgements 8 Foreword 9 Introduction 11 1 Executive Summary 13 2 Contribution of drylands to climate change 21 2.1 Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions from drylands 22 2.2 The role of land use and land-use change in local and regional climate change 26 2.2.1 Drivers of climate change in Africa s drylands 29 3 Climate change in dryland regions 33 3.1 Recent climate change 35 3.1.1 Global scale 35 3.1.2 Africa 36 3.1.3 Asia 38 3.1.4 Central and South America 39 3.2 Climate projections 39 3.2.1 Global scale 40 3.2.2 Africa 43 3.2.3 Asia 48 3.2.4 Central and South America 50
6 4 Impacts of climate change on drylands 53 4.1 Climate change an additional pressure 54 4.2 Drylands particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change 56 4.3 Impacts of climate change on desertification 59 4.4 Impacts of climate change on dryland ecosystems and biodiversity 60 4.5 Impacts of climate change on freshwater resources in drylands 63 4.5.1 Global scale 63 4.5.2 Africa 63 4.5.3 Asia 64 4.5.4 Central and South America 66 4.6 Impacts of climate change on agriculture 66 4.6.1 Global scale 66 4.6.2 Africa 72 4.6.3 Asia 80 4.6.4 Central and South America 81 5 Climate-change mitigation through sustainable land management 83 5.1 What does mitigation of climate change mean? 85 5.2 Challenges for mitigation of climate change 87 5.3 Mitigation potential and options in forestry 91 5.3.1 Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) an option for more investment in drylands? 94 5.4 Mitigation potential and options in agriculture 100 5.5 Carbon sequestration in drylands 104 5.5.1 Mitigation practices for carbon sequestration in drylands 108 Improved cropland management 109 Improved grazing land management 117 Restoration of degraded lands 120 Erosion management 121 Reclamation of salt-affected soils 121 Land-use change, afforestation, agroforestry 122 Bioenergy 130 5.5.2 Co-benefits of carbon sequestration in drylands 132 5.6 Carbon finance in the AFOLU sector 135 5.6.1 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) 135 5.6.2 The World Bank s BioCarbon Fund 139 5.6.3 Voluntary projects 141
7 6 Adaptation to climate change 143 6.1 What does adaptation to climate change mean? 145 6.2 Challenges for adaptation 147 6.3 Adaptation to climate change and sustainable development 149 6.3.1 How are they interrelated? 149 6.3.2 Integration of adaptation to climate change into development policies 151 6.4 Adaptation to climate change in drylands 157 6.4.1 Building on local and traditional knowledge 168 6.4.2 Developing and applying new measures Climate insurance as a form of risk management 170 6.4.3 Overcoming the convention egoism : a challenge for effective adaptation in drylands 172 6.5 Financing adaptation 175 6.5.1 Official Development Assistance (ODA) 175 6.5.2 The Adaptation Fund 176 6.5.3 GEF adaptation funds 179 Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) and National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) 180 The Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) 182 Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA) under the GEF Trust Fund 184 Community-Based Adaptation Programme 185 6.5.4 The World Bank s Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR) 185 7 Linkages between mitigation and adaptation in drylands 187 References 193 Annexes 204 Annex 1 Delineation of drylands 204 Annex 2 Delineation of sub-continental regions as defined by the IPCC 206 Annex 3 The emissions scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios 208 Annex 4 Exposure profiles a practical tool for climate-proofing 209 List of abbreviations 215 List of tables 218 List of figures 219 List of boxes 220 Authors 222
8 Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to their colleagues Barbara Kunz, Nana Künkel, Peter Saile, Matthias Seiche and Maximilian Spiegelberg for their support, fruitful discussions, constructive suggestions and contributions; to Simone Gigli for reviewing this study; to Julia Röhrig of the University of Bonn for her case study on Benin; to Doru Leonard Irimie, national focal point for the UNCCD in Romania, for his contribution to chapter 5.5.1; and to Christopher Hay for his thorough proofreading.
9 Foreword Dear reader, The risks associated with climate change have been a topic of discussion since the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. However, for the following 15 years, the climate and land community have largely ignored one another. Moreover, the issue of land degradation was not included in the Kyoto Protocol or other climate change negotiation fora. However, the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007, has brought about a rebound in mutual understanding. We have learned that climate change and land degradation are not only twin threats to sustainability of life on earth, but that they exacerbate one another. Today, we know that the world s soils hold more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation combined. Additionally, we know that land degradation is essentially symptomatic of soil carbon loss. Already, croplands, pastures, and forests in drylands are exposed to threats from climatic variability. Furthermore, we know that drylands account for the most vulnerable ecosystems to climate change. In the long run, climate change impacts, such as changes in temperature, shifts in growing seasons, storms, floods, droughts, and changed rainfall patterns, risk the livelihood of drylands populations. Therefore, adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change through sustainable land management is a crucial, though simultaneously challenging, task. In order to make climate change endeavors more effective, we need a thorough understanding of how global and regional change are inter-related. We also need a more detailed account of the effects of climate change in drylands that are already underway. Finally, we need meaningful information on how sustainable land management in developing countries can contribute to the mitigation of climate change. This publication provides a thorough overview and analysis of scientific results regarding climate change in drylands. This includes information on the inter-linkage between climate change and land degradation and the potential mitigation and adaptation measures. We hope the publication helps these crucial issues gain their rightful place within climate-change discussions. Luc Gnacadja Executive Secretary United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) Adolf Kloke-Lesch Director-General German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
11 Introduction Drylands cover more than one third of the world s terrestrial area. Land degradation in these regions is a driver of climate change. Conversely, dryland ecosystems and populations are among those most affected by the adverse effects of such change. Recent international climate policy debate and negotiation processes have put the spotlight on the interplay between land use, climate change mitigation and adaptation. This has raised the profile of drylands. New analyses and research produced in preparation for the 2 nd National Communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are giving an ever clearer picture of the country-level impacts of climate change. As yet, however, no comprehensive presentation of the linkages between land degradation in drylands and climate change and of the solutions in the realm of sustainable land management has been available. This book is the first to give a full overview of the state of affairs and science in this complex issue area. The analyses are supplemented by case studies of experience gathered in German development cooperation. The publication does not, however, lay claim to being a blueprint for future policy. It is organised in six thematic chapters. Chapter 2 sets out the contribution drylands make to climate change. In Chapter 3, the perspective is switched, with an overview of recent and projected climatic changes in dryland regions, followed up by a discussion in Chapter 4 of the impacts of global climate change in such regions. The next two chapters highlight a range of approaches towards tackling the challenges that ensue, in terms of mitigating climate change through sustainable land management and adapting to climate change impacts in drylands. Finally, Chapter 7 explores linkages between mitigation and adaptation. This book will provide a compendium for all scientists, development practitioners and policymakers with an interest in the major global environmental challenges: desertification and land degradation, biodiversity loss and climate change.