Preparing the UK for Transition to a Low Carbon Future IGEM, 23rd June 2015 2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. 2015 This information Energy is given Technologies in good faith based Institute upon the latest LLP information - Subject available to to notes Energy on Technologies page 1Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.
Agenda Introduction to the ETI Career path & challenges Preparing the UK for transition Q&A
What is the ETI? ETI technology programme areas ETI members ETI programme associate
What do we do? System level strategic planning Technology development & demonstration Delivering knowledge & innovation
The ETI works with:
Recent Insights Publications
CAREER PATH & CHALLENGES
PREPARING THE UK FOR TRANSITION
Decarbonisation in the context of Increasing demand to 2050 Population: 62 to 77-79 million Vehicles: 24 to 35-43 million cars Housing: 24 to 38 million houses, 80% already exist Aging power production fleet UK climate change act By 2050, reduce UK s emissions by at least 80% compared to 1990 base level Action to date Decarbonising power sector Increasing energy efficiencies (especially households and vehicles)
UK energy flows 2015
Heat / Electricity (GW) Domestic and commercial heat demand 250 The gas grid is our biggest energy storage device 200 Heat Electricity 150 100 50 0 Jan 10 Apr 10 July 10 Oct 10 GB 2010 heat and electricity hourly demand variability - commercial & domestic Data source: UKERC (2011)
Heat Demand (GW) Low carbon heating is a huge challenge 291GW 304GW +132 GW heat demand in 1 hr (0630-0730) -121 GW heat demand in 1 hr (0830-0930) 16 GW 8am 67 GW 6pm 100x the capacity of Dinorwig pumped store in 1 hour Time of Day Saturday 18 th Dec 2010 132GW/hr = 36MW/s Dinorwig = 108MW/s and 1.32GW total
The next decade is critical in preparing for transition The UK can implement an affordable (~1% of GDP) 35-year transition to a low carbon energy system by developing, commercialising and integrating known - but currently underdeveloped solutions We need to focus on a basket of leading contender technologies Efficiency of vehicles, efficiency and heat for buildings, Nuclear, CCS, Bio, Offshore Wind, Gases There is enormous potential and value in CCS and bioenergy The ability (or failure) to deploy these two technologies will have a huge impact on the cost of achieving the climate change targets and the national architecture of low carbon systems and future infrastructure requirements To avoid wasting investment, crucial decisions must be made about the design of the future energy system, driven by choices on infrastructure
The UK can achieve an affordable transition (1-2% of GDP) Additional cost of delivering 2050-80% CO2 energy system NPV bn 2010-2050 600 No CCS 500 400 300 1% of 2050 GDP No building packages No nuclear No Bio No offshore wind 200 100 0 No Targets Perfect low cost route Practical low cost route 1% of 2050 GDP No building efficiency packages No Nuclear No CCS No Bio No Offshore Wind
CCS is high value as it creates options application of the same infrastructure for power, industry, enabling bioenergy usage and H2 production ETI energy system modelling points to energy system-wide value of CCS extending beyond low carbon electricity generation Low carbon electricity from fossil fuels (DECC Demos) CCS with biomass (Drax programme) Gasification applications (ETI demos) CCS on industrial emissions (To follow) Negative emissions Flexible low carbon fuels (hydrogen, syngas) Enables continued use of fossil fuels where very expensive to replace Low carbon energy diversity, portfolio of flexible low carbon energy vectors, option value & robustness in meeting carbon targets
UK energy flows 2015
Infrastructure challenges predominantly mid and downstream Mean Reference Case 2050
Removing a key option leads to very different infrastructure requirements No CCS Sensitivity 2050
ETI CCS Programme Demonstration Development Knowledge Building CCS System Modelling Toolkit: 3M Nextgen1: up to 23M Pre Combustion Coal Storage Appraisal: 4M Capture Economics: 0.2M MMV Landscape: 0.2M Mineralisation: 1.4M Biomass with CCS: 0.8M Hydrogen & Storage: 0.3M CCS Development Scenarios 0.1M High Hydrogen: 2M Turbine & Engine Safety Strategic UK Storage Appraisal: 2M Thermal Power with CCS: 2M + Nextgen 2: up to 20M Post Combustion Gas Aquifer Appraisal: 2M Funding of NG Project MMV: 5M Marine monitoring 20
Supporting the development of Phase 2 Capture and Storage 18 th June 2015
Registered Office Energy Technologies Institute Holywell Building Holywell Park Loughborough LE11 3UZ For all general enquiries telephone the ETI on 01509 202020. For more information about the ETI visit www.eti.co.uk For the latest ETI news and announcements email info@eti.co.uk The ETI can also be followed on Twitter @the_eti
Thermal Power with CCS Project Opportunity to develop low cost, low risk GW scale power project, supported by CFD Rapid reduction in cost and risk by appropriate selection of technology, location and use of existing assets Attractive to developers and investors with a low to moderate risk appetite Be robust to the developing circumstances in CCS, potentially allowing companies to share risk through a co-venturing model ETI aims to support early stage development project Create investment case for identified project Learnings/insights to catalyse further projects Request for Proposals launched on 18 th June 2015 http://www.eti.co.uk/eti-seeks-co-venturers-to-developan-investable-concept-for-major-new-power-generationcapacity-with-carbon-capture-and-storage-2/ 17