Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Dr. Rolf Leonhard Robert Bosch GmbH 13 th International AVL Symposium on Propulsion Diagnostics Baden-Baden, June 26-27, 2018
Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Greenhouse gas targets Sustainable energy and powertrains Electrofuels, efuels De-Fossilisation scenarios Conclusions 2
Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GtCO2eq/yr) World vs 1990 Industrialized Countries Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions GHG reductions - not to exceed 2 o C global warming 60 50 40 Source: M. Meinshausen, based on UNEP Human Development Report 2009 Status world EU Commission/EDGAR Target World Best guess: +2.7 o Climate Action Tracker 11.2015 30 Target Emerging Countries -50% 20 10-30% Target Industrialized Countries -55% -75% 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050-85% -80.. -95% An agreed target since UN Climate Change Summit, Copenhagen 2009 3
Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Greenhouse gas targets Sustainable energy and powertrains Electrofuels, efuels De-Fossilisation scenarios Conclusions 6
Energy and Powetrains for sustainable Mobility Technology options E-Drive Battery Regarded as the future mobility option Zero emission, best efficiency Cost penalty due to battery Driving range and top speed handicap Insufficient coverage and business models for charging infrastructure Will plugged mobility the one and only solution in future? 7
CO 2 Mobility Scenarios Transport emissions ww 10 Source: Shell Mountains Scenarios 2013; *ExxonMobile 2014, BP 2014 8 Gt 9 CO 2 /yr, tank to wheel 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 +200% km -30% CO2/tkm +135% tkm -40% CO2/tkm +70% km -40% CO2/km Electric driving share PC (% km): 5 20 40 60 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Navigation Aviation Rail CV MC&PC ExxonMobile 2014 BP 2014 Road CO2 target CO 2 target acc. to world GHG target traffic increase* PT efficiency Efficiency measures and plugged cars not sufficient 100% plugged road traffic?
CO 2 Mobility Scenarios Transport emissions in/from Germany, wtw 250 mio t CO 2 200 150 100 50 whell to wheel +100% km -20% CO2/km +60% km -20% CO2/km +13% km -39% CO2/km Source 1960-2030: IFEU, Tremod 5.3, IEA (Navigation) Navigation Aviation Rail CV PC Diesel PC Gasoline Motorcycles Total Road MC&PC CO2 target acc. to GHG target for industr. countries 9 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Efficiency measures and plugged cars not sufficient traffic increase* PT efficiency
Primary energy German Energiewende Status and targets 5000 TWh 4000 Source: Federal Environment Agency, UBA Energy Concept of German Government 2010; Nuclear Exit in 2022 decided 2011 Extension plan for RE electricity (EEG17) -20% vs 2008 100% 80% Nuclear Gas Oil 3000 60% Coal 2000-40% GHG vs 1990-55% -50% 40% Total Fossil 1000-70% 20% -80%..-95% RE electricity demand EEG17 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0% RE share +600% Renewable electricity demand vs today even with high efficiency achievements 10
German Energiewende Actual extension plan for RE electricity (EEG17) Status and targets Source: Federal Environment Agency, UBA, 10.2017 Capacity installed (GW) Electricity produced (TWh) x5 x7 +600% Renewable electricity from photovoltaic and wind 11
Battery Electric Vehicles Charging in urban areas Concept and design by M. Bargende 12
Battery Electric Vehicles Assessment of critical raw materials for BEV s Phosphor Titanium Nickel Aluminium Gold Molybdenum Lithium Manganes Ferric Tellurium Zircon Copper Indium Silver Tantalum PGM Rare earth Cobalt Magnesium Chromium PGM: Platinum-group metals Source: Federal Environment Agency, UBA-FB 002316, 2016 13
Energy and Powetrains for sustainable Mobility Technology options E-Drive Battery Regarded as the future mobility option Zero emission, best efficiency Cost penalty due to battery Driving range and top speed handicap Insufficient coverage and business models for charging infrastructure More reasons to keep mobility unplugged.. Relieve to electric grid, permanent RE power demand and electricity prices by decoupling of energy generation and transport.. Long distance and heavy good transport.. Multiple mode usage of cars But how to get sustainable and staying unplugged? 14
Energy and Powetrains for sustainable Mobility Technology options E-Drive Battery Regarded as the future mobility option Zero emission, best efficiency Cost penalty due to battery Driving range and top speed handicap Insufficient coverage and business models for charging infrastructure IC-Engine Biomass Vegetable oils, Ethanol Vegetable garbage, Alga Increasing share up to 10% in 2020 acc. to EU regulation Main CO 2 -effect until 2040 beyond efficiency measures Limited volume potential Fuel vs food dilemma 15
Energy and Poertrains for sustainable Mobility Technology options E-Drive Battery Fuel Cell IC-Engine Biomass Vegetable oils, Ethanol Vegetable garbage, Alga O 2 + 2H 2 2H 2 O Zero emission, high efficiency Decoupling of energy generation and consumption is driver for H 2 -society in Japan High vehicle oncosts Lack of H 2 -infrastructure 16
Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Technology options E-Drive Battery Fuel Cell IC-Engine Biomass Vegetable oils, Ethanol Vegetable garbage, Alga O 2 + 2H 2 2H 2 O Electrofuels, efuels PtF, PtG, PtL H 2 CO 2 + 3H 2 H 2 O + CH 3 OH CO 2 + 4H 2 2H 2 O + CH 4 CO 2 + 3nH 2 2nH 2 O + (CH 2 ) n CO 2 -Recycling (Technical Photosynthesis) 17 PtF, PtG, PtL: Power to Fuel, Gas, Liquid
Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Greenhouse gas targets Sustainable energy and powertrains Electrofuels, efuels De-Fossilisation scenarios Conclusions 18
PtL Conversion efficiency Electrofuels Power to Liquid PtL efficiency 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% System efficiency of water electrolysis 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Overall chemical reaction: 3 H 2 O + CO 2 = - CH 2 - + 3/2 O 2 + 2 H 2 O Mass balance: 3/7 kg H 2 + 22/7 kg CO 2 = 1 kg fuel + 24/7 kg O 2 + 18/7 kg H 2 O Source: A. Jess et alii, CIT 2011, 83, No. 11 11.8 kwh/kg fuel / η PtL = 3/7 * 33.33 kwh/kg H 2 * 1/ η electrolysis + 22/7* 0.14 kwh/kg CO 2 * 1/ η CO2-capture + 22/7 * 0.5 kwh/kg fuel 19
PtL cost ( / 10kWh) Electrofuels Power to Liquid, PtL cost w/o taxes 6 5 4 3 Invest (η PtL=50%): 3.4 mio /Mwfuel Start-up & closing cost: 20% of invest Utilization: 5,000 h/a, 25 years Capital costs: 7,5% Maintenance, insurance: 4% p.a. of invest w/o taxes Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems Europe GmbH: 0,99 /l, η PtL =65%, CO 2 ex biogas Engine Congress, Baden-Baden 02.2017 2 20 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Electricity cost ( ct/kwh el.) Based on data from A. Jess et alii, CIT 2011, 83, No. 11; T. Smolinka et alii, Fraunhofer ISE, FCBAT 2011; A. Voß IER Uni Stuttgart, 2008, W. Maus, 2010 and 2012 Sunfire GmbH, Dresden: 0,95 /l, η PtL =68%, CO 2 captured from biogas Fraunhofer Tagung Energie, Dresden 05.2013
6.000 4.000 4.000 h/a PtL cost ( / 10kWh) Electrofuels Power to Liquid, PtL cost w/o taxes 21 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Invest (η PtL=50%): 3.4 mio /Mwfuel Start-up & closing cost: 20% of invest Utilization: 5,000 h/a, 25 years Capital costs: 7,5% Maintenance, insurance: 4% p.a. of invest w/o taxes *FVV Forschungvereinigung Verbrennungskraftmaschinen e.v. Research association for combustion engines Fraunhofer, IWES, August 2017: Potentiale von PtL- und H 2 -Importen, direct air capture Prognos AG 30.09.2017 180 4.000 Sunfire 230 FVV* 1086-2016: RENEWABLES IN TRANSPORT 2050 Expertise by Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Vision Import 2050 2050 Germany 2015 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Power cost ( ct/kwh el.) Based on data from A. Jess et alii, CIT 2011, 83, No. 11; T. Smolinka et alii, Fraunhofer ISE, FCBAT 2011; A. Voß IER Uni Stuttgart, 2008, W. Maus, 2010 and 2012 310 t.o. CO 2 air capture cost: 460 /t
Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Greenhouse gas targets Sustainable energy and powertrains Electrofuels, efuels De-Fossilisation scenarios Conclusions 22
Energy shares De-Fossilization Scenarios Energy shares and CO 2 -intensity of energy 100% 600 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Fossil fuels/total energy Fossil fuels/total fuels 79% 65% 36% CO2-Intensity, wtw (g/kwh) 500 400 300 200 100 Fossil fuels Electricity mix 10% Biofuels 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 23 Robert Bosch GmbH 2017. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.
Vehicle energy demand per km CO2-emission, wtw CO2-emission, wtw De-Fossilzation Scenarios Effect of vehicle and energy measures on total CO 2, wtw Efficieny effects Energy-mix effects Car fleet CO 2 100% 90% 80% Powertrain ICE Powertrain BEV 100% 90% 80% Electricity 100% 90% 80% BEV only 70% 60% 50% 70% 60% 50% Energy-mix 70% 60% 50% Measures w/o BEV 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Shell Pkw-Szenarien Alternativszenario, 2014 ICE: Internal Combustion Engine BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle incl. electric driven Plug-in Hybrids 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Measures combined @constant mileage 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 CO 2 targets to be achieved by combined vehicle and energy measures 24 Rolf Leonhard 24.10.2017 Robert Bosch GmbH 2017. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.
De-Fossilization Scenarios Energy split for 85% CO 2 reduction wtw 2010 2060 Energy consumption 420 TWh -60 % @constant mileage 170 TWh FVV 11.2015: 2050: 70-220 TWh Shell 2014: 2040: 210 TWh Primary energy fp = primary energy factor 500 TWh -50 % 1,16 1,33 fp=2,0 250 TWh Fossil fuel demand: -88% Electric power demand: 175 TWh Fossil fuel Biofuel e-fuel El. Power 25
De-Fossilization Scenarios Powertrain forecasts @Stuttgart Symposium 14.03.2017 26 Mio new released cars 89 88,5 ZEV: Zero Emission Vehicle, ICE Internal Combustion Engine 0,5 107 114 Total 100 98 103 ICEmax 104 93 90 ICEmin Forecast @ 76 Stuttgarter Symposium 2018: ZEV 2030: 15.. 35% 38 ZEVmax 17 7 2 4 2015 2020 2025 2030 High forecast uncertainty requires dual strategies ZEVmin 10
Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Technology options and share 2050 in energy consumption E-Drive Battery Fuel Cell 30% 10% IC-Engine Biomass Vegetable oils, Ethanol 10% Vegetable garbage, Alga O 2 + 2H 2 2H 2 O Electrofuels, efuels PtF, PtG, PtL H 50% 2 CO 2 + 3H 2 H 2 O + CH 3 OH CO 2 + 4H 2 2H 2 O + CH 4 CO 2 + 3nH 2 2nH 2 O + (CH 2 ) n CO 2 -Recycling (Technical Photosynthesis) 27 PtF, PtG, PtL: Power to Fuel, Gas, Liquid
Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Dr. Rolf Leonhard Robert Bosch GmbH A balanced mix of different drivetrains powered by renewable energy will be the optimum from an economical, ecological and social point of view. 13 th International AVL Symposium on Propulsion Diagnostics Baden-Baden, June 26-27, 2018