Weekly Summary: The US EIA came in with a withdrawal of 34 Bcf in their report on Thursday. It was below expectations of 38-42 Bcf and extremely below the 5 year average of 120 Bcf. Last year this week there was a withdrawal of 61 Bcf. The market reacted Thursday by dropping a bit and settled 3 cents lower at $1.75/MMBtu to close Thursday. This is the lowest settlement since March 23, 1999. The weather forecasts continue to show above-average temperatures for the entire eastern half of the country. The trend of lower than usual withdrawals will continue assuredly. The market will continue to trade at these lower prices in the immediate future. On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Energy released the biggest energy efficiency rule in history. The Department regularly releases standards of energy efficiency for equipment such as dishwashers, refrigerators, and other things. This particular standard is in regards to commercial air conditioners and furnaces. Making these devices more efficient will translate into $167 billion in saved costs for businesses over the life of the standard, in addition to 885 million tons fewer CO2 emissions. The new 13% energy efficiency standard takes effect in 2018, and five years later the standard will tighten by another 15%. What makes this rule the largest efficiency rule is that the total amount of energy it saves over its lifetime will be 15 quadrillion BTUs. The Obama Administration s efficiency standards will prevent a bit more than two billion tons of greenhouse gases, and they believe they re on track to get close to three. In temperature news, the National Weather Service forecasts El Niño to continue affecting temperatures in January. They say that above-normal temperatures are likely for January across most of the northern U.S. and west coast. This year s El Niño is among the strongest on record, the NWS reports. They also foresee the weather phenomenon to impact the U.S. all the way into spring 2016. For January to March, above normal temperatures are expected across most of the Northern and Western US, while below-normal temperatures are likely from the South Atlantic coast to New Mexico. These high winter temperatures will cause storage levels to end the withdrawal season extremely high, which will continue the trend of the over supplied market. NYMEX - Annual s Henry Hub 2016 Annual Henry Hub 2017 Annual Henry Hub 2018 Annual $4.50 $4.10 $3.70 $3.30 $2.90 $2.50 $2.10 Natural Gas: NYMEX Natural Gas: Storage Inventories NYMEX Natural Gas Summary Close () % Change from Last Week EIA Natural Gas Storage Summary This week Same week - Last year 5 Year Average for this week Prompt Month: Jan 2016 $1.76-12.903% Total (Bcf) 3,846 3,305 3,524 Front Month: Feb 2016 $1.87-9.735% Calendar 2016 Calendar 2017 $2.21-4.970% Current levels vs Previous years (Bcf) % Difference - Current vs Previous years $2.70-1.530% Injection/ Withdrawal -34 541 322 16.37% 9.14% 1
New England Annual Forward s - Basis Algon Gates 2016 Annual Algon Gates 2017 Annual $3.90 $2.90 $1.90 $0.90 Algon Gates, Natural Gas Basis Summary 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 $1.306 $1.362-4.15% $1.688-22.63% $2.410-45.82% $2.499-47.74% 2017 $0.994 $1.071-7.25% $1.312-24.25% $1.662-40.19% $1.989-50.04%.H.Internal_Hub $54 $44 $34 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 ISO-NE.H.Internal_Hub Power Movement 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change $36.655 $38.411-4.572% $43.889-16.48% $51.173-28.37% $57.930-36.73% 2
New York Annual Forward s - Basis Transco Z 6 NY 2016 Annual Transco Z 6 NY 2017 Annual $1.40 $1.10 $0.80 $0.50 $0.20 Transco Zone 6 Non-NY, Natural Gas Basis Summary 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 $0.250 $0.308-18.88% $0.638-60.82% $0.949-73.65% $0.538-53.51% 2017 $0.811 $0.741 9.40% $0.966-16.07% $0.881-8.00% $0.535 51.66% $59 $54 $49 $44 $39 N.Y.C - J $34 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 NYISO - N.Y.C. - J Power Movement 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change $35.681 $36.358-1.86% $40.835-12.62% $49.902-28.50% $57.046-37.45% 3
Mid-Atlantic Annual Forward s - Basis Tetco M3 2016 Annual Tetco M3 2017 Annual $0.20 $0.00 -$0.20 -$0.40 -$0.60 Tetco M3, Natural Gas Basis Summary 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 -$0.321 -$0.386 16.78% -$0.228-40.52% -$0.104-207.57% -$0.353 9.17% 2017 -$0.112 -$0.212 47.15% -$0.092-21.82% -$0.031-257.32% -$0.198 43.39% $50 BGE $47 $44 $41 $38 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 PJM BGE, Power Movement 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change $42.051 $41.599 1.085% $42.147-0.230% $45.468-7.516% $47.670-11.788% 4
Southern California Annual Forward s - Basis SoCal Border 2016 Annual SoCal Border 2017 Annual $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 $0.00 -$0.10 Sep-14 SoCal Border, Natural Gas Basis Summary 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 $0.136 $0.026 422.69% $0.032 330.06% -$0.011 1335.45% $0.182-25.17% 2017 $0.085 $0.019 355.91% $0.019 341.67% $0.035 140.91% $0.233-63.61% $41 SP15 $36 $31 $26 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 CAISO SP15, Power Movement 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change $27.971 $28.091-0.425% $30.312-7.723% $35.091-20.290% $40.724-31.315% 5
Texas Annual Forward s - Basis Houston Ship Channel 2016 Annual Houston Ship Channel 2017 Annual $0.18 $0.13 $0.08 $0.03 -$0.02 -$0.07 Houston Ship Channel 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 -$0.017 -$0.031 44.05% -$0.047 63.06% -$0.004-295.45% $0.064-127.40% 2017 $0.008 -$0.010 177.67% -$0.010 184.21% $0.050-83.97% $0.088-90.88% $42 Houston Zone $37 $32 $27 $22 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 ERCOT Houston Zone 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change $25.014 $25.688-2.624% $28.568-12.440% $31.685-21.053% $38.777-35.492% 6
Pacific Northwest Annual Forward s - Basis NW Sumas 2016 Annual NW Sumas 2017 Annual $0.10 -$0.05 -$0.20 -$0.35 -$0.50 -$0.65 NW Sumas, Natural Gas Basis Summary 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 -$0.270 -$0.351 23.20% -$0.403 32.97% -$0.390 30.79% -$0.333 19.00% 2017 -$0.360 -$0.387 7.06% -$0.411 12.59% -$0.347-3.57% -$0.266-35.39% Florida Basis - Annual Forward s Movement FGT Z 3 2016 Annual FGT Z 3 2017 Annual $0.15 $0.10 $0.05 $0.00 Sep-14 FGT Z 3, Natural Gas Basis Summary 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 $0.039 $0.041-5.64% $0.041-6.78% $0.063-38.89% $0.089-56.64% 2017 $0.054 $0.058-7.75% $0.058-7.90% $0.074-27.76% $0.088-39.23% 7