Early Warning & DRM System of Pakistan Learning from Good Practices South Asia Hyderomet Forum By M. Idrees Mahsud Member (DRR), NDMA 1 1
Sequence Hazard Profile and Disaster Management System in Pakistan Early Warning Systems and Linkages with DM System Good Practices & Focus on DRR Challenges & Priority Areas 2
Hazard Profile of Pakistan 3
Pak Flood Hazard Map Floods Vulnerability 2010-2015 Flood 2012 2015 2014 2011 2013 2010 Cumulative Flood Extent 4
Pak Cyclone Hazard Map 2007 Cyclone Yemyin 2010 Cyclone Phet Cyclone Vulnerability 5
Pak Drought Hazard Map Drought Vulnerability 6
Pak Avalanche Hazard Map Avalanche Vulnerability 7
Pak GLOF Hazard Map GLOF Vulnerability 8
CRI (97-2016) Global Climate Risk Index Long Term Climate Rate Index Country CRI Score Deaths Deaths per 100,000 pers Total Losses (USD Millions) Losses per GDP Unit % Number of Events during Period 1 Honduras 12.17 301.65 4.28 961.11 1.968 62 2 Haiti 13.50 280.40 2.96 418.77 2.730 72 3 Myanmar 14.00 7,097.75 14.55 1,277.86 0.694 43 4 Nicaragua 19.33 162.45 2.96 234.60 1.127 44 5 Philippines 20.17 859.55 0.98 2,893.41 0.611 289 6 Bangladesh 26.50 641.55 0.44 2,311.07 0.678 187 7 Pakistan 30.50 523.10 0.33 3,816.52 0.605 141 8 Vietnam 31.83 312.60 0.37 2,029.80 0.549 216 9 Thailand 33.83 139.60 0.21 7,696.59 0.967 137 10 Dominican Republic 34.00 210.90 2.32 243.53 0.262 49 Source: German Watch 9
Effects of Climate Change on Pakistan Increased Temperatures 2016-2035 (IPCC AR5) Global versus Pakistan Decadal Mean Temperature Trends Period Global Pakistan 1901-2000 0.06 C 0.06 C 1956-2005 0.12 C 0.16 C 1971-2005 0.15 C 0.26 C 1981-2005 0.17 C 0.39 C 1991-2005 0.33 C 0.74 C 2010-2039 0.7 C* 1 C The mean temperature rise after 1950s over Pakistan is twice as fast as the Global Mean Change 10
Effects of Climate Change on Pakistan 12 Historical Disasters in Pakistan (Occurrence in Decade) 10 8 6 Flood Most recurrent phenomena in Pakistan 4 2 0 1970-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-17 Avalanche Cyclone Drought Earthquake Floods Landslides Hy Rains Tornado Windstorm 11
1950 1955 1956 1957 1959 1973 1975 1976 1977 1978 1981 1983 1984 1988 1992 1994 1995 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 488 378 319 301 234 684 338 299 134 75 Million US $ 858 843 376 500 170 2,227 3,485 3,010 3,730 2,640 2,000 5,134 10,000 Effects of Climate Change on Pakistan Historic Flood Damages Pakistan US$19,183 Million in 60 Years 50% of total direct losses during last 6 years 10000 8000 6000 US$ 19,040 Million in 6 Years Only 4000 2000 0 Flood Years Total Direct Losses US$ 38,223 Million 12
DRM System & Early Warning Mechanism 13
Disaster Management Structure as per NDM Act Federal Level NDM Act Provincial Level NDMC PDMC Policy Formulation NDMA Prime Minister Sectt PDMAs Federal Departments NDRF NIDM DDMAs Provincial Departments Implementation Stakeholders Community District Departments Disaster Management is a Devolved Subject
Early Warning Dissemination PMD/FFD F/G/S/PDMAs NDMA Alerts(Warnings, Advisory ) Provincial Line Departments DDMA Federal Agencies,(Arm y, Rescue 1122) District line Departments, tehsil & UC level local Administration, Communities
Sharing of Information Weather Forecasting Flood Forecasting Seismology PMD / FFD Federal / Provincial Depts PDMAs / DDMAs Losses / Damages Data Rescue / Relief Data R&R Efforts River Flow Data Canal Flow Data Dams Data FFC NDMA / NEOC Armed Forces Losses / Damages Data Rescue & Relief Activities Satellite Imagery Imagery Analysis SUPARCO UN / NGOs PCIW Relief Activities Data Transboundary Water Flow Data 16
Flood Forecasting Division Lahore (FFD) Early Warning Dissemination Weather Forecasting Network of PMD Regional Meteorological Cen Karachi Regional Meteorological Cen Lahore National Weather Forecasting Cen (NWFC) Islamabad Regional Meteorological Cen Quetta Regional Meteorological Cen Peshawar Flood Forecasting & Warning Centre For Lai Nullah Basin Islamabad 18
Early Warning Dissemination Drought/Environment Monitoring & Early Warning Centre National Centre for Drought/ Environment Monitoring Regional Drought Centre 1. Serve as a hub for the collection, consolidation and analysis of drought related data 2. Prepare and issue weekly drought monitors & moisture stresses in different regions of country based on various indices 3. Advising government agencies on drought related matters. 19
Good Practice of EW System Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (FFWS) Providing Accurate Forecasting & Early Warning with Flood Forecast lead time of one to two hours. Public Warning System for the twin cities 20
Futuristic Early Warning System Early Warning System is integral part of National DRM planning. Replication of Urban Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System Satellite based Integrated Flood Alert System for flash floods Early Warning based insurance mechanisms. Pakistan Resilience Partnership (PRP) for involving stakeholders including private / corporate sector in DRM Tap on the opportunities for Trans boundary Early Warning Mechanisms
Focus on DRR 22
Economic Impact of Major Disasters Since 2005 Annual Economic Impact Average Impact of Disaster $1.2-1.8 Billion Major Flood Event Impact (Forecasted) $15.5 Billion % of GPD 0.5-0.8% 7% % of Federal Budget 3 4% 40% Source: Fiscal Risk Assessment Options for Consideration, A Study by World Bank and GFDRR, 2015
National DRR Policy 2013 Risk Knowledge Risk Atlas Risk Assessments Database Research Prevention & Mitigation DRR High Risk Areas Resilient Development Key Infrastructure Risk Awareness Preparedness Multi Hazard EWS National Capacity Financing Mechanisms 24
National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP) NDMP 2013 to 2022 Interventions : 10 Strategies : 41 Projects : 118 Revised Cost : USD 2040.90 M Timeframe : 10 Years (2013-22) 25
NDMP Financial Outlay Intervention Cost US$ M* Establish Institutional & Legal System for Disaster Management 2.30 NDMA, PDMAs Responsible Organization Prepare Disaster Management Plans - All levels 3.00 NDMA, PDMAs National Hazard & Vulnerability Assessment 24.00 NDMA, PDMAs, GSP, ERRA, GCISC, FFC, PMD, WAPDA Establish Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Evacuation Systems 188.50 PMD, FFC, SUPARCO, Provincial Irrigation Department Promotion of Training, Education & Awareness in relation to NIDM/NDMA, Civil Defense, Provincial Disaster Management 64.30 Education Departments Disaster Management Awareness 14.00 NDMA, PDMAs, DDMAs Infrastructure Development for DRR 1707.60 FFC, PID, Ministry of Ports & Shipping Mainstreaming DRR into Development 1.20 Ministry of Planning, Development and Reforms, NDMA, PDMAs Establish National Emergency Response System 31.00 NDMA, PDMAs, DDMAs, M/O IT, M/O Information Capacity Development - Post Disaster Recovery 5.00 NDMA, PDMAs Total 2040.90 26
CHALLENGES & PRIORITY AREAS 27
Challenges for Disaster Management Limited Capability of Meteorological Department Prediction of medium to long range forecasting 7 to15 days Lacks in Quantitative Forecast of Extreme Events (2010 & 2014 floods) Accuracy in Seasonal Weather Prediction 50 60% No Upper Atmosphere Weather Data for Storm Tracking No Urban Flood Forecasting System except for Islamabad Rawalpindi 28
Challenges for the Disaster Management Overlapping legal and institutional structures Vulnerability against floods till implementation of NFPP IV Trans boundary Sharing of information Disaster Information Management System DM System at District Level needs further strengthening Micro level vulnerability Risk assessment needs to be completed at the earliest for streamlining land use planning, future developments, need assessment, allocation of resources etc. 29
Challenges for the Disaster Management Mainstreaming DRR into Development Planning and implementation Building codes implementation Retrofitting of existing infrastructure for DRR compliance 30
NDMA PRIORITIES 31
NDMA s Priorities Legal and institutional Reforms Multi- Hazard Vulnerability Risk Assessments at Micro Level (UC level) Enhance resilience capacity of communities through CBDRM, advocacy and awareness. Enhance early warning capacities for multi hazards Develop Disaster Management information System Capacity Building of the Government Officials Enhance Response and logistic capacities Focus on Gender Equality and Vulnerable Groups 32
NDMA s Priorities Smart National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) Pakistan School Safety Framework Building Codes implementation DRM Services and Weather forecasting project with the support of World Bank A major investment initiative National Disaster Risk Management Fund a permanent investment window for DRR and Preparedness Risk Financing Mechanisms including Macro & Micro level risk insurance mechanisms 33
Thank you 34