Vietnam- NCAP Study CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN HUONG RIVER BASIN AND ADAPTATION IN THUA THIEN HUE PROVINCE
Project Expert Team IMHEN Prof. Dr. Tran Thuc, Project Director Mr. Le Nguyen Tuong, Project Coordinator Prof Dr. Nguyen Trong Hieu, NE Dr. Tran Mai Kien, NE Dr. Hoang Minh Tuyen, NE Ms Huynh Thi Lan Huong, NE Mr. Dang Quang Thinh, NE Dr. Hoang Duc Cuong, NE Mr. Tran Quynh, NE Mr. Vuong Xuan Hoa, NE International consultants: Mr. Adriaan Tas Dr. Peter van der Werff Thua Thien Hue local experts Mr. Nguyen Huu Quyet, Hue group coordinator Mr. Nguyen Viet Hung, NE TTH DONRE Mr. Nguyen Viet, NE, Hue MC Province Mr. Pham Van Chien, NE, DN Ob. Mr. Le Van Thu, SEZ Ms Lam Thi Thu Suu, HU Nguyen Van Kham, DI Bùi i Thị Hai Yen, DARD Tran Viet Luc, DT Luong Quang ðoc HU Phan Thanh Hung, NE, TFMC
Study area - Huong basin Mountainous area in the west and in the south is 70% area of the province. Plain area is small along the coastal. It is around 9.78% natural area of the province The Huong river basin area is 2.830 km2 Mean annual precipitation: 2833.5 mm
Activities Statistical processing Research and Modeling On site survey, Expert method, and stakeholder consultation
Key outputs Climate change and disasters in T.T.Hue Predicted Climate change and Climate change impacts in Thua Thien Hue Climate change strategy of province Capacity building for province and lessons
Climate change and disasters in Thua Thien Hue
Scine 1952 to 2005 there were 34 typhoons which impacted directly to Thua Thien Hue Typhoons impact to Thua Thien Hue
Period Annual mean Month max Month observed Daily max Date observed 1911-1920 1920 2817 1568 11.1917 283 13.10.1916 1921-1930 1930 3008 1241 11.1930 360 13.11.1930 1931-1940 1940 2631 1166 10.1932 433 25.10.1939 1941-1950 1950 3230 1547 10.1949 440 23.10.1949 1951-1960 1960 2751 1078 10.1960 277 27.11.1960 1961-1970 1970 2824 1792 10.1969 550 05.10.1969 1971-1980 1980 2666 1564 10.1973 470 23.10.1973 Change of temperature at A Luoi station 23.0 22.5 O C 1981-1990 1990 1991-2000 2001-2006 2006 Annual Temperature 2575 3093 2827 1527 2452 1526 3500 10.1983 11.1999 11.2004 582 978 682 Change of rainfall at Hue Station 10.10.1981 02.11.1999 26.11.2004 22.0 21.5 21.0 3 4 Yea r 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2 1 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 Mưa năm Mưa tháng lớn nhất Mưa ngày lớn nhất Pic. Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of annual average temperature at A Luoi station. 500 0 1911-1920 1921-1930 1931-1940 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2006
Number 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Floods in Huong river W. Level cm 600 500 400 300 SH 200 100 S.HƯƠNG S.BỒ 0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 0 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 Number of flood higher than warning level 3 in Thua Thien Hue: Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 No. 2 3 1 2 1 1 5 flood 2007
Disasters and climate change and impacts in Thua Thien Hue Infrastru cture Sector Subject Sea level rise Pre. change Typhoon River flow change and flood Landslide River bank, sea dyke erosion Increase in temperature Transportation - +++ ++ ++ +++ - - ++ Water drainage ++ +++ ++ ++ - - - - Water supply - +++ ++ ++ - - ++ ++ Electricity - ++ +++ - ++ - ++ - - ++ +++ - - - - - Telecommunicati ons Agriculture ++ + ++ +++ - ++ ++ - Forestry ++ - ++ ++ + - ++ ++ Irrigation ++ ++ ++ +++ - - ++ +++ Aquaculture +++ ++ ++ +++ - +++ ++ - Biodiversity +++ - - - - ++ +++ - Water Resources +++ +++ + +++ - - ++ ++ Flash flood +++: Strong impact ++ : Medium impact + : Low impact - : Non-impact
Projected climate change and climate change impacts in Thua Thien Hue
Projected climate change in Thua Thien Hue Change of temperature compared with everage period 1961-1990 Scenario Period 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 A1F1 Year 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.9 XII-II 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.0 III-V 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.7 VI-VIII 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.1 IX-XI 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.6 4.0 Change in rainfall compared with mean from 1961-1990 (%) Scenario 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.5 4.0 5.7 7.3 8.7 10.0 11.0 XII-II -1.0-2.0-3.3-5.4-8.5-12.0-15.4-18.5-21.2-23.4 A1F1 III-V 0.4 0.8 1.3 3.1 3.4 4.8 6.1 7.4 8.4 9.3 VI-VIII 0.7 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.6 8.0 10.3 12.3 14.2 15.6 IX-XI 1.1 2.1 3.5 5.7 8.9 12.7 16.3 19.6 22.4 24.7 Sea level rise compared 1961-1990 (B2) scenario (cm) Station 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Hon Dau 8.75 13.35 17.96 22.56 27.17 31.77 36.38 40.98 45.58 50.19 54.79 Vung Tau 5.21 10.71 16.21 21.70 27.20 32.69 38.19 43.68 49.18 54.67 60.17
Huong River Water resources Predicted impact of climate change on Huong river runoff % RIVER FLOW CHANGE IN III-V 0-5 -10-15 2020 2040 2060 2080 15 2100 2120 Năm 10 % Hữu trạch Tả trạch 5 Bồ % RIVER FLOW CHANGE IN IX-XI 0 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 Năm Hữu trạch Tả trạch Bồ
Flood Flood area in Phu Vang district calculation under CC A1F1 1999 2030 2050 2070 2090 2100 Hmax (m) 5.81 5.96 6.08 6,16 6,27 6,44 Fmax (km 2 ) 102.1 105.8 109.4 111.2 113.0 114.4 Fmax (%) 0 4.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 12.0 Predicted impacts of climate change in Thua Thien Hue Flood area in Thua Thien Hue under A1F1 CC Scenario 1999 2030 2050 2070 2090 2100 Hmax (m) 5.81 5.96 6.08 6,16 6,27 6,44 Fmax (km 2 ) 388.4 404.5 419.2 438.5 448.8 453.7 Fmax (%) 0 4.0 8.0 13.0 16.0 17.0
Salinity intrusion Salinity change at Pho Nam and Phu Cam under scenario A1F1 Cross-section Parameter 2002 2030 2050 2070 2090 2100 Phu Cam Salinity (PSU) (%o) (%) 2 0 2.1 5 2.17 8.5 2.33 16.5 2.41 20.5 2.47 23.5 Pho Nam Salinity (PSU) (%o) (%) 2.45 0.00 2.65 8.16 2.84 15.92 3.05 24.49 3.24 32.24 3.39 38.37 Predicted impacts of climate change in Thua Thien Hue Change in distance of 1%o and 4%o salinity intrusion Year 4%o B2 1%o 4%o A1F1 1%o 2002 14.799 28.632 14.799 28.632 2030 15.258 29.217 15.408 29.327 2050 15.814 29.366 15.927 29.626 2070 16.136 29.565 16.338 29.855 2090 16.261 29.739 16.618 30.133 2100 16.286 29.788 16.786 30.335
Climate change impact assessment Impacts on biodiversity Impacts on coastal area Impacts on water resources Impacts on agriculture Impacts on forestry Impacts on tourism Impacts on other sectors: Transport, hydropower..
Impacts on health and livelihoods of the people in the region especially aquaculture workers and families
Climate change policy in Thua Thien Hue
Climate change Policy and development plans of province 1. Plan for improving awareness and using climate change information; n; 2. Plan for requirement on climate change and sea level rise consideration in planning decision process; 3. Infrastructure adaptive to climate change 4. Reservoir, River and lagoon management regulation considering climate change 5. Enhance Disaster early warning forecast system 6. Awareness raising and community participation 7. Environmental strategic assessment considering climate change 8. Setting up and implementing climate change adaptation plan of actions Meeting with Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Thien Chairperson of the Provincial People s Committee
Climate change consideration into ICZM 1. Plan on CC awareness raise as a part of the ICZM capacity building 2. Enhance the coastal zone management regulation framework towards adaptive to climate change. 3. Re-assess the carrying capacity of coastal zone and lagoons and potential adaptive capacity to respond to climate change. 4. Plan for setting up requirement on climate change adaptation into EIA for projects in the coastal zone
1. Plan for adjustment Reasonable projection of area based on vulnerable maps. 2. Consideration CC into EIA for investment projects 3. Plan for considering sea level rise 50 cm in 2050 and 1m in 2100 for sea dyke, embankment, sea port constructions 4. Afforest and protect coastal forest 5. Construct storm shelter for ships, high strong building shelter for civilization. Climate change and Chan May - Lang Co economic zone. 6. Develop and operate the climate change observation, monitoring system in the area. source: Consultation group of CCP
Districts and communes: 1. Awareness raising on the impact of climate change. 2. Implement climate change mitigation policy and sustainable use of natural resources policy. 3. Development and implementation commune plan on disaster protection Districts disaster protection plan should be revised in CC Household: 1. Awareness raising on reasonable and effective use of natural resources and energy. 2. Participation in coastal forestation, protect irrigation and flood protection constructions. 3. Development of suitable handcraft adapting to climate change. Flooded point in historical flood in 1999
Capacity building for province and lessons
Stakeholder consultation and Capacity building for Province: Meetings, Interviews, workshops Interview on NCAP and CC for local TV broadcast PPC leader awareness and support 1. Decision-makers and public awareness improving 2. Nominating focal point for climate change Stakeholder Workshop activities in province (DONRE) 4. Technical expert team in province 5. Closer co-operation among different agencies in province 6. Plan Raising management capacity for ICZM 7. Plan for development PAPA on climate change under the NTP
The Lessons 1. Climate change information are highly scientific and uncertain. The local policy makers need a good interpretation for decision process 2. Climate change is long term process so that more effectiveness when focuses to long-term planning, policy/program. 3. Considering Climate change information by PPC and local agencies in revising development plans, ICZM strategy and strategic environmental assessment of Special Economic Zone is the NCAP project contribution to local planning process adapting to climate change 4. CC is cross sector issue, Strong policy coherence and co- ordination between provincial Dep. is needed.
The Lessons 5. The international technical assistance is very important: - To provide in time guideline and new methodology - Broad wide information from international sources overviewed by technical Advisor which have good influence on the local process. 6. Further international support is needed. The province is seeking donor for most prioritized: - Public awareness rising and implementing revised ICZM strategy in climate change condition. - Developing and implementing the provincial climate change adaptation program of action. 7. People know better how to adapt to CC but they need guidance and good organization. Further capacity building is needed.
Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Environment No. 5/62 Nguyen Chi Thanh str., Ha Noi Tel. 04 8359 540, 8355815 Fax: 04 8355 993 Email: tuong@vkttv.edu.vn Website: http://www.imh.ac.vn; http://www.dgroups.org/ groups/ncap Thua Thien Hue sea-shore morning