NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURE FOR KHARIF CAMPAIGN 2010 PRESENTATION ON RABI REVIEW AND KHARIF PROSPECTS Gurbachan Singh Agriculture Commissioner Ministry of Agriculture Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi Email : ag.comm@nic.in
Rabi Review Kharif Prospects Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward
Kharif 2009 at a Glance : Abnormal Southwest Monsoon 4.17 m ha less coverage in rice More area under sorghum and maize 0.61 m ha more coverage under pulses 0.60 m ha less coverage in Oilseeds Kharif rice production less by 12.04 m t 0.48 m t less pulses More area coverage in cotton 10.3 m ha compared to 9.40 m ha last year Oilseeds production 16.19 m t against 17.81 m t in 2008-09 Overall Kharif foodgrain production less by 18.03 m t compared to 2008-09
Rabi Scenario 2009-10 Strategy worked out to compensate kharif loss in Rabi Late rains (end of kharif season): Rabi prospects brightened with early sowing of oilseeds, pulses and rainfed wheat 102.3% area coverage compared to normal area under Rabi 117.3% area under pulses as compared to normal Less coverage under oilseeds mainly due to less coverage of mustard in Rajasthan
Overall about 2.2 lakh ha more coverage compared to last year Good timely rains in M.P., U.P. and some other States : M.P. and U.P. may harvest record wheat production. No major pest menace, bright sunshine and continued prolonged moderate winter temperatures will contribute for enhanced productivity. No significant frost damage on winter crops in northwest India Record wheat production is expected during 2009-10
Crop Rabi Area Coverage as on 12.03.2010 Normal Area This year Last Year + over last year Wheat 270.98 278.16 275.89 +2.27 Rice 39.80 40.29 44.22-3.93 Jowar 47.52 45.69 49.42-3.73 Maize 8.70 11.61 11.74-0.13 Barley 6.85 7.60 7.17 +0.43 Total Coarse Cereals 62.53 65.27 68.72-3.45 Pulses 119.47 144.35 137.07 +7.28 Total foodgrains coverage (in Lakh ha) 492.72 528.07 525.90 +2.17
Second Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains Source : DAC Crop Season 2008-09 2009-10 2 nd Adv. Estimates Final Estimates Target 2 nd Adv. Estimates Rice Kharif 85.50 84.90 86.00 72.90 Rabi 13.40 14.30 14.50 14.70 Total 98.90 99.20 100.50 87.60 Wheat 77.80 80.70 79.00 80.30 C.Cereals Kharif 27.70 28.50 32.70 22.80 Rabi 9.30 11.50 10.40 11.50 Total 37.00 40.00 43.10 34.30 Cereals Kharif 113.10 113.50 118.70 95.60 Rabi 100.50 106.40 104.00 106.50 Total 213.60 219.90 222.60 202.10 Total Pulses Kharif 4.80 4.70 6.50 4.20 Total foodgrains Rabi 9.40 9.90 10.00 10.50 Total 14.20 14.60 16.50 14.70 Kharif 118.00 118.10 125.20 99.90 Rabi 109.90 116.30 114.00 117.00 Total 227.90 234.50 239.10 216.90 (Million tons)
Second Advance Estimates of Production Source : DAC of other Crops Crop Season 2008-09 2009-10 Total Nine Oilseeds (lakh t) Cotton* (Total) (lakh Bales each 170 kg) Jute (lakh Bales each 180 kg) Mesta( lakh Bales each 180 kg) 2 nd Adv. Estimates Final Estimates Target 2 nd Adv. Estimates Kharif 163.23 178.10 194.00 161.91 Rabi 96.37 99.11 122.00 101.31 Total 259.60 277.19 316.00 263.22 221.67 222.76 260.00 223.18 102.54 96.33 102.00 97.00 7.84 7.30 10.00 6.57 Jute and Mesta 110.38 103.65 112.00 103.57 2904.49 2850.29 3400 2512.68 Sugarcane (cane) (lakh t )
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Area, Production and Yield of Wheat 2950 2900 2850 2800 2750 2700 2650 2600 2550 2500 2450 2400 Area (lakh ha) Production (lakh tons) Yield (kg/ha) Super Imposing Rainfall Temperature MSP Seeds Fertilizers Others 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 1999-2 000 2000-01 2001-02 Area (lakh h a), P ro d uctio n (lakh ton s) Y ield (kg/ ha)
250 200 150 100 50 0 Area, Production and Yield of Pulses 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Area (lakh ha) Production (lakh tons) Yield (kg/ha) 2002-03 2003-04 2004-0 5 2005-0 6 2006-0 7 2007-0 8 2008-0 9 19 99-2000 2000-01 2001-02 Area (lakh ha), P rodu ction (lakh tons) Y ield (kg/ha) Super Imposing Rainfall Temperature MSP Seeds Fertilizers Others
Planning for Kharif 2010 Likely Monsoon Scenarios Below normal like 2009 Normal Above normal Pre-monsoon good showers Early onset early withdrawal Late onset, early / late withdrawal Timely onset long break late revival extended phase Extended monsoon (End September) Matching seeds, seedlings, fertilizers, machinery, plant protection, mulching materials etc. (contingency plans)
Hints for Productivity Enhancement : Advance Planning In situ / ex situ rain water conservation Availability of seed, fertilizers (P and K needed at sowing), plant protection equipments and pesticides etc. Promotion of yield enhancing practices SRI Quality Seeds / Hybrids Conservation / Precision Agriculture Integrated Nutrient, Water and Pest Management Strategies Water, Fodder and Feed Availability for Animals
All India Position of Requirement And Availability of Certified Seed During Kharif 2010 Crops Requirement Quantity in Qtls Availability Surplus/Deficit Paddy 5353906 5999845 645939 Ragi 27241 30874 3633 Kodo 400 429 29 Maize 755761 903034 147273 Bajra 254608 295094 40486 Jowar 157105 174420 17315 Total Cereals 6549021 7403696 854675 Urd 133984 188109 54125 Cowpea 21458 20529-929 Moong 179612 189873 10261 Horsegram 3728 650-3078 Field Bean 350 350 0 Moth 15300 5759-9541 Arhar 200677 226985 26308 Rajmash 1102 700-402 Total Pulses 556211 632954 76743
All India Position of Requirement and Availability of Certified Seed During Kharif 2010 Quantity in Qtls Requirement Availability Surplus/Deficit Castor 43716 64378 20662 Groundnut 1825967 2006427 180460 Niger 1517 1069-448 Til 20502 27488 6986 Soybean 2962515 3580675 618160 Sunflower 45001 52295 7294 Total Oilseeds 4899218 5732332 833114 Cotton 192686 253320 60634 Total Fibre 231078 288361 57283 Bajra, Napier Hybrid 25 25 0 Guar 76003 84830 8827 Sudan Grass 200 200 0 Total Fodder 76228 85055 8827 Grand Total 12311756 14142399 1830643
Issues and Strategies Related to Soil Health Management Issues Declining levels of soil organic matter Widening N: P : K Ratio Micro-nutrient deficiencies Declining response in terms of grains / kg fertilizer Heavy metal pollution Low nutrient use efficiency Strategies Site Specific Nutrient Management : Soil testing labs and soil health cards Fertilizer use as per ICAR /SAU s Maps Integrated Nutrient Management Conservation Agriculture Practices NBS: Balanced Nutrition
Current status of nutrient use efficiency Nutrient Efficiency percentage N 30-50 P 10-20 K <80 S 8-12 Zn 2-5 Fe 1-2 Cu 1-2 Mn 1-2
Measures to increase nutrient use efficiency Measure Nutrient Increase in nutrient use efficiency(%) Split vs. single dose application N 15-20 Furrow placement vs broadcast application The incorporation of urea super granules (USG)vs split application PK 20-30 N 20 The foliar vs basal application Micro-nutrients 15-20 Neem coated vs prilled urea N 5-10 Preferential application of phosphorus to wheat in rice-wheat sequence P 50
Area under important pulse crops and major pulse producing States Major Crops Major States Crop Area (%) State Production (%) Chickpea 39 Maharashtra 20 Pigeon pea 21 M.P. 17 Mung bean 11 Rajasthan 11 Urad bean 10 U.P. 11 Lentil 7 A.P 11 Peas 5 70% of Total Production Current Production : 14.7 m t By 2020 : 22-24 m t Productivity : : 659 kg / ha Import 3-4 m t / year Prices quite high Other countries 1700-2000 kg/ha
Pulses production : Constraints & Strategies Constraints Poor genetic potential Inadequate quality seed availability Marginal soils /85% under rainfed Inadequate nutrition Pests : YVM, Seed treatment MSP and Trade Strategies Genetic potential Quality seeds Area expansion : Rice fallows (4 m ha) and summer moong Cropping intensity : Intercropping Diversion of upland rice area (productivity < 1.5 t/ha) Pigeon pea on rice bunds INM / IPM modules Site specific sowing and harvesting machines Blue bulls MSP and procurement
States with productivity less than national average Crop States with productivity less than national average Wheat West Bengal, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Bihar, M.P. Maharashtra Rice U.P., Jharkhand, Assam, Bihar, Orissa, Maharashtra, Chattisgarh Pulses Maharashtra, Chattisgarh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Karnataka Oilseeds West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, A.P., Karnataka Source : Paper circulated during Chief Ministers Conference on 6.2.2010
CAGR Yield Analysis of Major Crops Rice State Yield (Kg / Hectare) CAGR of yield 2003-04 2007-08 2008-09* (2003-4 to 2007-08) Punjab 2.13 3694 4019 4022 A.P. 2.67 3009 3344 3247 Haryana 5.16 2749 3361 2726 W.B 0.69 2504 2573 2646 T.N 5.11 2308 2817 2510 Karnataka 2.54 2375 2625 2434 U.P. -1.45 2187 2063 2171 Jharkhand 4.45 1695 2018 1947 Assam -1.77 1534 1428 1720 Bihar -5.07 1523 1237 1610 Orissa 3.15 1496 1694 1520 Maharashtra 0.67 1853 1903 1506 Chattisgarh -0.14 1454 1446 1176 All India 1.45 2078 2202 2186 Target CAGR 1.05 Note:* 4 th Advance Estimates **Working Group of Planning Commission (Based on TE 2006-07); Yellow : States showing CAGR less than target CAGR Green: States showing more than target CAGR
State CAGR of yield (2003-4 to 2007-08) Pulses Yield (Kg / Hectare) 2003-04 2007-08 2008-09* U.P -4.78 890 731 908 A.P. 9.09 567 803 821 M.P. -5.39 761 609 810 Bihar 0.13 814 818 804 Gujarat 3.06 748 843 757 Maharashtra 7.00 569 746 555 Chattisgarh -0.91 608 586 546 Orissa 4.01 382 446 473 Rajasthan -9.19 590 401 467 Karnataka 14.98 304 531 465 All India -0.43 635 625 655 Target CAGR** 0.24 Note:* 4 th Advance Estimates **Working Group of Planning Commission (Based on TE 2006-07); Yellow : States showing CAGR less than target CAGR: Green: States showing more than target CAGR
Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 1. High potential low productivity areas (Eastern U.P., Bihar, West Bengal, Orissa, Jharkhand and Chattisgarh) - Extending Green Revolution to ER 400 crores 2. Sustaining productivity in high productivity zones (Punjab, Haryana, Western U.P.) 3. Improving productivity in Coastal States - Multiple use of resources for mixed farming - Rain water harvesting / ground water recharge - DHORUV Technology
Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 4. ENHANCING RAIN WATER UTILIZATION (currently 29% is utilized) India largest ground water user in the world Exploiting 230 cubic kilometers of groundwater every year (1/4 th of global total) GW supports 60% irrigation and 80% rural and urban water supply 29% of ground water blocks are semi-critical, critical and over exploited By 2025, an estimated 60% of GW blocks will be in a critical situation Country receives average annual rainfall of about 1 meter Hardly 29% of rainfall utilized. Can it be increased to 40, 50, 60??? In situ / ex situ conservation / Ground water recharge Crop diversification from high to low water demanding crops
Rain water Harvest : The Best Option
Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 5. Surplus food from small farm holdings through multienterprize agriculture Nearly 50% farmers cultivate less than one hectare Integrated farming system approach Regular income and employment A way to organic farming Rs. 300 400 net income / day from one ha holding A way to coup up with predicted climate change Nutritional security
Multi enterprise Model
Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 6. Soil and water conservation strategy for hilly and foot hill zones 7. Soil health and water quality issues vis-à-vis human and animal health 8. Bridging yield gaps between frontline demonstrations and district average yields 9. Area expansion through the reclamation of nearly 120 m ha waste lands : salt affected, acidic, eroded, ravines etc (dovetailing of Central Schemes like NREGA, RKVY, NHM etc.)
Saline Waterlogged Soils Flouride Toxicity Arsenic Toxicity
Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 10 Couping-up strategies for predicted climate change : droughts, floods, heat and cold waves, frost etc 11. Conversion of waste into wealth : effective utilization of agricultural residues, waste water, use of industrial effluents 12. Remote sensing, GIS, GPS and Satellite techniques in assessment, implementation and monitoring of agricultural systems : Area coverage, crop condition and natural resources 13. Alternative livelihood opportunities in risk prone areas / alternative sources of food
Cold Wave of 2002-03 : Experience at Dehradun
Mango damaged by cold wave
( a )
( b ) Cold wave damaged crops of (a) tomato and (b) potato
Heat wave of March, 2004
Prosopis juliflora pods: An alternate source of human food and animal feed Alternate food, fodder and energy sources in dry areas
14. Effective working together mechanisms between research, development and policy at the district / block levels to ensure : Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward Farmers participatory seed production (KVK s, SAUs, Agriculture Departments, NGO s Private Sector etc. at the district / block level ) Revisiting productivity of Central and State owned farms Weather based forewarning advisories at the district level 15. Food Saved is Food Produced (post harvest and storage losses)
THE MESSAGE : Harvest and Store Rain water for Present and Future Generations
THE MESSAGE : Harvest and Store Rain water for Present and Future Generations