Energy Futures in South East Europe. Peter VAJDA, Environmental Expert, Energy Community Secretariat

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Energy Futures in South East Europe Peter VAJDA, Environmental Expert,

Geographical Scope

Facts and Figures TREATY ESTABLISHING THE ENERGY COMMUNITY - signed in October 2005; entered into force on 1 July 2006-8 Contracting Parties: Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, Ukraine, Kosovo* - 19 EU MS as Participants: AT, BG, HR, CZ, CY, FI, FR, DE, EL, HU, IT, LV, NL, PL, RO, SK, SI, SE, UK - 1 Candidate: Georgia - 3 Observers: Armenia, Norway, Turkey CONTENT - implementation of the Treaty acquis no dynamic adjustment to EU acquis requires Ministerial Council Decision - cooperation; infrastructure; reconstruction - stability as condition precedent to investments - stable legal framework - institutional framework * under UNSCR 1244

Institutions compared to EU-structure Energy Community Secretariat (+Cion) Steering Monitoring EU Cion Ministerial Council(1p.a.) Governments Ministerial Council PHLG (4 p.a.) Ministries ~ COREPER Gas, Electricity, Oil, Social ECRB (4 p.a.+ WGs) Fora Regulators Gas, Electricity, Oil, Social/ Customers ACER

Implementation report - Prepared annually by the Secretariat, published before Ministerial Council meeting - Monitoring the achievements of Contracting Parties towards compliance with the EnC acquis - Recommendations - Analysis by CP: Electricty, Gas, Environment, Energy Efficiency, Renewables, Oil, Statistics, Competition, Open Infringement Cases - Regional analysis: Investments, Social - https://www.energycommunity.org/portal/page/portal/enc_home/docs/3356393/energy _Community_Implementation_Report_2014_WEB.pdf

Activities relevant for low carbon development - Environmental measures - Energy Efficiency - Renewables

Legal framework on environment 1) Title II: ACQUIS of the EnC NETWORK ENERGY Environment - Environmental Impact Assessment (Directive 85/337/EEC) after entry into force - Sulphur in Fuels (Directive 1999/32/EC) as of 1 January 2012 - Large Combustion Plants (Directive 2001/80/EC) as of 1 January 2018 - Art. 4(2) Wild Birds (Directive 79/409/EEC) after entry into force - Construction and operation of new generating plants Industrial Emissions (Directive 2010/75/EU) as of 1 January 2018 - Endeavour to accede/implement: Kyoto Protocol; Council Directive 96/61/EC concerning integrated pollution prevention and control

The LCP Directive - First European legislative instrument in this field adopted in 1988 (88/609/EEC) - Current LCP Directive adopted in 2001, to be replaced by IED in 2016 in the EU (for existing plants) - Setting emission limit values for SO2, NOx and dust (particulate matter) for plants with a rated thermal input (RTI) 50 MW - ELVs may vary based on the RTI of the plant and on the type of fuel used - Provisions on monitoring - Flexibility mechanisms (national emission reduction plan, limited lifetime derogation, etc.)

Ministerial Council decision on LCPs - Adopted on 24 October 2013 - LCP implementing rules NERP: between 2018-2027 opt-out: between 2018-2023 - IED applies mandatorily for new plants from 2018 onwards - IED for existing plants: revision clause until end 2015 (recent COM proposal: 1 January 2028) - Conventional plants may still be kept in operation for some time but the costs need to be more and more internalized EE, RE

EEAPs and SEAPs show EE priorities National Energy Efficiency Action Plans 1 st NEEAP submitted by June 2010: 9% target 2009-2018 2 nd NEEAP by June 2013 (submitted by all CPs) Integrated Monitoring and Verification Platform (MVP) for NEAPs Implementation Available at: https://www.energycommunity.org/portal/page/portal/enc_home/area S_OF_WORK/Instruments/Energy_Efficiency/EEAPs MVP web based platform for monitoring and verification of energy savings - simple, flexible, sustainable! Sustainable energy action plans: http://www.covenantofmayors.eu/actions/sustainableenergy-action-plans_en.html 10

EEAPs and EE Target 2012 2012 2018 CONTRACTING PARTY TARGET ACHIEVED TARGET % OF REFERENCE CONSUMPTION ALBANIA 1.5 % 1.3% 9.0% BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 0.5% 1.1% 9.0% FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA 4.0% 2.6% 9.0% KOSOVO* 3.0% 3.1% 9.0% MONTENEGRO 2.0% 4.0% 9.0% SERBIA 1.5% 1.2% 9.0% MOLDOVA 4.4% (2015) NA 9.0% (2016) UKRAINE 2.0% (2014) NA 9.0% (2020) Source: Secretariat's Assessment of the 2nd National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (03 Mar 2014) 11

Main Financing Initiatives and Technical Assistance Programmes for EE EBRD / Regional Energy Efficiency Programme for the Western Balkans (REEP) The Green for Growth Fund Southeast Europe (GGF) GIZ Open Regional Fund - Energy Efficiency for SEE Neighborhood Investment Facility (NIF): Eastern Partnership Countries Eastern Europe Energy Efficiency and Environmental Partnership ( E5P ) INOGATE, World Bank, KfW, EIB, USAID, UNDP 12

Recent publication ENERGY COMMUNITY TAPPING ON ITS ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL CONTENT I. Energy Community Treaty and Energy Efficiency II. From laws to investments: Opportunities for energy efficiency financing a. Overview b. Main Financing Initiatives and Technical Assistance Programmes https://www.energycommunity.org/portal/page/portal/enc_home/n EWS/News_Details?p_new_id=11141 13

Renewable Energy Acquis 18 October 2012 Decision of the Ministerial Council on the implementation of the new RES Directive in the Energy Community D2012/04/MC-EnC; Decision of the Ministerial Council on the implementation of the rules on energy statistics in the Energy Community D2012/02/MC-EnC https://www.energycommunity.org/portal/page/portal/enc_home/inst_and_meeting S?event_reg.category=E12820

2020 RES Targets ALBANIA 31.227% 38% BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 33.983% 40% CROATIA 12.600% 20% FYR OF MACEDONIA 21.906% 28% KOSOVO* 18.876% 25% MOLDOVA 11.900% 17% MONTENEGRO 26.335% 33% SERBIA 21.234% 27% UKRAINE 6% 11%.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% RES Share 2009 2020 RES target * Throughout the entire document, this designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244 and ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence. 15

2020 RES Targets revised 2009 biomass data AL 20.098% 10.792% 6% 38% BiH 13.419% 20.564% 6% 40% MK 5% 16.030% 6% 28% MD ME RS UA 0% 1% 11.605% 5% 18.433% 7.902% 9.660% 11.520% 6% 4% 5% 11% 17% 6% 27% 33% Hydro Biomass Biofuels Geothermal Solar Additional effort UNMIK 1% 18.051% 6% 25% TOTAL 3% 6% 6% 16%.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 16

Implementation Deadlines of Directive 2009/28/EC Overall implementation deadline 1 January 2014 Submission of NREAPs 30 June 2013 Serbia, Kosovo*, Moldova, Ukraine, Montenegro - OK Dispute procedures started against Albania, BIH, former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Progress Report 2012-2013 31 December 2014 The Progress Report from Bosnia and Herzegovina is the only missing 17

Towards the 2020 RES targets RES Share vs. RED minimum Trajectory 2011/2012 [%] 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Median of 2011/2012 Shares RED minimum trajectory 2011/12 RED Target 2020 Median of 2011/2012 Shares (modified BM-H Data) 0% Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Kosovo* Moldova Montenegro FYR of Macedonia Serbia Ukraine 18

Future of the Energy Community - Treaty extended for an additional 10 years in 2013 (2016-2026) - In parallel, Ministerial Council mandated HLRG chaired by MEP Jerzy Buzek to carry out an overall analysis on the EnCT - Report published in June 2014 - Several recommendations regarding geographical coverage, new acquis (remarkable environmental dimension), introduction of a Court system, etc. - Secretariat in cooperation with COM to prepare an analytical paper by end 2014 on the HLRG s findings - Public consultation in early 2015 - Reform of Energy Community process of several years

Thank you for your attention! www.energy-community.org