Global Energy Demand in Transition The N ew Role of Electricity
Global Energy Demand in Transition The New Role ofelectricity Edited by Behram N. Kursunoglu Global Foundation. Inc. Coral Gables. Florida Stephan L. Mintz Florida International University Miami. Florida and Amold Perlmutter University 0/ Miami Miami. Florida Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
Llbrary of Congress Cataloglng-ln-Publlcatlon Data Global energy demand In transition: the new role of electrlclty edlted by Behram N. Kur unoglu, Stephan L. Mlntz, and Arnold Per I mutter. p. CN. "Proceedlngs of an International Conference on Global Energy Demand In Transition: the New Role of Electrlclty, held November 10-12, 1994, In Washington, D.C. "--T.p. verso. Includes blbllographlcal references and Index. 1. Power resources--congresses. 1. Kur unoglu, Behram, 1922-111. Perlmutter, Arnold, 1928- Global Energy Demand In Transition: (1994 : Washington, D.C.l TJ163.15.G56 1995 2. Electric power--congresses. 11. Mlntz, Stephan L. IV. International Conference on the New Role of Electrlclty 333.79'32--dc20 95-36853 CIP Proceedings of an International Conference on Global Energy Demand in Transition: The New Role of Electricity, held November 10--12, 1994, in Washington, D.C. ISBN 978-1-4899-1050-9 ISBN 978-1-4899-1048-6 (ebook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4899-1048-6 Springer Science+Business Media New York 1995 Originally published by Plenum Press, New York in 1995. Softcover reprint of the hardcover I st edition 1995 10987654321 All rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or byany means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording, or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher
PREFACE The annual conferences on energy, which were begun in 1977, continued to 1992 and resumed again in 1994. The theme of the 1994 conference was "Global Energy Demand in Transition: The New Role ofelectricity." Global energy production, distribution, and utilization is in astate of transition toward an increased and more diversified use of electricity, which is the safest, most versatile, and cleanest form of secondary energy. Electricity is easy to generate, transmit, and distribute, making its use practically universal. These facts make it urgent to explore the technological prospects and long term availability of environmentally benign energy sources for generating electricity. It is expected that the conference will be useful to the governments in formulating their energy policies and to the public utilities for their long term planning. The conference has: 1) assessed the increase and diversification in the use of electricity; 2) assessed the technological prospects for clean energy sources that still require more research and development, i.e. solar, hydrogen, nuclear (fission and fusion), etc.; 3) assessed the roles of non-market factors and possible improved decision processes on energy and environmental issues; 4) made concrete recommendations regarding research and development policies and regulations to expedite the transition to a dependable, safer, and benign electricity-based energy complex; 5) studied the cost impact: price, environment, safety, and international security; 6) provided an analysis of an expected transition from the fossil fuel transportation to electrical transportation (e.g., electric cars); 7) examined the role of nuclear energy to satisfy increasing energy demand to include new technologies for waste treatment and new reactor design; and 8) suggested ways to optimize the use of plutonium and highly enriched uranium from dismantled warheads safely and permanently. Editors v
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Board of Trustees and the Chainnan of the Board of the Global F oundation wish to acknowledge, gratefully, the support of this conference received from the following: General Electric Company Martin and Marietta Astronautics Black and Veatch Company Electric Power Research Institute Northrop Grumman Aerospace Company Bechtel Power Corporation ABB Combustion Engineering, Inc. vi
CONTENTS SUMMARY OF THE CONFERENCE Presentations on Global Energy Demand in Transition: Informal Notes... 3 Jose G. Martin SECTION 1- FORESEEABLE EXPANSION OF THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY Energy Black Hole... 31 Behram N. Kursunog1u Global Energy and Electricity Futures... 33 Chauncey Starr U.S. and World Electric Generation Forecast... 41 Thomas F. Garrity Environmentallmpacts of Electricity Production............................................. 51 Richard Wilson SECTION 11 - FACTORS THAT DRIVE THE EVOLUTION OF THE MARKET SHARESOFENERGYSOURCES Issues Related to the Growth of Electricity in Global Energy Demand... 69 Marcelo Alonso Forecast of the Global Electricity Market... 71 A. Langmo and C. Braun Remarks before the International Conference on Global Energy Demand in Transition... 89 James D. Shiffer SECTION 111- THE ROLE OF NATURAL GAS IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION An Objective Analysis ofthe Prospects for Gas-Fired Electric Generation in the U.S... 99 Glenn R. Schleede SECTION IV - ENERGY INTERDEPENDENCY AND ITS IMPACT ON ENVIRONMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY The Use ofenergy Interdependence as a Political Tool... 123 Leon Goure vii
Protection ofthe Environment through Power from Space: Science Fiction or Future Reality?... 129 Curt Mileikowsky New Coa1-Based Teehnologies for Nuclear Graphite and Strategie Carbon Materials... 143 Alfred H. Stiller, John W. Zond10, and Caulton L. Irwin SECTION V - NUCLEAR REACTORS, NEW TECHNOLOGIES Advaneed Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR)/First-of-a-Kind Engineering (FOAKE) Program... 153 Steven A. Hucik AP600 - A New Order ofbusiness... 161 H. J. Bruschi, C. G. Durfee, and W. C. Gang10ff The Future of Nuclear Energy: Is There a Future?... 169 Bertram Wolfe SECTION VI - BURNING OF PLUTONIUM, HEU, AND NUCLEAR WASTE TRANSMUTATION TECHNOLOGIES Considerations for Aeeeierator-Driven Transmutation ofnuclear Waste... 187 Anthony Favale and David Berwald Aeeeierator-Based Systems for Plutonium Destruetion and Nuclear Waste Transmutation... 201 E. D.Arthur Capability ofthe GE "Advaneed Boiling Water Reactor" (ABWR) to Burn HEU and Pu as Fuel... 223 Robert C. Berglund Use ofwnp-2 to Burn HEU & Pu as Fuel... 229 William G. Counsil The Importanee to the Civil Nuclear Industry of Absorbing Dismantled Military Material... 237 Gerald E. Clark and Robin Bhar SECTION VII - POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS Opening Statement... 247 Henry King Stanford Conclusions on Energy Poliey... 249 Edward TeUer Poliey: Integrated Resouree Planning to Optimize Energy Services... 251 Arthur H. Rosenfeld Poliey Reeommendations... 253 David Berwald INDEX... 255 viii