Modeling risk on planted forests in South Africa Ilaria Germishuizen Institute for Commercial Forestry Research (ICFR) Pietermaritzburg (South Africa) Ilaria.germishuizen@icfr.ukzn.ac.za ICFR 2014
Background: Forestry in South Africa Static land base of 1 300 000 ha (1% of the country). Plantations of exotic tree species (Genera: Pinus, 52%; Eucalyptus, 40%; Acacia, 7%; Other, 1%). Single species even age units/compartments. Short rotation (pulp: 6 14 years; sawtimber: 25 30 years). 2 Summer rainfall region Winter rainfall region All year rain
Research focus 3 Risk modeling Climate change - Shifts in optimal forestry areas - Drought risk - Fire risk - Frost risk - Site x genotype matching breeding strategy - Adapting silvicultural practices to reduce risk and enhance productivity Pests and pathogens - Bioclimatic risk models - Sensitivity studies } New and existing P&D
Climate change 4 Six Global Circulation Models (GCM) Regionally downscaled SRES: A2 Monthly precipitation, tmax, tmin from 1960 to 2100 Model Name Institution Country Mk3.5, 2001 Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) Australia GFDL-CM2.0, 2005 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Unites States GFDL-CM2.1, 2005 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Unites States MIROC 3.2, 2004 Centre for Climate System Research (CCSR), University of Tokyo Japan ECHAM 5, MPI-OM, 2005 Marx Plank Institute for Meteorology Germany UKMO-HadGEM1, 2004 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office United Kingdom Main trends for Southern Africa: MAT increases up to twice global rate MAP: Some areas becoming dryer, other wetter. Erratic rainfall patterns. Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events (drought, extreme temperatures, extreme rainfall events)
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Remote sensing for monitoring Aridity Index: 9 MODIS 16 Data (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, NASA) Modis data used to develop an Aridity Index based on Tsakiris & Vangelis (2005): a = 1 a = 0 Rainfall (P) = Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) Drought 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Zululand - Coastal Aridity Index 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Long Term 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Aridity Index Stand growth (Diameter at Breast Height (DBH) increase)
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Current dominant species in SA plantation forestry Pinus patula Pinus elliottii Pinus taeda Eucalyptus grandis Eucalyptus nitens Eucalyptus smithii Eucalyptus grandis x Eucalyptus urophylla Acacia mearnsii
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Pests and pathogens A major and growing threat to the forestry sector in South Africa Strongly climate driven Susceptibility increased by physiological stress } Linked to climate change Case study: Leptocybe invasa (Eucalyptus gall wasp)
14 Climate change models indicate that South Africa is shifting towards drier conditions Indigenous vegetation most affected: forest and grassland biomes Loss in biodiversity, species Plantation forestry heavily affected Sustainability at risk Thank you