IEEJ Mar. 2018 15 th ASEAN+3 ENERGY SECURITY FORUM (ESF) on 29 Mar. 2018 Current issues on Nuclear Policy in Japan Ichiro Kutani Manager, Global Energy Group 1, Strategy Research Unit The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Impact on Energy Security Nuclear power in Japan has contributed to diversify generation mix and improve self-sufficiency rate. Before the Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011: 54 reactors, contributing approximately 30% of total electricity generation In 2016: the electricity generation of nuclear power was only 17TWh, approximately 2% of total power generation Trend of electricity generation in Japan with 2030 target Energy self-sufficiency rate of Japan with 2030 target (TWh) 1400 Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Other renewables Others 50% 1200 40% 1000 800 30% 22% 24% 600 20% 400 200 10% 6% 7% 0 0% 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2030 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2030 Source: IEA, World Energy Balances 2017; author calculated and added the data for 2030; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Strategic Energy Policy 2014 1
Impact on Energy Security The loss of nuclear power has been compensated by an increase in fossil fuel imports by value and volume. Impact on trade-deficit Impact on recorded highest level of GHG emissions in 2013 The cost and volume of imported fossil fuels (billion yen) 25,000 Thermal coal Crude oil LNG (million ton) 400 Thermal coal Crude oil LNG 350 20,000 300 15,000 250 200 10,000 150 5,000 100 50 0 0 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Source: Ministry of Finance, Trade Statistics of Japan; IEEJ-EDMC, EDMC Databank 2
Periodic Review of Strategic Energy Plan The Strategic Policy Committee started discussion on revising the current (4th) Strategic Energy Plan in August 2017. The new plan is expected to be published by summer 2018. Energy mix target in 2030 seems to be maintained. Unit: million kl oil equivalent 600 572 Primary Energy Demand 548 538 542 Unit: 100 GWh 14000 Power Generation Mix 500 400 300 200 8% 24% 25% Renewables Nuclear LNG Coal 489 14% 10% 19% 25% 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 9,666 9,808 10,650 17% saving Renewables 22~24% Nuclear 20~22% LNG 27% 100 43% Oil 32% 2000 Coal 26% 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2030 0 Oil 3% 2013 2030 2030 (Electricity demand) (Electricity generation) 3
Challenges for Nuclear Energy in Japan Three challenges to achieve 2030 target: Japan needs about 30-35 GW of nuclear power in 2030 Restart of existing reactors Only 5 reactors are in operation, Some court ordered temporary injunction against operation NRA s process is slow and timeconsuming. Lifetime extension of existing reactors 3 reactors got approvals, One in process New construction? At least positive statements should be included into a new Strategic Energy Plan Other challenges (see reference slides): Decommissioning Fukushima Daiichi: gradually progressing, others: decommissioning is low priority Nuclear fuel cycle MOX plant and Reprocessing Plant: still under construction HLW siting process: Opinion exchange meetings have been held Fast reactor: JAEA applied to approve decommissioning plan of Monju to NRA. Strategic Roadmap of fast reactor developments will be published in 2018. 4
Restart of existing reactors: 40 operable reactors (as of Mar. 2018) Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, Tokyo Electric Power Company Shika, Hokuriku Electric Power Company 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2 Higashidori, Tohoku Electric Power Company 1 2 Higashidori, Tokyo Electric Power Company 1 Tomari, Hokkaido Electric Power Company 1 2 3 Ohma, Japan Power Development Company Tsuruga, The Japan Atomic Power Company 1 2 3 4 Mihama, Kansai Electric Power Company 3 Onagawa, Tohoku Electric Power Company 1 2 Fukushima Daini, Tokyo Electric Power Company 3 Ohi, Kansai Electric Power Company 3 4 1 2 3 4 Takahama, Kansai Electric Power Company Tokai Daini, The Japan Atomic Power Company 1 2 3 4 Shimane, Chugoku Electric Power Company Hamaoka, Chubu Electric Power Company 2 3 3 4 5 Kaminoseki, Chugoku Electric Power Company 1 2 Genkai, Kyushu Electric Power Company 2 3 4 Sendai, Kyushu Electric Power Company 1 2 3 Restarted Ikata, Shikoku Electric Power Company 2 3 Passed review Under review by NRA Units Total output (GW) Capacity In operation In operation 40 39.132 Under construction Under construction 3 4.141 500MW or less 1000MW or less more than 1000MW Planning Planning 6 8.797 Total 49 52.07 [Permanent Shutdown] Tokai: Japan Atomic Power Company, Hamaoka Unit1&2:Chubu Electric Power Company, Fukushima Daiichi Unit1-6:Tokyo Electric Power Company, Tsuruga Unit1: Japan Atomic Power Company, Mihama Unit 1&2, Ohi Unit1&2: Kansai Electric Power Company, Shimane Unit1: Chugoku Electric Power Company, Genkai Unit1: Kyushu Electric Power Company, Ikata Unit1: Shikoku Electric Power Company 5
Restart of existing reactors: 1st & 2nd Group restarted/final stage for restart/lifetime extension approved 1 st Units Application to NRA Restart Duration (days) Sendai 1 7/8/2013 8/14/2015 767 Sendai 2 7/8/2013 10/21/2015 835 Takahama 3 7/8/2013 2/1/2016 938 Takahama 4 7/8/2013 2/27/2016 964 No. of hearings Ikata 3 * 7/8/2013 8/15/2016 1,134 498 2 nd Units * On Dec. 2017, Hiroshima High Court ordered the temporary injunction against operation of Ikata 3. (Ikata 3 has been in the periodical inspection since Oct. 2017.) Application to NRA Permission for Changes in Reactor Installation Duration (days) 802 553 No. of hearings ( ): >April 2017 Genkai 3, 4 7/12/2013 1/18/2017 1,286 426(82) Ohi 3, 4 7/8/2013 5/24/2017 1,416 465(73) KK 6, 7 9/27/2013 12/27/2017 1,552 644(93) 2 nd Units Application for lifetime extension Lifetime extension approved Duration (days) No. of hearings Takahama 1, 2 3/17/2015 6/20/2016 461 233 Mihama 3 3/17/2015 11/16/2016 610 201 Source: Nuclear Regulation Authority 6
Restart of existing reactors: 3rd Group still under review 3 rd Units Capacity (MW) Application to NRA No. of hearings ( ): >April 2017 Tomari 3 912 7/8/2013 374(0) Shimane 2 820 12/25/2013 190(2) Onagawa 2 825 12/27/2013 236(59) Hamaoka 4 1137 2/14/2014 187(4) Tokai Daini 1100 5/20/2014 704(599) Higashidori 1 1100 6/10/2014 - Tomari 1, 2 579*2 7/8/2013 50(0) Shika 2 1206 8/12/2014 - Hamaoka 3 1100 6/16/2015 - Tsuruga 2 1160 11/5/2015 - Other 15 reactors (total 14.3GW without applications to NRA): Time for decision making?? Source: Nuclear Regulation Authority 7
Lifetime extension of existing reactors Lifetime extension is also a time-consuming process. Special inspection, assessment on deterioration, and long-term maintenance and management policies are needed for extension. The electric power companies can start Special inspection after 35 years of operation period, and they cannot submit the application for extension without the results of Special inspection. Source: Nuclear Regulation Authority, New Regulatory Requirements for Light-Water Nuclear Power Plants 8
Mapping reactors by age and capacity 1600 Capacity (MW) 1400 1200 1000 800 KK-7 KK-6 Tsuruga-2* Fukushima Daini-4 Hamaoka-5 Hamaoka-3 (applied to Genkai-3 Ohi-4 Fukushima Daini-2 restart) Shika-2* Ohi-3 Ohi-1,2 Genkai-4 Hamaoka-4 Higashidori-1* Tokai II Fukushima Daini-1 KK-4 KK-2,5 Fukushima Daini-3 KK-3 KK-1 Tomari-3 Sendai-2 Ikata-3 Sendai-1 Takahama-2** Onagawa-3 Takahama-3,4 Takahama-1** Onagawa-2 Shimane-2 Mihama-3** 600 400 Shika-1* : reactors with applications to restart : reactors without applications to restart : reactors decided to be decommissioned Tomari-2 Tomari-1 Ikata-2 Ikata-1 Genkai-2 Onagawa-1 Genkai-1 Mihama-2 Shimane-1 Tsuruga-1 Mihama-1 200 * Reactors claimed for on-site active faults 0 ** Takahama-1,2 and Mihama-3 are over 40 years old, have got the extension of operating period up to 60 years by NRA. (as of December2017) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Operation period (year) Source: IEEJ 9
Conclusion Nuclear power plants in Japan has contributed to diversify generation mix and improve self-sufficiency rate energy security. However, the current level of energy self-sufficiency rate is far from 2030 target. How to achieve 2030 target? Accelerating regulatory reviewing process by NRA would be on the top priority. NRA and the power companies should establish a fifty-fifty relationship. NRA should have more reasonable regulations/reviewing process with considering economic efficiency. It is necessary to create a scheme to evaluate/monitor NRA via third parties or auditors. The Diet should enhance their interests/authority to oversight the regulator. Also, the government should show a clear and consistent nuclear energy policy towards 2050. The power companies should also continue their efforts to lower generation costs under the status quo of liberalized electricity markets. 10
For your reference: Decommissioning of existing reactors NRA approved the power companies decommissioning plans: April 9, 2017: Mihama-1&2, Shimane-1, Genkai-1, Tsuruga-1 / June 28, 2017: Ikata-1 However, for power companies, decommissioning is low priority compared with restart of existing reactors Also, more fundamental issues: Secure facility for spent fuel interim storage and waste disposal Understanding from Stakeholder (local governments and the regulator etc) Cost down of dismantling and treatment of wastes Source: Japan Atomic Power Company 11
For your reference: Reprocessing Plant Japan Nuclear Fuel Limited (JNFL) has several facilities in Rokkasho: Reprocessing Plant: plans to complete the construction by the first half of fiscal year 2021 Uranium Enrichment Plant: in operation (stopped its production since FY2013) Mox Fuel Fabrication Plant: plans to complete the construction by the first half of fiscal year 2022 Vitrified Waste Storage: in operation Plant Application to NRA No. of hearings ( ): >April 2017 Reprocessing Plant 1/7/2014 324 (42) Enrichment Plant 1/7/2014 163 (7) Mox Fuel Fabrication Plant 1/7/2014 247 (38) Vitrified Waste Storage 1/7/2014 85 (19) Source: Nuclear Regulation Authority 12
For your reference: Final disposal of High-level radioactive waste The government published the Nationwide Map of Scientific Features for Geological Disposal in July 2017. This does not decide a disposal site, but the first step on the long road toward the decision of the site. Area with unfavorable features: Orange, Silver Orange area is the area which may damage long-term stability of geological environment. (e.g. close to volcanos Silver area is the area endowed with natural resources. (e.g. oil, gas and coal field) Area with good chance to be confirmed as having favorable characteristics: Green This area doesn t have unfavorable features (requirements). Dark green is the area favorable from the viewpoint of waste transportation. 13
For your reference: Final disposal of High-level radioactive waste NUMO is carrying out nationwide face-to-face dialogue with the public in areas preferable also from the viewpoint of waste transport safety, to pursue the understanding of the public. Publish Nationwide Map The map categorizes all areas in Japan into four categories based on nationwide data Nationwide/Local Face-to-face dialogs NUMO will carry out nationwide PR activities NUMO will supports dialogs and learning in each local area NUMO will enhance R&D NUMO will have discussions on community supports We are here if there will be some volunteers Three survey stages for siting based on the Act NUMO will conduct three survey/investigations at individual sites after obtaining local understanding: Literature survey If Safety is confirmed Preliminary investigations Detailed investigations Selection of a repository construction site Construc tion Bring in & bury HLW Closure of the facility 14