SEA for Baffin Bay and Davis Strait Two New Scenarios Nunavut Tunngavik Incorporated SEA Final Public Meeting March 19, 2019 1
Focus of our Presentation 1. Possible production of LNG from the Saglek Basin in southern Davis Strait 2. The need to deal with climate change may result in no development 2
Why more scenarios? Consider: 1. Oil and gas potential 2. Sea ice 3. Climate change mitigation 3
Where is the oil and gas potential? BF Baffin Fan Saglek Basin SB 4
Development in the Baffin Fan is limited by the Lancaster Sound NMCA 5
Scenario #1 Saglek Basin Production 6
The Hekja scenario: Hekja field and Hekja East 7
Floating Gas Platform (FLNG) The Prelude 8
Breakup and freezeup of Nunavut ice Ice from late October or November to July or August 9
Ice moves at 10 to 15 km per day WCG = West Greenland Current BC = Baffin Current LC = Labrador Green light 2-7 km/day Purple- moderate 9 17 km/day Red strong 19 or more km/day Multi-year ice enters through Lancaster Sound and Nares Strait 10
Subsea-to-Shore: Snøhvit LNG Project, Norway Lower: Wellheads and facilities on the seafloor Upper: Processing Plant on Melkoya Island, Norway 11
Snøhvit processing plant Area is free of sea ice and icebergs. 12
The Hekja gas field and adjacent structure Hekja field (and SDL) is 80 km east of Loks Land (island) and 120 km from IOL (green) on Hall Peninsula Dotted red line shows the approximate area of a seismic structure 13
Development timeline for Saglek Basin Period Event Early Late 2021 2021 5-year review of moratorium done 2022 2022 CIRNAC decision to open some areas 2022-2023 2023-2024 Seismic surveys 2022-2024 2023-2025 Calls for Nominations 2024 2025 Areas nominated. Calls for Bids; Exploration Licences (EL) 2024-2034 2025-2035 EL Period 1. More Seismic surveys; Drilling 1+ wells 2023 2035 Drilling is successful possible oil and/or gas 2034-2036 2035-2041 EL Period 2. Drilling; Signif. Discovery Declaration SDL granted 2036-2040 2041-2046 More drilling and studies; Commercial Discovery Declaration 2040-2044 2046-2050 Feasibility studies; Development Plan; authorization issued 2044 2050 Production Licence granted 2044-2048 2050-2055 Construction 2048 2055 First oil or gas produced and shipped 2048-2068 2055-2080 Production; drilling more wells; expansion; decommissioning 14
Scenario #2 Climate Change/No Development 15
The Climate Change Problem Climate change present a danger to society The Paris Agreement has set goals of 2⁰C for the maximum temperature increase (above mid-1800s) and net-zero CO2 emissions This will reduce demand for oil and gas and may make Nunavut production uneconomic IF society meets the goals, the result will be No Oil and Gas Development in Nunavut 16
Emissions under Paris Agreement 17
Abundance of Coal, Oil and Gas Source: McGlade and Ekins 18
Demand for Coal, Oil and Gas under Paris Saglek Production Scenario 19
Changing Energy Use 20
Conclusions The most promising scenario for oil or gas in BB/DS is the production of gas from the Hekja field and a nearby structure ( Hekja East ) in the Saglek Basin. Offshore gas would be piped 80 km to Loks Land or the nearby mainland and converted to LNG, which would be shipped to markets by ice-breaking carriers. However, if countries reduce their use of fossil fuels in order to cut GHG emissions and mitigate dangerous climate change as many committed to do under the Paris Agreement demand for oil and gas will fall. There would be no oil and gas development in Nunavut. BUT, If the goals are missed, development may be possible. An in-depth study of the two scenarios is needed now. 21
Thank you ᖁᔭᓐᓇᒦᒃ 22