Sustainable Consumption and Production: How to Make it Possible Learning from Others Courtney Peyton Managing Director, March 20th 2008, Vilnius, Lithuania
Likely climate impacts: At lowest potential temperature rises Temp rise ( C) Water Food Health Land Environment Abrupt and LargeScale Impacts 1 C Small glaciers in the Andes disappear completely, threatening water supplies for 50 million people Modest increases in cereal yields in temperate regions At least 300,000 people each year die from climaterelated diseases... Reduction in winter mortality in higher latitudes (Northern Europe, USA) Permafrost thawing damages buildings and roads in parts of Canada and Russia At least 10% of land species facing extinction (according to one estimate) 80% bleaching of coral reefs, including Great Barrier Reef Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation starts to weaken 2 C Potentially 20-30% decrease in water availability in some vulnerable regions, e.g. Southern Africa and Mediterranean Sharp declines in crop yield in tropical regions (5-10% in Africa) 40 60 million more people exposed to malaria in Africa Up to 10 million more people affected by coastal flooding each year 15 40% of species facing extinction (according to one estimate) High risk of extinction of Arctic species, including polar bear and caribou 3 C In Southern Europe, serious droughts occur once every 10 years 1-4 billion more people suffer water shortages, while 1 5 billion gain water, which may increase flood risk 150-550 additional millions at risk of hunger (if carbon fertilisation weak) Agricultural yields in higher latitudes likely to peak 1 3 million more people die from malnutrition (if carbon fertilisation weak) 1 170 million more people affected by coastal flooding each year Sources: Stern and IPCC Potential for Greenland ice sheet to begin melting irreversibly, accelerating sea level rise and committing world to an eventual 7 m sea level rise Rising risk of abrupt changes to 20 50% of species atmospheric facing extinction circulations, e.g. the (according to one monsoon estimate), including 25 Rising risk of collapse 60% mammals, 30 of West Antarctic Ice 40% birds and 15 Sheet 70% butterflies in Rising risk of collapse South Africa. Onset of of Atlantic Amazon forest collapse Thermohaline (some models only) Circulation
Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels Stabilisation level (ppm CO2-eq) Global Mean temperature increase at equilibrium (ºC) Year global CO2 needs to peak Year global CO2 emissions back at 2000 level Reduction in 2050 global CO2 emissions compared to 2000 445 490 2.0 2.4 2000-2015 2000-2030 -85 to -50 490 535 2.4 2.8 2000-2020 2000-2040 -60 to -30 535 590 2.8 3.2 2010-2030 2020-2060 -30 to +5 590 710 3.2 4.0 2020-2060 2050-2100 +10 to +60 710 855 4.0 4.9 2050-2080 +25 to +85 855 1130 4.9 6.1 2060-2090 +90 to +140 Sources: Stern and IPCC
Impacts and Costs are Soaring
Buildings & Infrastructure are the Biggest Culprits UK National Energy Consumption 2005 & Buildings Industy & Agriculture: 19% Buildings: Heating, Lighting & Ventilation: 46% Transportaion of Goods & People: 30% Buildings: Construction 5% Source: Rough Guide to Sustainability 2nd Edition, Edwards, Brian, 2005
Thoughts on How to Balance the Costs of Massive Change
Scottish Government 80% reduction in emissions by 2050 = 3%/pa or 15% by 2012 University of Glasgow Sullivan Report urging higher building standards New Built Environment Directorate building and planning together Existing buildings getting on agenda EPCs nearing final deadlines National govt agencies providing guidelines for sustainable design Page 16, High Performance Buildings 1. The Business Case for Universities and Colleges, March 2008
New Build in the Countryside Scottish Natural Heritage
Ecological Footprinting Aberdeen/Aberdeenshire
Regeneration of Historic Urban Buildings Trongate
Sustainable Volume Building?? Morrison's homes
Re-use & Post Occupancy Evaluations WWF
Sustainable Planning and Design Standards Inverness & Highlands
Sustainable Suburbia Domus Vogrie Road
Leadership in Our Capital City Edinburgh balancing new & old
Tourism and Livability in Balance Edinburgh UNESCO World Heritage City
Sustainable Design & Procurement Standards City of Edinburgh Council New HQ
Great Missed Opportunities Scottish Parliament
Early Steps Towards Sustainability * Edinburgh Environmental Partnership > ESDP * Lord Provost Commission SD * Site Planning for Sustainable Development * Greenways > Congestion Charges (failed) > Trams * Fair Trade City * Climate Change Declaration * Edinburgh Standards for SB * Decentralised Energy Strategy
Places to Intervene in a System Donella Meadows 12 Constants, parameters, numbers (taxes, subsidies, standards) 11 Size of buffers to flows 10 Structure of material stocks and flows (transport networks) 9 Lengths of delays 8 Negative feedback loops 7 Positive feedback loops 6 Information flows 5 Rules (incentives, punishments, constraints) 4 Power to add, change, evolve, self organise 3 2 1 Goals Paradigm Power to transcend paradigms
Places to Intervene in a System Donella Meadows 12 Constants, numbers (taxes, subsidies) 11 Size of buffers 10 Structure of material flows (transport networks) 9 Lengths of delays 8 Negative feedback loops 7 Positive feedback loops 6 Information flows 5 Rules (incentives, punishments, constraints) 4 Power to add, change, evolve, self organise 3 Goals 2 Paradigm 1 Power to transcend paradigms * Edinburgh Environmental Partnership > ESDP * Lord Provost Commission SD * Site Planning for Sustainable Development * Greenways > Congestion Charges (failed) > Trams * Fair Trade City * Climate Change Declaration * Edinburgh Standards for SB * Decentralised Energy Strategy * Low Carbon Communities
Courtney.Peyton@thirdwave.org.uk