Wo r k i n g t o g e t h e r t o s a v e l i v e s a n d l i v e l i h o o d s Syrian Arab Republic Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission May 2017
Methodology Meetings in Damascus Ministries Agriculture Water resources Environment Cereal (HOBOOB) GOSM UN agencies Food security/nutrition cluster NGOs Field visits Core team Aleppo, Al- Hasakeh, Homs, Hama, Tartous, Rural Damascus, As-Sweida National teams All governorates Field Governorate officials Crop inspections Farmers Livestock owners Traders, bakeries Displaced, resident household & returnees Secondary data Rainfall data Satellite imagery NDVI, ASI, mvam
Limitations Short duration Insecurity Travel restrictions Crop area estimation Audit
Governorates visited by core team
Syria. Agro-ecological zones
2016 Rainfall anomaly, February - May 2017
2016 Agricultural Stress Index, February - May 2017
Inputs Fuel: Expensive, but more available than last year Mechanization: Slight increase in availability Labour: locally scarce Fertilizer: Homs factory attacked and closed Seed: limited availability. Own seed Pesticides: prices have doubled in 12 months Cost of cereal production: up about 40% compared with last year
Irrigation Slight improvement compared with last year Public irrigation 600000 Better rains, better river flows, more security 500000 Reduced rate of destruction 400000 ha 300000 High cost of pumping 200000 100000 Uncontrolled drilling - local increases in salinity 0 Capacity 2016/17
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cereal production Wheat Yield, t/ha Prod., million t Barley 000 ha and 000 t 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 t/ha Wheat: 1.8 Barley: 1.0 Wheat: 1.8 Barley: 0.78 000 ha and 000 t 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 t/ha 000 ha 000 t t/ha 000 ha 000 t t/ha
Other crops Little change in horticultural production since last year Slight easing of transport constraints Crop protection materials expensive Seed limited Increasing area under cumin, coriander and lentils ha 150000 100000 50000 Cotton ha 30000 20000 10000 Sugar beet ha 15000 10000 5000 Tobacco 0 2011 2017 0 2011 2017 0 2011 2017
Livestock Greatly reduced numbers Shortage of vaccines and other veterinary products Shortage of veterinarians Health nevertheless relatively good High cost of feed Increasing tendency towards backyard poultry production Good pastures but access limited by insecurity million 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Numbers Sheep Goats Cattle Poultry 2011 2015 2016 2017
Recommendations on agriculture Address the immediate needs Protect, improve and restore agricultural livelihoods Priority actions Provide quality seed for 2017/18 season and support local seed production Rehabilitate irrigation systems in secure areas Support backyard vegetable and poultry production Support livestock vaccination programmes
Displacement Populuation by displacement status IDPs Millions have fled war-torn Syria 36% are on the move inside Syria 6.3 million internally displaced most of them multiple times 440,000 people have returned to their home areas Fluidity of the conflict has resulted in new displacements 50% % Change in IDPs since beginning 2017 32.9% Returnees 0% 64.8% 2.3% Residents -50%
Humanitarian access Access continues to be heavily constrained across Syria Some of the previous besieged areas are now considered hard-to-reach Humanitarian situation in Deir-ez-Zor city has improved due to air-drops Situation in Ar-Raqqa has become critical due to the continuous fighting
Market trends Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 SEP DEC JAN MAY SEP DEC JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN FEB MAR APR MAY Opening of supply routes, trade is slowly recovering Food prices continue to be very high Markets in parts of Eastern Aleppo city slowly starting to recover Prices highly volatile in besieged areas zones 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - Cost of the standard food basket in Deir-ez-Zor 14,500 12,500 10,500 8,500 6,500 4,500 2,500 500 Wholesale prices, 2014-17 (bag of 25 kg/syp) 2014 2015 2016 2017 Wheat Rice
Food consumption Nearly every third Syrian household has an unacceptable diet Situation worse among IDPs, returnees and people living and in besieged and hard-to-reach areas Female headed households and large households with many children are more likely to have poor quality consumption 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Poor and borderline food consumption 19% 23% Less than 1 year displaced 28% 20% 29% 23% 8% 5% 7% 7% More than 1 year displaced Poor Resident Female Male Borderline
Coping and asset depletion Syrians apply a high degree of coping strategies Every second households reduced the number of meals Every third restricts the consumption of adults to prioritize children Assets have been largely depleted Child labour and early drop-outs of school continue to be a major coping strategy of displaced households 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 8% 72% Selling assets 35% 8% 57% 44% 7% 48% IDP Returnees Resident No need Adopted during last 30 days No assets/depleted
Food security trends 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 37% 35% Currently food insecure 24% 30% At risk - without assistance provided Trend 2016/17 2016 2017 16% At risk - depleting assets 23% 17% 18% Currently food secure
Food security overview - estimates 6.9 million 5.6 million 3.1 million 3.5 million Food insecure At risk to become food insecure without assistance provided At risk as they are depleting assets Currently food secure! Assessments are ongoing and new data will become available in 3 rd quarter
Recommendations on food security Address the immediate needs Provide basis for sustainable longer term solutions Priority actions Continue life-saving assistance, while gradually increasing the focus on livelihood activities to rebuild resilience Expand the existing school meals and back-to school initiatives Expand the nutrition programme Monitor areas with new influxes of IDPs
Thank you