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MEET2030: incertezas, cenários e tecnologias para Portugal Tiago Domingos e António Alvarenga
Climate and Energy Policy Transition to a low or zero-carbon economy over the next decades 4
Numa economia neutra em carbono, como vai Portugal conseguir criar emprego e crescer?
Scenarios and Foresight
Foresight: European Commission-JRC IPTS A systematic, participatory, futureintelligence-gathering and medium-to-longterm vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilizing joint actions. EC-JRC-IPTS, 2005
Scenarios and Foresight Foresight
Scenarios and Foresight Foresight La Prospective Futures Studies Futures Scenarios
Scenarios Scenarios: Fuller (2001) Scenarios are not predictions, but ways of illuminating possible futures. Scenarios are provisional knowledge. Scenarios: Ogilvy and Schwartz (2004) Narratives of alternative environments in which today s decisions may be played out. Scenarios: Schwartz (1996) Scenarios are tools for ordering one's perceptions about alternative future environments in which today's decisions might be played out.
Scenarios Fonte: Joseph Voros
Focal issue and time horizon Focal Issue: The Future of the Portuguese Economy...... in the context of the fourth industrial revolution and the relationship between energy efficiency and economic growth...... taking into account the national and European commitment to achieving carbon neutrality. Time Horizon: 2030. but with an eye on the 2030-2050 period
The puzzle of economic growth
(Mrd) Capital, Labour and GDP: Portugal 1960-2009 200 180 GDP 160 140 120 100 Capital & labour 80 60 40 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 4 Total Factor Productivity (TFP) 3 2 1 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: European Commission s Annual Macroeconomic Database (AMECO); Penn World Tables 9.0; INE.
Can energy explain economic growth?
Can energy explain economic growth? Could energy be an explanatory factor for total factor productivity (TFP)? Let us measure energy considering useful exergy 16
Why exergy? The statement a lamp consumes energy is WRONG Energy is conserved, so a lamp cannot consume energy A lamp degrades energy, reducing its quality We can do much more with electricity than with heat and light So, electricity has a higher exergy than heat and light The statement a lamp consumes exergy is RIGHT
Why useful exergy? Coal Power station Electricity Lamp Light 40% Final Exergy 20% 40% Useful Exergy Heat Primary Exergy 30% Waste Heat 18
Exergy (PJ) Final and useful exergy, Portugal 1856-2009 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 Final exergy 300 200 100 Useful exergy Serrenho, A. C., B. Warr, T. Sousa, R.U. Ayres, T. Domingos (2016). Structure and dynamics of useful work along the agriculture-industry-services transition: Portugal from 1856 to 2009. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 36, 1-21. 0 18501860187018801890190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010
Final-to-useful efficiency, Portugal 1856-2009 25% 20% 15% Final-to-useful efficiency 10% 5% Serrenho, A. C., B. Warr, T. Sousa, R.U. Ayres, T. Domingos (2016). Structure and dynamics of useful work along the agriculture-industry-services transition: Portugal from 1856 to 2009. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 36, 1-21. 0% 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Exergy (PJ) Final and useful exergy, Portugal 1856-2009 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 Final exergy 300 200 100 Useful exergy Serrenho, A. C., B. Warr, T. Sousa, R.U. Ayres, T. Domingos (2016). Structure and dynamics of useful work along the agriculture-industry-services transition: Portugal from 1856 to 2009. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 36, 1-21. 0 18501860187018801890190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010
Exergy / GDP (MJ/2010 ) Final and useful exergy intensities, Portugal 1856-2009 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 Final exergy / GDP 6 4 2 Useful exergy / GDP Serrenho, A. C., B. Warr, T. Sousa, R.U. Ayres, T. Domingos (2016). Structure and dynamics of useful work along the agriculture-industry-services transition: Portugal from 1856 to 2009. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 36, 1-21. 0 18501860187018801890190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010
Exergy / GDP (MJ/2010 ) 30% 20% Final-to-useful efficiency 4 3 Total Factor Productivity (TFP) 2 10% 1 0% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 4 3 ln TFP / ln Efficiency 8 6 Final exergy / GDP 2 4 1 2 Useful exergy / GDP 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
The Sustainable Fourth Industrial Revolution
Scarce Abundant Energy, information and total factor productivity in the four industrial revolutions 4 th? Weak effect on total factor productivity Strong effect on total factor productivity Information 3 rd Pre-industrial 1 st 2 nd Scarce Energy/GDP Abundant
Final-to-useful efficiency and GDP, Portugal 1960-2030 30% Final-to-useful efficiency 300 GDP 20% 200 10% 100 0% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Scenarios: Baseline scenario 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Efficient scenario
MEET2030: the process
Building Scenarios for the Future of the Portuguese Economy 1st Workshop Analysis of the 1st challenge 1st Challenge 2nd Workshop Analysis of the 2nd workshop results 2nd Challenge 3rd Workshop Report publication Analysis of 3rd workshop results 4th Workshop Report presentation
1 st Workshop and 1 st Challenge 1st Workshop Analysis of the 1st challenge 1st Challenge 2nd Workshop Analysis of the 2nd workshop results 2nd Challenge 3rd Workshop Report publication Analysis of 3rd workshop results 4th Workshop Report presentation
Key Uncertainties and configurations CONFIG. 1 UNCERTAINTY 1 CONFIG. 1 Importance/Relevance (strong potential impact) to the FOCAL ISSUE High Level of Uncertainty Independence» They are critical drivers for understanding the future dynamics of the focus. They have a high level of uncertainty. They are the basis for the development of Scenarios.» The Key Uncertainties define the dynamics that must be monitored and towards which it is crucial to find answers.» Criteria for the configurations of the key uncertainties: plausible, contrasted, challenging
1 st Workshop and 1 st Challenge Participants were asked to: 1) Identify possible normative options aligned with the 4 th industrial revolution 2) Generate 3 potential key uncertainties affecting those normative options. For each uncertainty, generate 2 plausible, contrasted and challenging configurations; 3) Identify evidence / (deep/explicative) causes for each configuration of the uncertainties.
1 st Workshop and 1 st Challenge Results: 19 115 Companies answered Potential uncertainties were identified by participants 33
Analysis of the 1 st Challenge 1st Workshop Analysis of the 1st challenge 1st Challenge 2nd Workshop Analysis of the 2nd workshop results 2nd Challenge 3rd Workshop Report publication Analysis of 3rd workshop results 4th Workshop Report presentation
Analysis of the 1 st Challenge 115 Initial Potential uncertainties were identified by participants 86 Potential uncertainties were obtained after analysis by the evaluation team Mobility and transport National politics Geopolitics Economy Employment Climate change Industry Circular economy / wastes AI, Robotics IoT, connectivity, digitalisation Energy efficiency in buildings Energy supply 12 Themes 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425 35 Tipology A
Analysis of the 1 st Challenge 115 Initial Potential uncertainties were identified by participants Topics: Funding availability; Price evolution Economy & Financing 27% Technology 17% Knowledge/ human and social capital 1% Environment 4% 86 Potential uncertainties were obtained after analysis by the evaluation team Topics: Which regulation will be in place?; Policy effectiveness Regulation/ policy 25% Cooperation and behaviour (industry/ societal) 26% Topics like: Social acceptance, industrial cooperation 36 Tipology B
2 nd Workshop 1st Workshop Analysis of the 1st challenge 1st Challenge 2nd Workshop Analysis of the 2nd workshop results 2nd Challenge 3rd Workshop Report publication Analysis of 3rd workshop results 4th Workshop Report presentation
2 nd Workshop The Wall of Uncertainties 86 Potential uncertainties were obtained after analysis by the evaluation team 12 Themes 38
2 nd Workshop Participants had to discuss, validate and change the uncertainties and their configurations Results: 58 potential uncertainties out of 86 by merging or eliminating some uncertainties and creating 3 new uncertainties
2 nd Workshop The 58 resulting uncertainties were evaluated in terms of: a. Their perceived impact on the future of the Portuguese Economy b. Their perceived level of uncertainty
1,40 Allowing/ promoting geological CCS/ CCU and use of CO2 EU economic growth capacity Impact 1,30 Effectiveness of more ambitious regulation on energy efficiency in buildings Investment capacity in the Portuguese economy Sectoral & Cross-sectoral cooperation in climate O papel da eficiência energética no protection 1,20 1,10 1,00 0,90 0,80 0,70 Banking system supporting development crescimento das economias Stability of climate change policy policies worldwide: actors, programs and priorities Market preparedness for industry sinergies Tiago Domingos* The political future of the EU Financial sustainability of the Portuguese economy Stability of international geopolitic and demographic context Portugal's capacity to attract and retain talents Alignment between Government's policies and companies' needs to address new societal's needs Pace of adoption of energy efficiency technologies and Capacity to develop a measures including digitalisation policy sustained microgeneration in a strong commitment from the industry, looking into taking Portugal to the leadership on digitalisation and connectivity 0,60 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 1,80 Uncertainty
2 nd Workshop 1,40 1,30 1,20 1,10 Impact 1,00 0,90 0,80 0,70 Effectiveness of more ambitious regulation on energy efficiency in buildings Stability of climate change policy policies worldwide: actors, programs and priorities Allowing/ promoting geological CCS/ CCU and use of CO2 Investment capacity in the Portuguese economy Sectoral & Cross-sectoral cooperation in climate protection Banking system supporting development Market preparedness for industry sinergies The political future of the EU EU economic growth capacity Financial sustainability of the Portuguese economy Stability of international geopolitic and demographic context Portugal's capacity to attract and retain talents Alignment between Government's policies and companies' needs to address new societal's needs Pace of adoption of energy efficiency technologies and Capacity to develop a measures including digitalisation policy sustained microgeneration in a strong commitment from the industry, looking into taking Portugal to the leadership on digitalisation and connectivity 0,60 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 1,80 Uncertainty 16 uncertainties stood out. From the following themes: IoT, connectivity and digitalisation Energy efficiency in buildings (including industrial buildings) Circular economy Climate change Economy Geopolitics National politics
2 nd Workshop 16 Uncertainties Iot, Connectivity, Digitalisation Capacity to develop a digitalisation policy sustained in a strong commitment from the industry, looking into taking Portugal to the leadership on digitalisation and connectivity Energy Efficiency in buildings (incl. industrial buildings) Effectiveness of more ambitious regulation on energy efficiency in buildings Pace of adoption of energy efficient technologies and processes, including microgeneration Circular economy Market preparedness for industry synergies Climate change Sectoral & cross-sectoral cooperation towards climate protection Allowing/ promoting geological CCS, CCU and use of CO 2
2 nd Workshop 16 Uncertainties Economy EU economic growth capacity Banking system supporting development Financial sustainability of the Portuguese economy Investment capacity in the Portuguese economy Portugal's capacity to attract and retain talents Alignment between Government's policies and companies' needs to address new societal needs Geopolitics Stability of climate change policy policies worldwide: actors, programs and priorities Stability of international geopolitical and demographic context The political future of the EU National Politics Effectiveness of national policies on retirement, health, justice, education
Analysis of the 2 nd Workshop Results 1st Workshop Analysis of the 1st challenge 1st Challenge 2nd Workshop Analysis of the 2nd workshop results 2nd Challenge 3rd Workshop Report publication Analysis of 3rd workshop results 4th Workshop Report presentation
Analysis of the 2 nd Workshop Results 16 uncertainties that stood out Additional 9 uncertainties were recovered due to their link to Meet2030 s Focal Issue: Energy supply (2) Mobility and Transport (2) Employment (3) Climate change (2) Strength of EU regulation and incentives inducing renewable energy production European electric grid integration Electrical vehicle (EV&H2) deployment rates Electric grid ability to integrate electric vehicles Impacts of automation and digitalisation on unemployment rates Impacts of automation and digitalisation on the type of employment Adaptability of the education system to the future industries and market needs Availability of technologies for climate mitigation and adaptation Policy on climate change
Analysis of the 2 nd Workshop Results A total of 25 uncertainties will be further analysed Backbone of the scenarios for the future of the Portuguese economy
2 nd Challenge and Analysis Where we are 1st Workshop Analysis of the 1st challenge 1st Challenge 2nd Workshop Analysis of the 2nd workshop results 2nd Challenge and analysis 3rd Workshop Report publication Analysis of 3rd workshop results 4th Workshop Report presentation
2 nd Challenge and Analysis Where we are Companies were provided with a list of 19 types of technologies resulting from the analysis of the 1st Challenge and the team s research In the 2 nd Challenge, a set of questions were sent to companies: Q1 What are all the outputs (that have an economic value) of your company? Q2 - Which is(are) the societal service(s) that your company is contributing to? Q3 For each technology used in your company, identify its energy carrier and its end-use Q4 - Identify at least 3 technologies that would allow your company to: 1. use energy & material wastes and/or 2. decrease energy consumption and/or 3. use more renewable energy and/or 4. decrease CO2 emissions.
2 nd Challenge Where we are! Q5 Identify at least 2 technologies that would allow your company to decrease the materials & energy consumption or CO2 emissions in society (outside your current business) using your core skills. Q6 In the past, what were the technologies that have deeply transformed your sector? How? Q7 - In the future, what are the technologies that might transform your sector (the more disruptive, the better)? How? We are currently analysing companies responses to the Challenge
What s next? - 3 rd Workshop 1st Workshop Analysis of the 1st challenge 1st Challenge 2nd Workshop Analysis of the 2nd workshop results 2nd Challenge 3rd Workshop Report publication Analysis of 3rd workshop results 4th Workshop Report presentation
What s next? - 3 rd Workshop The 3rd Workshop will take place on June 6 th to discuss the preliminary names and narratives of the scenarios and the assumptions behind the quantitative aspects of the scenarios
A challenge for the audience
1. Market preparedness for industry synergies 2. Sectoral & Cross-sectoral cooperation in climate protection 3. Stability of international geopolitical and demographic context 4. The political future of the EU 5. EU economic growth capacity 6. Capacity of the banking system to support economic development 7. Financial stability of the Portuguese economy 8. Investment capacity in the Portuguese economy 9. Portugal's capacity to attract and retain talents 10. European electric grid integration 11. Strength of EU regulation and incentives inducing renewable energy production 12. Capacity to develop a digitalisation policy sustained in a strong commitment from the industry 13. Effectiveness of more ambitious regulation on energy efficiency in buildings 14. Adaptability of the educational system to the future industries and market needs 15. Policy on climate change (ambition) 16. Allowing/ promoting geological CCS, CCU and use of CO 2 17. Alignment between Government's policies and companies' needs to address new societal challenges 18. Effectiveness of national policies on retirement, health, justice, education 19. Stability of climate change policies worldwide: actors, programs and priorities 20. Impacts of automation and digitalisation on unemployment rates 21. Impacts of automation and digitalisation on the type of employment 22. Availability of technologies for climate mitigation and adaptation 23. Electrical vehicle (EV&H 2 ) deployment rates 24. Electric grid ability to integrate electrical vehicles 25. Pace of adoption of energy efficiency technologies and measures and microgeneration
1. Market preparedness for industry synergies 2. Sectoral & Cross-sectoral cooperation in climate protection 3. Stability of international geopolitical and demographic context 4. The political future of the EU 5. EU economic growth capacity 6. Banking system supporting development 7. Financial sustainability of the Portuguese economy 1. Pick one of the drivers 8. Investment capacity in the Portuguese economy 9. Portugal's capacity to attract and retain talents 10. European electric grid integration 11. Strength of EU regulation and incentives inducing renewable energy production 16. Allowing/ promoting geological CCS, CCU and use of CO2 12. Capacity to develop a digitalisation policy sustained in a strong commitment from the industry 17. Alignment between Government's policies and companies' needs to address new societal needs 13. Effectiveness of more ambitious regulation on energy efficiency in buildings 18. Effectiveness of national policies on retirement, health, justice, education 14. Adaptability of the educational system to the future industries and market needs 2. Write a sentence explaining how the driver might contribute to... the fourth industrial revolution energy efficiency economic growth... carbon neutrality. 19. Stability of climate change policy policies worldwide: actors, programs and priorities 3. Drop that thought in our "Circular Economy of Ideas" basket 15. Policy on climate change 20. Impacts of automation and digitalisation on unemployment rates 21. Impacts of automation and digitalisation on the type of employment 22. Availability of technologies for climate mitigation and adaptation 23. Electrical vehicle (EV&H2) deployment rates 24. Electric grid ability to integrate electrical vehicles 25. Pace of adoption of energy efficiency technologies and measures including microgeneration
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