Presentation To: HRTPO Passenger Rail Task Force HRTPO Norfolk-Richmond Passenger Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecasts Presentation By December 17, 2013 Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc.
COMPASS Forecasting Process Data Requirement Stated Preference Survey Origin- Destination Data Transport Network Trip Matrices Economic Scenarios Base Year Socio- Economics Demand Model Calibration Total Demand Induced Demand Modal Split Base Year Matrix Model System Development Travel Demand Forecasts Forecasting Assumptions Transportation Strategies Travel Demand Model Run Forecast Year Trip Matrices Revenue Analysis Financial Analysis User Benefit Analysis Economic Rent Analysis Evaluation Process 1
Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecast Study Area Zone System Number of State Zones Connecticut 5 Delaware 1 District of Columbia 10 Maryland 70 Massachusetts 7 New Jersey 16 New York 9 North Carolina 43 Pennsylvania 5 Rhode Island 5 Virginia 162 Total Number of Zones 333 PETERSBURG JAMES CITY GLOUCESTER COUNTY WILLIAMSBURG YORK COUNTY NEWPORT NEWS POQUOSON HAMPTON ISLE OF WIGHT NORFOLK PORTSMOUTH VIRGINIA SUFFOLK BEACH CHESAPEAKE 2
Hampton Roads Region Zones Zoom-In WILLIAMSBURG JAMES CITY COUNTY GLOUCESTER COUNTY YORK COUNTY NEWPORT NEWS HAMPTON ROADS ISLE OFWIGHT POQUOSON HAMPTON NORFOLK PORTSMOUTH SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH CHESAPEAKE 3
Sources for Socioeconomic Database U.S. Census Bureau Hampton Roads Planning District Commission Richmond Regional Planning District Commission Crater Planning District Commission Virginia Employment Commission Metropolitan Washington County of Governments Baltimore Metropolitan Council Bureau of Economic Analysis Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. 4
Socioeconomic Growth Projection for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte 5
Attributes Included in COMPASS Transportation Networks Time Costs Schedule Public Modes In-Vehicle Time Access/Egress Time Transfer Time Wait Time Fare Access/Egress Costs Parking Cost Service Frequency Auto Travel Time Congestion Delay Operating Costs* Tolls* Parking Costs* * Divided by occupancy 6
Sources of Transportation Networks Transportation networks were based on: State and Local Departments of Transportation highway databases National Highway System (NHS) database Amtrak schedules Airline schedules The ten percent sample of airline tickets Greyhound schedules Megabus schedules 7
COMPASS Networks The COMPASS Networks include the following networks from Charlotte, NC to Boston, MA (including the Hampton Roads area, Richmond, VA, Washington, DC, and New York, NY): Intercity Highway Passenger Rail Air Intercity Bus 8
Sources of Base Year Trip Database The Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) Air Ticket Database T-100 Air Market and Segment Database Greyhound and Megabus Schedules Previous travel origin-destination surveys State department of transportation (Virginia, Maryland, Washington, DC, North Carolina, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts) highway traffic volume Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) data Amtrak passenger rail ridership data Amtrak station volume data TEMS 2012 Virginia Travel Survey 9
Base Year 2012 Annual Intercity Travel Market for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Person Trips by Mode (million) Travel Market Share by Mode Total Base Year 2012 Annual Person Trips: 58.97 Million 10
Values of Time, Frequency, and Access Time VOT (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Car Rail Business $44.45 $11.07 $19.42 $22.51 Commuter - $7.15 $14.80 $18.80 Social $31.76 $8.54 $16.88 $17.88 VOF (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Rail Business $28.81 $7.33 $18.58 Commuter $6.50 $13.67 Social $26.28 $7.75 $16.13 VOA (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Rail Business $62.91 - $42.73 Commuter - $8.89 $29.15 Social $47.94 $10.77 $37.66 Intercity value of time is larger than intraurban value of time due to longer trip length, this explains why commuters have lower value of time, which have more intraurban trips than other trip purposes 11
Future Crude Oil Price Projections * EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/ 12
Future Gasoline Price Projections * EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/ 13
Automobile Highway Fuel Efficiency Projections Estimated based on Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Center for Transportation Analysis (CTA) historical automobile highway energy intensities data 14
Gasoline Price Projections Adjusted by Fuel Efficiency Improvement * EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/ 15
Highway Congestion Estimates Corridor Highway Travel Time Projection 2025 Estimated 2012 Travel Time Travel Time Norfolk, VA - Richmond, VA 1Hour 40Min 1Hour 55Min Norfolk, VA - Petersburg, VA 1Hour 35Min 1Hour 43Min 16
COMPASS Hierarchical Travel Demand Model Structure Total Demand Public Modes Auto LEVEL 4 Air Surface Modes LEVEL 3 Rail Bus LEVEL 2 Southside/Norfolk Route Peninsula Route LEVEL 1 17
Travel Utility Estimation Process Step 1: Compute Utilities for Rail and Bus Rail Southside/Norfolk Route: U = α + β Rail South Rail South Rail South GC Rail South Rail Peninsula Route: U = β Rail Peninsula Rail Peninsula GC Rail Peninsula Step 2: Compute Utilities for Rail and Bus Rail: U = α + β Ln U ) + exp( U Rail Rail Rail [exp( Rail South Rail Peninsula )] Bus: U Bus = β Bus GC Bus Step 3: Compute Utilities for Surface and Air Surface: U = α + β Ln[exp( U ) + exp( U Surface Surface Surface Rail Bus )] Air: U Air = β Air GC Air Step 4: Compute Utilities for Public and Auto Public: U = α + β Ln[exp( U ) + exp( U Public Public Public Surface Air )] Auto: U Auto = β Auto GC Auto Step 5: Compute Total Utility Total: U = Ln[exp( U ) + exp( U Total Auto Public )] Reference: Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand, Moshe Ben-Akiva and Steven R. Lerman, The MIT Press 1987 18
Study Area Travel Market Forecast Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Average annual travel demand growth: 0.9% 19
130 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Ridership Forecast- Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct Southside/Norfolk Route has 13 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips 20
220 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Ridership Forecast- Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct Southside/Norfolk Route has 22 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips 21
130 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Revenue Forecast- Annual Revenue for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct Southside/Norfolk Route has 13 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips Only revenues within the Hampton Roads-Washington Corridor are included 22
220 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Revenue Forecast- Annual Revenue for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct Southside/Norfolk Route has 22 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips Only revenues within the Hampton Roads-Washington Corridor are included 23
Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast Southern Option 1 via Petersburg 2025 130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR 24
Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast Northern Option 2 via Hopewell 2025 130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR 25
Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast Option 3 Richmond Direct 2025 130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR 26
Sources of HSR Trips- Southern Option 1 via Petersburg 2025 130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR Natural Growth refers to changes in travel demand related to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand Induced Demand refers to changes in travel demand related to improvements in a transportation system, as opposed to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand 27
Sources of HSR Trips- Northern Option 2 via Hopewell 2025 130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR Natural Growth refers to changes in travel demand related to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand Induced Demand refers to changes in travel demand related to improvements in a transportation system, as opposed to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand 28
Sources of HSR Trips- Option 3 Richmond Direct 2025 130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR Natural Growth refers to changes in travel demand related to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand Induced Demand refers to changes in travel demand related to improvements in a transportation system, as opposed to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand 29
2025 Annual Station Volumes 130 MPH Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct 30
2025 Annual Station Volumes 220 MPH Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct 31
2025 Annual Segment Loadings 130 MPH Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct 32
2025 Annual Segment Loadings 220 MPH Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct 33
Comparison to AECOM 2009 Study Option 1 Time Daily Round Trips 2025 Annual Hampton Road- Based Rail Trips (million) 2025 Annual Hampton Road- Based Rail Revenue (million $) AECOM Option 1 90 MPH 1:35 6 1.11 $69.12 TEMS Southern Option via Petersburg Assuming AECOM Option 1 Levels of Service 1:35 6 1.16 $76.7 Source: Richmond/Hampton Roads Passenger Rail Project Alternative Analysis and Tier 1 Environmental Impact Statement by AECOM, 2009 34
Contribution of Service and Market Factors to TEMS Forecast of 2025 Annual Rail Trips 35
Apples-to-Apples Comparison to Amtrak NEC Master Plan and Next-Gen HSR (Internal Intercity Trips Only) 2025 Hampton Roads- Washington Corridor - 130 MPH 2025 Hampton Roads- Washington Corridor - 220 MPH 2030 NEC Master Plan (Constrained Acela) 2030 NEC Next-Gen HSR (220 MPH) 2030 NEC Master Plan 2030 NEC NYC-DC Next-Gen Corridor HSR NYC-DC (Constrained Corridor (220 Acela) MPH) Rail Trip Rate (trips per 10,000 person per day) 6.83 10.29 14.18 16.64 18.86 22.19 36
Appendix 37
Stated Preference Survey Deployment TEMS conducted the stated preference survey in order to Update Value of Time (VOT), Value of Frequency (VOF), and Value of Access/Egress (VOA) in the study area Update the modal choice model and total demand model for the passenger rail ridership and revenue forecasts On-Site Survey Team Actual Deployment & Online Survey 38
Stated Preference Survey Counts Actual Survey Counts Location Field & Online Count (Actual) DMV 1,377 TOTAL of VOT s, VOF s & VOA s for all modes = 3,792 Airport 573 Amtrak 690 Bus 96 TOTAL 2,736 39
VOT Calculation Results 40
VOF Calculation Results 41
VOA Calculation Results 42
Thank You 43