An Evaluation of the Correlation Between Shale Gas Development and Ozone Pollution Within the Barnett Shale Region Mahdi Ahmadi and Kuruvilla John Department of Mechanical and Energy Engineering University of North Texas Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4 5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 1
Presentation Outline Air Emissions of Fracking Activities Barnett Shale Trends of Air Pollution in DFW Area Meteorologically Adjusted Ozone Trends Conclusion Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 2
Air Emission of HF More accessible and cheaper natural gas can lower SO 2, black carbon, and mercury in power plants Less CO 2 from burning, but more CH 4 (12.4 times stronger GHG) from production and transmission Other emissions from extensive unconventional activities in production Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 3
Air Emission of HF Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 4
Air Emission of HF Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 5
Air Emission of HF Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 6
Air Emission of HF Criteria air pollutants directly emitted by HF activities: NO X Criteria air pollutants in directly resulted from HF air emissions: Ozone (O 3 ), Particulate Matter (PM) Cumulative impact of HF on air quality needs to be investigated in various temporal and spatial scales. Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 7
Barnett Shale One of the most productive plays in the US. Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 8
Barnett Shale Total number of gas wells: At the end of 2007: 5720 wells At the end of 2013: 17,494 wells Rate: 713 wells/year (between 2000 2006), and 1682 wells/year (2007 2013) 6,000 Barnett Shale Gas Production 20,000 Barnett Shale Well Count 4,500 3,000 1,500 0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Million Cubic Feet Per Day 2007 2009 2011 2013 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 9
Ozone Trends Raw ozone time series and Design Value in Denton Airport South (C56) station (NAAQS current limit: 85 ppb) 140 Measured Design Value 120 100 Ozone (ppb) 80 60 40 20 0 95 98 01 04 Year 06 09 12 14 Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 10
NO X Trends Raw NO X time series and Design Value in Denton Airport South (C56) station 250 Measured 0.98th Percentile 200 NOx (ppb) 150 100 50 0 97 98 99 01 02 04 05 06 08 09 10 12 13 14 Year Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 11
NO 2 Trends Raw NO 2 time series and Design Value in Denton Airport South (C56) station (NAAQS current limit: 100 ppb) 60 Measured Design Value 50 40 NO2 (ppb) 30 20 10 0 97 99 02 05 08 10 13 Year Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 12
PM 2.5 Trends Acceptable PM 2.5 time series and 24 Hr Design Value in Denton Airport South (C56) station (NAAQS current limit: 35 μg/m 3 ) PM2.5 (μg/m 3 ) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Measured 24 Hr Design Value 98 99 01 02 04 05 06 08 09 10 12 13 14 Year Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 13
The Research Study objective: Study area: Study period: Air quality data: Number of air quality monitoring sites: Method: Evaluate the meteorologically adjusted trends in the measured ozone concentrations in north Texas North Texas region including DFW metroplex 1997 2014 (12 17 years worth of data) Ozone and meteorological parameters 16 CAMS operated by TCEQ Statistical analysis of meteorologically adjusted ozone trend using KZ filtering method Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 14 14
Monitoring Sites CAMS # Name County Parameters No. of wells 10 mi C76 Parker County Parker O 3, SR, T, W 158 C73 Granbury Hood O 3, SR, T, W 428 C75 Eagle Mountain Tarrant O 3, SR, T, W 2723 C77 Cleburne Airport Johnson O 3, SR, T, W 1474 C13 Ft. Worth Northwest Tarrant O 3, SR, T, RH, W 1092 C17 Keller Tarrant O 3, SR, T, W 1364 C56 Denton Municipal Airport Denton O 3, SR, T, RH, W 1362 C61 Arlington Muni. Airport Tarrant O 3, SR, T, W 862 C70 Grapevine Fairway Tarrant O 3, SR, T, RH, W 299 C402 Dallas Executive Airport Dallas O 3, T, W 1 C60 Dallas Hinton St. Dallas O 3, SR, T, RH, W 2 C63 Dallas North No. 2 Dallas O 3, SR, T, W 2 C31 Frisco Collin O 3, SR, T, W 0 C69 Rockwall Heat Rockwall O 3, SR, T, W 0 C71 Kaufman Kaufman O 3, SR, T, RH, W 0 C1006 Greenville Hunt O 3, SR, T, W 0 Hydraulic Fracturing zone (HFZ) Nonhydraulic fracturing zone (NHFZ) Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 15
Meteorologically Adjusted Ozone Step 1: Spectral decomposition on ozone and meteorological time series by applying KZ filter Step 2: (baseline and short term component of) Ozone time series is calculated by a three variable linear regression (temperature and solar radiation as surrogates) Step 3: Meteorologically adjusted ozone time series is calculated as the residuals of linear regressions,,,,, Step 4: KZ filter is applied again to M.A. ozone time series to calculate long term and baseline components of M.A. ozone Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 16 16
Meteorologically Adjusted Ozone Statistical evaluation of trends of meteorologically adjusted (M.A.) ozone Construction of M.A. ozone: application of Kolmogorov Zurbenko (KZ) filter M.A. ozone trends: statistical evaluation of total, longterm, and baseline M.A. ozone Evaluations performed for the HFZ and NHFZ regions over two contiguous periods: 2000 2006 (B07) and 2007 2013 (A07) Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 17 17
Method KZ filter KZ filter is a robust low pass filter used for spectral (frequency based) decomposition of time series * Computationally KZ filter is a simple iterative moving average technique 1 Long-term Spectral decomposition (KZfilter) Seasonal (Log transformed) raw ozone time series Short-term * Rao ST, Zurbenko IG. Detecting and tracking changes in ozone air quality. Air & waste 1994; 44: 1089 1092. Rao ST, Zalewsky E, Zurbenko IG. Determining temporal and spatial variations in ozone air quality. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 1995; 45: 57 61. Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 18 18
Results Because all expressions are given for the natural logarithm of raw ozone data, M.A. ozone values have multiplicative effects in original ozone time series Also since O M.A. values are sufficiently small therefore: exp.. 1.. Therefore 100 values represent change in mean value of the original ozone time series Statistical evaluation of all components of M.A. ozone (mean value, longterm, short term, and baseline) is performed to evaluate the contribution of non meteorological variables including anthropogenic influences affecting ozone formation and destruction. Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 19 19
Results M.A. Ozone Examples of calculated and measure ozone time series and residuals (M.A. ozone) 5 4.5 Measured Calculated Log of ozone (ppb) 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 0.05 0.03 Long term component Mean value 1.5 1 2001 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 1 M.A. ozone Baseline of M.A. ozone M.A. ozone 0.01 0.01 0.5 M.A. ozone 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2001 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 Year After the second application of KZ filter Constructed M.A. ozone at Keller (C17) station Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 20 20 0.03 0.05 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Year
Results Wind Pattern Wind rose for CAMS 13 (Ft. Worth Northwest) (May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep) Frequency (percent) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 W NW SW N S NE SE Wind speed (mph) >= 10 8 10 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 E Frequency (percent) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 W NW SW N S NE SE Wind speed (mph) >= 10 8 10 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 E B07 (2000 2006) A07 (2007 2013) Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 21 21
Results Wind Pattern Wind rose at CAMS 60 (Dallas, Hinton St.) (May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep) Frequency (percent) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 W NW SW N S NE SE Wind speed (mph) >= 10 8 10 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 E Frequency (percent) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 W NW SW N S NE SE Wind speed (mph) >= 10 8 10 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 E B07 (2000 2006) A07 (2007 2013) Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 22 22
Results Trend of annual mean values of M.A. ozone in HF zone and non HF zone 12% 9% HFZ NHFZ 6% Average M.A. ozone 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% -12% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 23 23
Results Trend of long term component of M.A. ozone in HF zone and non HF zone 6% 4% HFZ NHFZ Long-term component of M.A. Ozone 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 24 24
Remarks Shale gas exploration and production activities have increased since 2001 and quite significantly since 2007 (ERG, Forecasting Oil and Gas Activity, 2012) Daily vehicle miles travelled (VMT) is relatively flat during 2007 2010. Source: TxDOT (Total VMT for Dallas, Denton, Wise, Tarrant, Hood, Parker, Hunt, Ellis, Collin, Rockwall, & Kaufman counties) Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 25 25
Remarks Based on the mean value of M.A. ozone there is approximately 8% more increase within the fracking region since 2008 when compared to the non fracking region Based on the mean value of long term M.A. ozone there is 2% more increase within the fracking region since 2008 when compared to the non fracking region There is no significant change in Vehicle Mile Traveled between 2007 and 2011 Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 26 26
Thank You! Questions? Mahdi Ahmadi: Mahdi.Ahmadi@unt.edu Dr. Kuruvilla John: Kuruvilla.John@unt.edu Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, 2014. Lubbock, TX. 27