Un mundo sin petróleo? Mariano Marzo (Facultat de Geologia, UB) ATEQ 11-5-2006, Tarragona
Energy use grows with economic development GE=GE
Energy use grows with economic development GE=GE
The hydrocarbon s man
World total primary energy supply by fuel **Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, heat, etc.
World oil consumption by sector *Other sectors comprises agriculture, commercial & public service, residential and non-specified.
World primary energy demand by fuel Their share in total demand will increase from 80% to 82% IEA, WEO 2004 Fossil fuels will continue to dominate global energy use. They will account for around 85% of the increase in world primary demand.
Transport oil demand and GDP, 1971-2030 IEA,WEO 2004
Regional shares in world primary energy demand Two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand will come from developing countries By 2030, they will account for almost half of total demand, in line with their more rapid economic and population growth. IEA, WEO 2004
Basically since we have futures markets in oil, the expectations on long term price of oil were extraordinarily stable - at around 20$/bl. That meant that, at all times, and whatever the actual spot price was, oil prices were expected to come back (upwards, or downwards, depending on where it would be then) to that level. The view of the market on future prices of oil has changed in the past 2 years. The market expects oil prices to still be around 6070$/bl 5 years from now, and not to drift down to 20$/bl or somewhere in between. 11-S Irak War
Downstream and upstream problems Producción Exploración Transporte Precio EL CÍRCULO DEL MERCADO DEL PETRÓLEO Demanda "Stock" de productos Refineria.
Upstream: the visible part of the iceberg
Declining discoveries Rising finding & development costs
Cumulative oil and gas discoveries and new wildcat wells drilled, 1963-2002 World Energy Outlook 2004
A growing gap
New discoveries UK North Sea: more difficult, less prolific, more expensive
Depletion
AIE: Decline rates range from 5% to 11% per year. By 2030, most oil production worldwide will come from capacity that is yet to be built World Energy Outlook 2004
The 3 terms of the equation New production, Type 3 depletion and demand 4 3.4 3.5 milliion b/d 3 2.7 2.5 2 1.5 1 2.9 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.5 1 1 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.61.6 1.6 0.6 0.5 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 year 2008 2009 2010
The price to pay: Trillions (1012) US $ Rising dependency from Middle East Risk of supply disruptions
2000-2030: 3x1012 US $ (E & P 70%) 105.000 x 106 per year / 287,7 x 106 per day World Energy Outlook 2004
Major net inter-regional oil trade flows (mb/d) WEO 2004
Choke points WEO 2004
Geopolitical uncertainties
Higher prices = more discoveries? Longwell,H.J., CEO ExxonMobil, 2002
The key is access to new areas
Reserves: IOC s vs NOC s
Chinese and Indian NOC s
The submerged part of the iceberg: peak oil
Pessimists ( Hubbertites )
Optimists ( Cornucopias ) Annual Production Scenarios for the Mean Resource Estimate and Different Growth Rates (Decline R/P = 10) 70 USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery 2030 @ 3% Growth Billion Barrels per Year 60 50 40 Ultimate Recovery Probability BBls ---------------------------Low (95 %) 2,248 Mean (expected value) 3,003 High (5 %) 3,896 2037 @ 2% Growth 2050 @ 1% Growth 30 20 10 0 1900 Decline R/P = 10 History Mean 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125
USGS (95%, 50% and 5%) vs the rest Published Estimates of World Oil Ultimate Recovery USGS 5% 2000 USGS Mean 2000 USGS 95% 2000 Campbell 1995 Masters 1994 Campbell 1992 Bookout 1989 Masters 1987 Martin 1984 Nehring 1982 Halbouty 1981 Meyerhoff 1979 Nehring 1978 Nelson 1977 Folinsbee 1976 Adams & Kirby 1975 Linden 1973 Moody 1972 Moody 1970 Shell 1968 Weeks 1959 MacNaughton 1953 Weeks 1948 Pratt 1942 0 0.5 Source: USGS and Colin Campbell 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Trillions of Barrels EIA 2004 4
SCIENCE, 18 NOVEMBER 2005, VOL 310
In ads that Chevron has been running in major newspapers and magazines, we are told that we the world is using two barrels for every one it finds. "One thing is clear: the era of easy oil is over," say the ads.
J. Herolds: big oil & peak oil Total: 2007 ExxonMobil, BP & Shell: 2008 Chevron:2009 Big oil: no comment
ExxonMobil's own production statistics
The world needs a new energy transition. This, if ever, could take decades What can be done in the meanwhile?
PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader Roger Bezdek, MISI Robert Wendling, MISI February 2005
CONCLUSIONS The future of global oil supply: plenty of challenges and uncertainties No agreement on available resources and reserves No agreement on the date of peak oil (2007-2030?) Increasing dependence from Middle East and OPEC Geopolitics: the new great game Trillions in investments (70% E&P) High-risk of temporary supply disruptions Tight supply/demand Price volatility The era of cheap and easy oil is over A new situation that along with global warming demands a new energetic model
Fasten your seat belts! We are entering the second half of the age of oil mariano.marzo@ub.edu