Transport Outlook 2012 Plenary 2: Towards a Green Economy (and CO 2 ) in 2050 ITF Transport Outlook International Transport Forum Perspective on Mobility Transforming Transportation Philippe LeRouic Crist, Kurt Van Dender International Transport Forum International Expert Meeting United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Transport Division 24 April 2012 Washington DC 26 January 2012
2 Themes.01 Drivers.02 Results.03 Insights.04 Next? What will drive mobility? What scenarios bind the future? What can we say from the Outlook? Closing words
3.01 drivers 2050: Global needs must be reconciled Key challenges on the way to a world of 9 billion people in 2050 Economic prosperity and development Equity Safety and health Energy Environmental quality and climate
4.01 drivers 2050: Drivers of mobility GDP growth continued but re-balanced Population growth strong but differentiated Cities becoming even more important Motorisation growing in non-oecd countries pattern? Energy Prices are uncertain but likely increasing and volatile (taxes?)
5.02 Results 2050: Results Growth in mobility (hardly) un-abated by 2050 OECD passenger volumes 10%-50% higher, non OECD 2.4-3.6 times more Growth in CO 2 emissions less than mobility x 1.5 to 2.4 times 2010 globally Prices matter: (high) Oil, fuel and km charging depress mobility
6.03 Insights 2050: Insights Need for better balanced mobility eclectic transport Mobility needs will require (new) infrastructure but competition for capital likely to be stiff prioritisation key Key priorities should focus on high (societal) returns; virtual/physical linking of systems helpful, cities innovation hotbeds Strong de-carbonisation requires uptake of low-carbon technologies
7.04 Next? 2050: Closing Words Diversity-based mobility policy
Seamless Transport: Making Connections 2-4 May 2012 Leipzig, Germany
.02 Expecting Impact of existing and planned Transport CO 2 Policies (Annex 1) -11 Mt 13 years of projected transport emission reductions for this set of countries including all existing and planned policies (2007-2020) Transport CO 2 emissions from this set of countries in 2008 (2627 Mt) Global Transport CO 2 emissions in 2008 (5572 Mt ) Global CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion in 2008 (28348Mt ) Source: UNFCCC National reports, ITF analysis
.03 Wanting Car ownership: Untapped (untappable?) potential 27 10 43 158 9 800 China India USA Indonesia Brazil Pakistan 31 1 206 181 11 319 Nigeria Bangladesh Russia Japan Mexico Philippines 13 1 31 113 92 502 Viet Nam Ethiopia Egypt Germany Iran Turkey 54 108 257 495 462 596 Thailand France UK Italy S. Africa R. of Korea Cars per 1000 people Source: World Bank, UN Statistics
Number of Motor vehicles per 1000 people Source: Wang, 2006 Argonne National Laboratories.03 Wanting Motorisation and income 800 700 600 500 400 US Pattern EU Pattern Asian Pattern Low ownership? 300 200 100 Income (GDP per capita: 1985 USD) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Asia China Japan Korea Europe France Germany UK Spain Belgium Denmark Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Austria Portugal Australia, Canada and USA USA Canada Australia
12.04 Getting Shopping list of policy ingredients Vision for the city and transport Manage transport demand, price it where feasible, build capacity where required Focus on the reliability of transport, not just speed Inform users of conditions in a way that is useful to them Re-think the allocation of city space, manage parking... experiment! Foster mobility entrepreneurship Governance and enforcement must be robust Address the mobility needs of the poor and the periphery
.03 Wanting People want to live in cities 0.5% 50% 70% 2010 2050 70% GDP 60% by 2025 75% 33% slums CO 2 + Source: Living in the endless city