CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT AT A TIME OF CRISIS: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE MENA REGION GIFT-MENA Annual Conference (Marrakesh, 10-12 February 2015) Atsuko Okuda Chief, Governance and Statebuilding Section, ECRI Economic And Social Commission For Western Asia
Table of Content Can we develop capacity at a time of crisis? Monitoring trends: conflicts and crises affect government effectiveness? Governance and public sector reforms in conflict, crisis and transition The way forward
2.50 Worldwide Governance Indicators, ESCWA Average 2.00 1.50 1.00 Voice and Accountability 0.50 0.00-0.50 1996 1998 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism Government Effectiveness Regulatory Quality Rule of Law -1.00 Control of Corruption -1.50-2.00-2.50
Page 4 Regional Risk Characteristics Categories Global ESCWA Gap Overall Evaluation 46 53-7 Security risk 37 52-15 Political stability risk 46 66-20 Government effectiveness risk 60 72-12 Legal & regulatory risk 52 59-7 Macroeconomic risk 37 36 1 Foreign trade & payments risk 39 41-2 Financial risk 49 53-4 Tax policy risk 37 35 2 Labour market risk 51 59-8 Infrastructure risk 51 56-5 Source: Economist Intelligent Unit Country Risk Analysis Calculation by ECRI/ESCWA
Regional Risk Characteristics Overall risk evaluation at the regional level Overall Evaluation 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Global Average ESCWA Average Page 5 Source: Economist Intelligent Unit Country Risk Analysis Analysis by ECRI/ESCWA
Regional Risk Characteristics Security Risks/ Region Global ESCWA Bahrain 100 90 80 Egypt Iraq 70 Yemen 60 50 Jordan 40 West Bank and Gaza 30 20 Kuwait UAE 10 0 Lebanon Overall Evaluation Security risk Tunisia Libya Syria Morocco Page 6 Sudan Oman Saudi Arabia Qatar Source: Economist Intelligent Unit Country Risk Analysis Analysis by ECRI/ESCWA
Regional Risk Characteristics Political Stability Risk/ Regional Global ESCWA Bahrain 90 80 70 Egypt Iraq Yemen 60 50 Jordan 40 West Bank and Gaza 30 20 Kuwait UAE 10 0 Lebanon Overall Evaluation Political stability risk Tunisia Libya Syria Morocco Page 7 Sudan Oman Saudi Arabia Qatar Source: Economist Intelligent Unit Country Risk Analysis Analysis by ECRI/ESCWA
Regional Risk Characteristics Government Effectiveness Risk/ Region Global ESCWA Bahrain 100 90 80 Egypt Iraq 70 Yemen 60 50 Jordan 40 West Bank and Gaza 30 20 Kuwait UAE 10 0 Lebanon Overall Evaluation Government effectiveness risk Tunisia Libya Syria Morocco Page 8 Sudan Oman Saudi Arabia Qatar Source: Economist Intelligent Unit Country Risk Analysis Analysis by ECRI/ESCWA
Additional factors for consideration: falling oil price and budgetary implication of instability: the case of Iraq Page 9 UNAMI JAU report Comparative Analysis of Iraq s 2013 Federal Budget and 2014 Draft Budget Bill
New Development Framework of Post 2015 Development Agenda Sustainable Development Goals Rio+20 Follow-ups Open Working Groups Post 2015 Development Agenda and MDG Reviews 17 Sustainable Development Goals Page 10
SDG 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels 16.1: reduce violence and related death rates 16.2 end abuse, exploitation, trafficking and all forms of violence 16.3 promote the rule of law 16.4 reduce illicit financial and arms flows 16.5 substantially reduce corruption and bribery in all its forms 16.6 develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions 16.7 ensure responsive, inclusive, participatory decision-making 16.9 by 2030 provide legal identity for all including birth registration 16.10 ensure public access to information and protect freedoms 16.a strengthen relevant national institutions 16.b promote and enforce non-discriminatory laws and policies for sustainable development Page 11
What it means to governments Public sector capacity development in crisis, conflict and transition Limited budget and reallocation of budgets to address conflict, crisis and emergencies Still expected to meet national and international development goals Focused, evidence-based, prioritized governance and public sector reforms Prioritize and align individual and institutional capacity development to address the requirements Page 12
How to monitor progress in institutional effectiveness Determinant Factors Crisis/Risk Management Development Goals Research, lessons learned and good practice Governance and Public Sector Reforms Partnerships with CSO, academia, private sector, mass media Indicators to measure institutional effectiveness Page 13
The way forward ESCWA s Support to member countries Normative and analytical work (i.e. Arab Governance Report) Governance and institutional development Assisting countries in monitoring progress through projects Technical advisory services Capacity Development Page 14
: Normative and Analytical Work Proposal to enhance institutional development Clear constitutional and human right principles Economic governance and effective service delivery Inclusiveness of transitionrelated reforms Political Stability and Absence of Violence Institutional effectiveness and accountability Page 15
How monitoring can help Identify key challenges in institutional development In the national development plans? Assessing progress towards reforms? SDGs? Improving the capacities of governments, national research institutions, think tanks Build capacity Identify specific areas and modality of collaboration Monitor trends based on selected indicators Progress? Gaps? Areas of Improvements? Consensus on gaps and opportunities Raise public awareness Aligning policies, programmes and budget Page 16 Make informed decisions for better development outcomes
Public Sector Reform in Iraq The Vision & Development Results Chain A capable public sector that enables GoI to assume its roles, manage its resources, and deliver services to citizens efficiently and effectively to achieve sustainable development Public Sector Modernization / Public Administration Reform Enhancement of Machinery of Government & Equilibrium in Governance Pillars Improvement of Service Delivery and Public Satisfaction Enhancement of Socio-Economic indicators and welfare
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