Natural Heritage Areas & Nature-based Tourism & Recreation

Natural Heritage Areas & Nature-based Tourism & Recreation An Adaptive Approach to Management in a Rapidly Changing Climate: Lake Simcoe Case Study Chris Lemieux, Paul Gray, Dan McKenney, Dan Scott, Scott McFarlane

An Adaptive Management Framework Step 1 Establish Baselines: Climate Flora Fauna Step 2 Develop Scenarios for: Climate Socio-economics Step 3 Assess Vulnerability of Natural Assets and Human Society to Climate Change Step 4 Identify and Evaluate Adaptation Options Step 6 Monitor for Change And Adapt as Needed Step 5 Implement Adaptation Options

Lake Simcoe Natural Heritage Estate Natural Heritage Area Designation Management Authority Total Number of Areas Provincial Parks Ontario Parks 6 Conservation Areas Areas of Natural and Scientific Interest Candidate Areas of natural and Scientific Interest Private Lands and Waters Lake Simcoe Conservation Authority Lakes Simcoe Conservation Authority and Ministry of Natural Resources Various (e.g., Nature Conservancy of Canada) 30 27 25 49 Total 137 Total Area (Ha) and % of Watershed 706.2 (0.21%) 911.0 (0.28%) 12,016.8 (3.64%) 5,607.6 (1.70) 3,373.0 (1.02) 22,614.6 (6.85%)

Methods 1. Using GCMS, provide a general sense of the changes in climate projected for several natural heritage areas in the Lake Simcoe Watershed. 2. Use tree species distribution as a proxy to deduce potential representation change in Lake Simcoe watershed natural heritage areas.

Results Current and Projected Future Climate for Sibbald Point Provincial Park Climate Variable Time Period 1971-2000 2010-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100 Mean temperature - annual ( C) 6.5 8.4 9.8 11.5 Mean max. temperature - warmest month ( C) 26.4 29.3 30.5 32.2 Mean min. temperature - coldest month ( C) -13.3-10.8-8.0-5.9 Mean diurnal range ( C) 10.0 9.5 9.3 9.2 Annual temperature range ( C) 34.7 40.2 38.4 38.1 Growing season start - Julian date 107 97 94 8.6 Growing season end - Julian date 318 327 332 338 Growing season length (days) 218 231 239 253 Growing season mean temperature ( C) 10.7 15.0 15.0 16.0 Growing season temperature range ( C) 27.0 30.0 31.0 33.0 Precipitation - annual (mm) 873 882 907 968 Precipitation - warmest quarter (mm) 242 232 232 218 Precipitation - coldest quarter (mm) 193 216 216 260

Results Time Period Species Gain (# of species) Species Loss (# of species) No Change (# of species) Lake Simcoe Watershed Boundary 2020s 15 1 115 2050s 16 13 102 2080s 19 27 85 McRae Point Provincial Park 2020s 13 4 114 2050s 21 10 100 2080s 21 25 85 Sibbald Point Provincial Park 2020s 15 5 111 2050s 15 15 101 2080s 19 29 83 Beaverton Alvar & Wetlands Life Science ANSI 2020s 11 5 115 2050s 10 17 104 2080s 21 26 84 Zephyr Creek Wetlands 2020s 14 5 112 2050s 14 16 101 2080s 19 29 83

Results Presence/Absence (1/0) of Suitable Climate Habitat (Full Range Only) for Selected Tree Species in the Lake Simcoe Watershed Time Period Tree Species 1971-2000 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 Black Spruce 1 1 1 0 White Spruce 1 1 1 0 Balsam Fir 1 1 1 0 Tulip Tree 1 1 1 1 Shagbark Hickory 1 1 1 1 Willow Oak 0 0 1 1 Sugar Maple 1 1 1 1

Example Loss in Representation of Suitable Climate for Black Spruce (1971-2000 vs. 2071-2099)

Example Gain in Representation of Suitable Climate for Willow Oak (1971-2000 vs. 2071-2099)

Consequences Changes in the representation of terrestrial life science, aquatic life science, and earth science features within natural heritage areas. Increased frequency and scale of disturbances such as insect outbreaks; increased frequency and scale of extreme events such as flooding, drought, and wind; and an increase in the distribution and abundance of terrestrial and aquatic invasive species could affect the ecological integrity (ecological health) of natural heritage areas within the Lake Simcoe Watershed. Need to adapt active management objectives within Watershed natural heritage areas (i.e., objectives associated with ecological/shoreline restoration).

Nature-based Tourism & Recreation Natural assets are used by residents, draw hundreds of thousands of visitors every year, and generate millions of dollars for the provincial and local economies. Demand for recreational opportunities will continue to grow. Climate change presents a number of important challenges to planners and managers responsible for the provision of nature-based tourism and recreational opportunities.

Visits to Natural Heritage Areas and Participation in Selected Outdoor Activities in Simcoe County, 2006-2008 Activity Visit to Natural Heritage Area Number of People Visiting or Participating 2006 2007 % Change (2006-2007) 2008 % Change (2007-2008) % Change (2006-2008) 191,000 293,000 +53.4 290,000-1.0 +51.8 Boating 137,000 488,000 +256.2 523,000 +7.2 +281.8 Golfing 244,000 152,000-37.7 190,000 +25.0-22.1 Fishing 141,000 237,000 +68.1 471,000 +98.7 +234.0 Hunting 17,000 11,000-35.3 23,000 +109.1 +35.3 Downhill Skiing or Snowboarding Any Type of Outdoor Sports Activity 71,000 241,000 +239.4 228,000-5.4 +221.1 1,460,000 1,916,000 +31.2 2,126,000 +11.0 45.6

Methods Assessed tourism and recreation vulnerability to climate change in the Lake Simcoe Watershed: 1. Length of the ice fishing season 2. Length of the snowmobiling season 3. Park visitation patterns

Ice Fishing Winter of 1997/98 was the warmest on record in the Great Lakes region (+3.7 C above normal) Lake Simcoe ice fishing season during this winter was on average 52% shorter than the winter of 2000/01 Mean min temperature for 1971-2000 was -13.3 C 2020s: 2.5 C, 2050s: 5.3 C, 2080s: 7.4 C warmer than mean min temp in coldest month

Snowmobiling Time Scott et al. (2002) McBoyle et al. (2007) Gilmour (2009) Snow Cover (15cm) Snow Cover (15cm) Snow Cover (15cm) HadCM3 IS92a CGCM1 IS92a NCARPCM B21 CCSRNIES A11 INMCM3.0 B1 MIROC3.2 A1B 2020s 48 42 39 22 26 12 2050s 38 21 30 1 24 7 2080s 18 12 N/A N/A 23 5

Consequences Climate change-induced changes to ecosystem composition, structure, and function could affect visitor attractions, visitation patterns, the provision of recreational activities and the overall quality of the recreational experience. Need to determine how to manage for climate changeinduced visitor behavioral responses and shifting (and emerging) destination and recreational preferences. Need to ensure visitor safety.

Overview of Policy Delphi Process Iterative group-oriented Idea Generating Strategy (IGS) that seeks to generate the strongest possible opposing views on the potential resolutions of a major policy issue Participants are afforded the freedom to present and challenge alternative viewpoints, and to think reflectively and independently between iterations

Advantages Overcomes limitations of other IGSs, including: one or a few vocal individuals to dominate the discussion people to remain silent, possibly due to shyness or fear of censure the rut effect (i.e., participants getting hung-up on one thought and staying in that rut for the duration of the meeting) the power of persuasion and the bandwagon effect the unwillingness to abandon norms geographic isolation cost

What s Required from You? Commitment to the process Today is just the beginning Two rounds will follow

Guiding Statement Based on the information that has been presented to you and what you know personally about projected climate change impacts for this theme, please identify any adaptation measures that would reduce or eliminate negative impacts or exploit potential beneficial opportunities.

Examples of Questions 1) Increasing Knowledge What types of information and forms of knowledge are required to support robust and flexible decision-making? 2) Strategic Planning What short- and long-term strategic planning is required to support the vision of the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan? 3) Legislation and Policy What types of policies are required to provide for an adaptive approach to decision-making?

Examples of Questions 4) Knowledge Dissemination What types of communication tools and techniques are needed to: 1) enhance public understanding of the climate change impact and (potential) management actions; and, 2) enhance education, extension, and training opportunities within management agencies? 5) Planning and Management What types of land-use planning and adaptive management frameworks are required to mitigate negative impacts and exploit beneficial opportunities associated with known and potential consequences on cultural, social, economic, and ecological systems?

The End Thank You!