Climate Change Negotiations: COP 21, Paris enzo di giulio Università degli Studi di Bergamo, December 3, 2015
4 slides on climate change
CO2 concentration in the last 800,000 years
CO2 concentration in the last 800,000 years and to 2100 Source: IAASA
400 ppm: for having a similar level of concentration we must go back to Pliocene (3-5 million years ago)
Huge decline in the Arctic sea ice extent and tickness
First effects
Huge decline in the Arctic sea ice extent and tickness
Huge decline in the Arctic sea ice extent and tickness
Slow-Motion Collapse of West Antarctic Glaciers is Unstoppable, 2 New Studies Say (NASA, University of Washington)
How to reach the target?
How to reach the target without Flex-Mex? CO 2 = CO 2 /ENE * ENE/GDP * GDP/POP * POP, i.e.: CO 2 = CE * EG * GP * POP Which factors influence the Kaya identity coefficients? Coefficients Determinants Mitigation Policies CE = CO 2 /ENE energy mix renewables, nuclear and natural gas EG = ENE/GDP economy structure, technical effficiency, lifestyles services, dematerialisation efficient technologies, DSM energy saving, etc. GP = GDP/POP socio-economic factors GDP restraint POP culture, economy Population restraint
Areas of action Target: GHGs Mitigation Energy Mix: + Renewables + Nuclear + Natural Gas - Coal - Oil GDP Mitigation Energy Efficiency: + Technical efficiency + energy saving + dematerialisation Population Control Emissions Trading CDM, JI Reforestation Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
Are climate change negotiations working?
Climate and time: drawbacks Very slow negotiations Political dilemma: short run vs long run. Fighting against time Different times for different countries
Climate and time: progress From non legal (Rio) to legal constraint (Kyoto) Many Kyoto open issues issue resolved Progress in LULUCF and CDM New tools and markets arose
A key conference: Copenhagen, 2009
Copenhagen, COP 15: questions Which kind of agrement: Kyoto bis? Political agreement? Constraint just for DCs? USA bounded? And what about developing countries? What about compliance? How to define targets? By negotiation? Algorithms? Flat rate? Diiferentiated flat rates? Fixed or flexible targets? Absolute or relative targets? Per-capita or per-gdp Carbon? Targets to 2020 or 2050? AAUs Banking in post-2012 (8 mld t. CO2)? Souce : The Economist CDM reform: still bottom-up or sectoral approach? Which policy tools? Cap & trade or taxation? Money to developing countries? How much? The US-China link Still delay? Adaptation dominion?
Copenhagen, COP 15: answers The COP plenary takes note of the agreement Temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius Deep cuts in global emissions are required according to science Annex I: individual quantitative targets for 2020 to be submitted by 31/01/2010. Non Annex I: mitigation actions by 31/01/2010 Crucial role of REDD (reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation) USD 30 billion for the period 2010-2012 with balanced allocation between adaptation and mitigation. USD 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries.
Doha 2012, COP 18 Kyoto Protocol still lives since 2013 to 2020 but: within it just EU, Australia, Switzerland, Norway (15% world emissions) out Russia, Canada, Japan and New Zeland the two main emitters (USA e China) are still out (16 and 19% of world emissions) surplus of Russia, Ucraina, Polonia, Kazakstan (13 Gt CO2) tradable up to 2.5% target: at least -18% compared to 1990. by 2015, definition of strategies for cutting 8-13 Gt CO2.
Positive elements in COP 21
Positive elements in COP 21: NDICs
INDCs: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions Paese Target Target Year Reference China GDP carbon intensity: -60/-65% 2030 2005 United States emissions: -26% -28% 2025 2005 European Union emissions: almeno 40% 2030 1990 India GDP carbon intensity: -33-35% 2030 2005 Russia emissions: -25% -30% 2030 1990 Japan emissions: -26% 2030 2013 Brazil emissions: -37% oppure - 43% 2025 or 2030 2005 Indonesia emissions: -29% 2030 Scenario BAU Mexico emissions: -22% -36% 2030 Scenario BAU Iran emissions: -4% - 12% 2030 Scenario BAU Canada emissions: - 30% 2030 2005 South Corea emissions: - 30% 2030 Scenario BAU Australia emissions: -26% -28% 2030 2005 Saudi Arabia emissions: - 130 Mt.CO2 year 2030 South Africa emissions: peak in 2020-2025, ten years plateau, then decreasing 28
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Positive elements in COP 21: policies (EU)
European Union: Roadmap to 2050
European Union: 2020 and 2030 targets
European Union: ETS
European Union: Renewables
European Union: Energy Efficiency
1990 = 100% European Union: effects on decoupling 220 200 180 GDP and GHG decoupling 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 GDP GHG emissions
Positive elements in COP 21: policies (US & China)
USA and China Obama Climate Action Plan: -30% GHGs from power sector in 2030 (vs 2005) US-China agreement (November 11, 2014): US, -26%-28% GHGs in 2025 (vs 2005 it means -16.3% vs. 1990) China: stop emissions increase by 2030 and renewables up to 20%
Positive elements in COP 21: industry & society
Positive elements in COP 21: policy tools
Positive evolution of Carbon Markets Source: WB, State and trends of carbon pricing 2014 43
Positive evolution of Carbon Markets Source: WB, State and trends of carbon pricing 2014 44
Positive evolution of Carbon Markets Source: WB, State and trends of carbon pricing 2014 45
Basic negotiation in COP 21
Two triangles & two dilemmas Legally binding agreement United States Countries Participation Ambitious Targets European Union China 48
2 challenges for climate change
Challenge 1: CO2/GDP vs GDP
400 Mondo (1971-2009): CO2/Pil vs Pil 350 Area OCSE (1971-2009): CO2/Pil vs Pil 350 300 300 250 250 200 150 100 co2 co2/pil pil 200 150 100 co2 co2/pil pil 50 50-1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009-1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 We need economic growth-carbon emissions decoupling 600 Area Non-OCSE (1971-2009): CO2/Pil vs Pil 3 000 Cina (1971-2009): CO2/Pil vs Pil 500 2 500 400 2 000 300 200 co2 co2/pil pil 1 500 1 000 co2 co2/pil pil 100 500 - - 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Obstacles to a strong agreement World Energy Outlook 2013, IEA
Challenge 2: rich vs emerging countries
Obstacles to a strong agreement World Energy Outlook 2012, IEA
Obstacles to a strong agreement World Energy Outlook 2013, IEA
Obstacles to a strong agreement World Energy Outlook 2009, IEA
Fighting against time
IEA, World Energy Outlook 2011
IEA, WEO 2012: GHGs required cuts
IEA, WEO 2012: GHGs cut options
the bridge issue
Energy and Climate Change, IEA 2015 62
Energy and Climate Change, IEA 2015 63
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Energy and Climate Change, IEA 2015 66
Energy and Climate Change, IEA 2015 67
How much does carbon abatement cost?
The Stern Review 69
Global Abatement Cost Curve Source: McKinsey
IEA, WEO 2012: costs Gross Investment = 15 trillion $ (i.e. annually 0.8% World GDP since World GDP = 77 trillion $) World Defense Expenditure: 2.5% World GDP
Gross Investment = 38 trillion $ (i.e. annually 3,2% World GDP since World GDP = 77 trillion $) Energy and Climate Change, IEA 2015 72
Abatement Costs in some models (Target: -40% and -80% in 2050) Source. EMF28 Median Value: 64 /t. CO2 Median Value: 521 /t. CO2
Abatement Costs in some models (Target: -40% and -80% in 2050) Source: EMF28 Median Value: 0.7% GDP Median Value: 3.7% GDP
the discount issue
Vs Nicholas Stern William Nordhaus
STERN (1,4%) NORDHAUS (6%) Source: The ethics of climate change, by J. Broome, Scientific American, 2008
Logical sequence of the lesson How to cut emissions (Kaya) 4 slides on Climate Change The climate negotiations The cost issue Two challenges for climate changes The basic Negotiation in COP 21 The Copenhagen Conference Positive elements in COP 21, Paris (INDCs, Policies, Awareness)
background slide
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IEA, WEO 2012: temperature increase Gross Investment = 15 trillion $ (i.e. annually 0.7% World GDP since World GDP = 84 trillion $,
Obstacles to a strong agreement
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The unburnable issue
Source: Unburnable Carbon Are the world s financial markets carrying a carbon bubble?, carbontracker.org 90
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Source: Unburnable Carbon 2013: Wasted capital and stranded assets, Carbontracker 93
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Silicon PV module: decrease in price Layard et al 2015, The case for a Global Apollo Programme. Voxeu.org 95
Energy and Climate Change, IEA 2015 96
Energy and Climate Change, IEA 2015 97