Emissions Inventory and Modeling P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Presentation for the 12th AIM International Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, February 19-21, 2007
Agenda Energy Overview Emissions Inventory of India AIM Modeling for India Energy Snapshot (ESS) Model Application AIM CGE Model Application LCS Modeling (separate presentation)
Energy Overview
Sector Share in Primary Energy Use 1990 1995 Residential 4% Other 22% Agriculture 3% Transport 23% Total 125.6 Mtoe Industrial 48% Residential 5% Agriculture 5% Other 19% Transport 24% Total 156.4 Mtoe Industrial 47% 2000 Residential 13% Other 10% Total 179.6 Mtoe 2005 Residential 14% Agriculture 4% Other 2% Total 204.2 Mtoe Agriculture 4% Transport 19% Industrial 54% Transport 18% Industrial 62%
Fuel Share in Primary Energy Use 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Coal Gas Oil Hydro Nuclear Renew ables 1990 1995 2000 2005
Fuel-mix Share in Power Generation 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1991 1996 2001 2004 2005 Coal Gas Oil / Gas Biomass Wind Hydel Nuclear
Energy Trade 2005 2000 1995 1990 Oil Imports Oil Exports Coal Exports Coal Imports 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Exports Mtoe Imports
Emissions Inventory Overview
Emission trends for GHG Emissions N20 5% Other 1% N20 4% Other 1% CH4 36% CH4 24% CO2 58% CO2 71% 1990 2005
Sectoral shares of CO2 emissions in India 1990 Others 17% Total 617 Mt Transport 9% Others 5% Total 1193 Mt Transport 14% Power 42% Pow er 55% Industrial 27% Industrial 31% 1990 2005
Sector-wise CO2 emissions for India Sector CO 2 emissions (Mt CO 2 ) 1990 2000 2005 Electricity 261 556 650 Iron and steel 75 76 80 Fertilizer 18 26 15 Cement 19 30 33 Other Industries 54 140 247 Transport 87 100 108 Other Sectors 103 105 60 All India 617 1033 1193
Sector shares in CO2 emissions: India, Other Sectors 17% 1990 Transport 14% Pow er 42% Cement 3% Other Ind. 9% Iron & Steel 12% Fertilizer 3% Pow er Fertilizer Iron & Steel Other Ind. Cement Transport Other Sectors Transport Cement 9% 3% Other Sectors 5% 2004 Other Ind. 21% Pow er 54% Iron & Steel Fertilizer 7% 1% Pow er Fertilizer Iron & Steel Other Ind. Cement Transport Other Sectors
Fuel-wise CO2 emissions 800 780 Gas Oil Coal 669 600 563 431 Mt CO2 400 200 165 213 289 334 0 14 28 39 45 1990 1995 2000 2005
Per Capita CO2 Emission 2005 2000 1995 1990 0.72 0.82 0.98 1.06 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 Mt CO2
District-wise CO2 Emissions Uzbekistan Uzbekistan Tajikistan hanistan Tajikistan hanistan China China Pakistan Pakistan Nepal Nepal Bhutan Bhutan Bangladesh Bangladesh India India Myanmar (B Myanmar (B 2005 1991 Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Maldives Maldives Indonesia Million ton <0 0.01-1.50 1.51-3.00 3.01-7.00 7.01-15.00 15.01-39.29 Indonesia
CO2 emission from Power Sector (2005) Uzbekistan hanistan Tajikistan CO 2 Emissions from Power sector (2005) China Pakistan Nepal India Bhutan Bangladesh Myanmar (Bu Legend CO 2 Emissions (mil. tons) 0.00-1.40 1.41-3.66 3.67-8.67 more than 8.67 Maldives Sri Lanka Indonesia
CO2 emission from Cement Sector (2005) Uzbekistan Tajikistan hanistan CO 2 Emissions from Cement sector (2005) China Pakistan Nepal Bhutan India Legend CO 2 Emissions (mil. tons) 0.00-0.08 0.09-0.23 0.24-0.60 Maldives more than 0.60 Sri Lanka Bangladesh Myanmar (B Indonesia
AIM Modeling for India Energy Snapshot (ESS) Model Application
Scenario Storylines Scenario A: India, where a large part still resides in villages though demographic indicators have changed but still a long improvement to go. The economy dependent largely on the manufacturing sector. Scenario B : India, which policy makers are aspiring for characterized by high growth rates, rapidly improving demographic indicators, driven by economic reforms and high levels of social spending. Higher penetration of technologies and environmental consciousness amongst people.
Population Projections of India 1800 1600 1400 A B Poplation (Million) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Scenario A : As per UN Population Projections Scenario B : Own projections for a highly urbanized India
GDP Projections 2400 2100 1800 2005-2050 Scenario A, CAGR - 5.8% Scenario B, CAGR - 7.0% B GDP 2005 =100 1500 1200 900 A 600 300 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Scenario A : Closer to GDP estimates in the WEO, 2006 of IEA Scenario B : Assumes 8% CAGR till 2032 as per Planning Commission Estimates
Level of Urbanization 80% Percentage 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% B A 20% 10% 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GDP Share Coming from Transport in Future 6.4 6.2 6 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Demand for Passenger Transport in Future 25000 25000 Per Capita Demand (Billion Pkm) 20000 15000 10000 5000 Demand Demand Rail Demand Air 20000 15000 10000 5000 Per Capita (Pkm/ person) 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
India 2050 : Residential Sector D E/D C/E C'/C Total 500% 400% 408% vs 2000's 300% 200% 100% 0% 226% 132% 90% 31% 8% -100% -200% -300% -400% -113% -186% -324% -194% 2050 A 2050 B
India 2050 : Transport Sector D E/D C/E C'/C Total 400% 334% 300% vs 2000's 200% 100% 0% -100% -200% 120% -128% -43% -65% -16%-11% -67% -4% -300% -262% 2050 A 2050 B
AIM Modeling for India AIM CGE Model Application
GDP Growth Projections till 2050 2400 2100 1800 2005-2050, CAGR - 7.0% GDP 2005 =100 1500 1200 900 600 300 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Scenarios Carbon Constraint Emissions in future restricted at Year 2000 Level Technology Push Greater Co-operation resulting in technology transfers Similar to Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development Faster technological improvements
Model Data Inputs I/O Table India 1999 (Source, CSO) 115 X 115 Commodities Aggregated to 4 X 4 Commodities AIM/CGE: 4 Sectors/Commodities 2 Energy and 2 Non Energy Sectors Energy Fossil & Non Fossil Fuels Non Energy Manufacturing & Services
Results Sector Growth Rates (2000-2010) 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% Mfg Other Sector Fossil Fuel Other Energy Base Carbon Constrained Technology Push
Results - CO2 Emissions Base Case Increase @ 4.22% CAGR Carbon Constraint Scenario Same as Year 2000 Technology Push Reduces Emissions @ 1.12% CAGR (Over Base Case)
LCS Modeling (separate presentation)
Contributions, Capacity Building and Dissemination 1. Multi-gas emissions inventory assessment (Period: 1985 to 2005) Mapping of district level and point source level emissions inventory for India Inputs to India s Second National Communications exercise Data for Baseline Assessment for CDM Projects for F-Gases and Electricity Sector 2. AIM Model Applications (Contributions, Capacity Building and Interfaces) Energy Snapshot Model Applications for India CGE Model Applications for India Modeling for Low Carbon Society and Stabilization Assessment 3. Dissemination and Interfaces Stern Report IEA s World Energy Outlook (2006) IPCC AR4 & New Scenarios APN s CAPaBLE Project UNEP s Development and Climate Project India s Second National Communication EMF 22
Future Work 1. Multi-gas Emissions inventory assessment Mapping of New District Level and Large Point Source Emissions Inventories for India Emissions Coefficient for New and Future Technologies Forestry and Land-use Database 2. AIM model applications New Emissions Scenarios Integrating Innovations, Co-benefits and Sustainability Indicators Extended Snapshot Model Application for India for LCS Scenario AIM/CGE Model Development for India New applications to support global clean energy and climate change programs and initiatives 3. Capacity building, dissemination, interfaces and contributions to National and International Assessment Initiatives together with the AIM team