Energy system scenarios for Denmark & Europe towards 2030, 2035 and 2050 Joint FutureGas-CITIES-InnoSE Gas Workshop 2017-04-03 Anders Bavnhøj Hansen (abh@energinet.dk) Chief engineer Research & development Energinet.dk 2017-04-13 Energy system scenarios for Denmark & Europe 1
Analysis assumptions Scenarios - Gamechangers Analysis assumptions (Central estimate) Scenarios Game changers (What if ) Energinet.dk analyseforudsætninger http://www.energinet.dk/en/el/udvikling-afelsystemet/analyseforudsaetninger/sider/default.aspx http://www.energinet.dk/da/forskning/nyheder/sider/nye-scenarier-goer-kiggeti-krystalkuglen-skarpere.aspx 7-04-04 Analyseforudsætninger og scenarier for udvikling af energisystemet 2
DK 1990! Energirelateret CO2 Global contekst IEA WEO and COP 21 DK 2015: 6,9 ton CO2/capita (energi) Global: 2,1 ton CO2/capita Target: Well below 2 degr. IEA 450 PPM 2 degr. scenario Mission Innovation More global R&D INDC s 2017-04-13 Energy system scenarios for Denmark & Europe A tough challenge to realise Paris COP21 targets significant CO2-reduction needed 3
Uncertainties in international framework conditions (fuel and CO2-prices, focus on green energy etc.) Paris COP21 A need for scenarios to handle uncertainties 2017-04-13 Energy system scenarios for Denmark & Europe 4
Global plans (INDC s) significant grow in wind/solar Kilde: Ecofys, april 2016 INDC s does not lead to needed reduction in CO2 if Well below 2 degr should be realised A need for even more wind, solar, RE-fuels and energy efficiency 2017-04-13 Energy system scenarios for Denmark & Europe 5
Europe a case with wind and solar mix Wind ressources Solar ressources Population densities 2016-09-27 Smart Energy system compliant with COP21 visions for CO2 reduction Europe A high population density region with a mix of wind and solar ressources - A representative case
European scenarios to cope with uncertain future Tyndp 2016 Tyndp 2018 (work in progress) Distributed generation High impact from local prosumer solutions EU on track with 2050 vision High oil prices (IEA New policies) and high CO2 prices 50% electricity from wind/solar in 2040 Global climate action Strong international green framework EU on track with 2050 vision Moderate oil prices and very high CO2-prices (IEA 450 PPM) 50% electricity from wind/solar in 2040 Sustainable Transition EU not fully on track with 2050 vision Low oil/natural gas prices and moderate CO2- prices (IEA Low oil price scenario) 2017-04-13 Energy system scenarios for Denmark & Europe 7
RE-electricity potential ressources DK Socio-economic cost of energy 2030 excl. integration (LCOE) 100 $/MWh Landvind Onshore wind Cost of electricity Offshore wind Bio-CHP Coal-CHP (interval) Power consumption scenarios Onshore wind (high scenario) PV solar Offshore wind (up to 35 m depth) Wave power Offshore wind (more than 35 m depth) Bio CHP Technology data 2014/2015 and 4% discount Solar large scale not illustrated 2017-04-13 Energy system scenarios for Denmark & Europe 8
REgas prce (DKK/GJ) excl. cleaning and upgrade 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Straw Waste mun. Energycrops Wood Ressources and cost for fuels (2030 if all biomass is allocated to fuels) Today primary used for heat and CHP Marg. bio etc. Slurry etc. Electrolysis (power 2 gas) 2050 2035 Consumption of fuels (gas+liquids) Fuels demand today would require more than 30 GW extra windpower if power-to-gas should deliver 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Fuel production (PJ) 2013 Gasoil + CO2 (2035) Natural gas + CO2 (2035) A significant demand for fuels electrification is needed to solve the fuel challenge Natural gas cheaper than gasoil RE-gas cheaper than biofuels 2017-04-13 Energy system scenarios for Denmark & Europe 9
Power production TWh 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Scenarios 2030 Wind (offshore/onshore) Decentralized Electricity consumption Solar Central power A high electrification in scenario 3 and 4 Wind/solar increased 2017-04-13 Energy system scenarios for Denmark & Europe 10
Post 2030 - Towards RE-based energy supply in 2050 P2G HP HP Industry- HP EV/PHEV 2017-04-13 Energy system scenarios for Denmark & Europe 11
System integration at different plant types Wind offshore North sea area N D NL UK S Power transmission grid (above 100 kv) System services additional Wood chips Wood waste Wind onshore PV Large Central energy plant O2 ETES Bio-2-gas (thermal) High temp Gasturbine Water- Shift Steamturbine Powerto-gas H2 BioFuel catalysis O2 (NH3 etc.) Large industry/service prosumer PV HP ATES Varme/køl Gas boiler A 50/60 kv 10 kv - B 0,4 kv - C Heat Lille prosumer bolig ell. service PV Battery EV HP DSO battery Slurry Bio waste Straw Decentralized Energy plant C-N-P-K Biogas unit Anearob C-P-K-flex Gasmotor Biogas Thermal gasificat. SNG catalysis Dist heat Small decentralized plant CHP HP Heat storage Powerto-gas Gaskedel FV Heat Gas/Power-to-Liquied LNG plant G2L LNG DH DH LNG Gas-net (NG/SNG) 12
System analysis of a central energy plant with Sifre model Black numbers are Energy flows in MWh over 24 hours O2 0 Red numbers are prices in DKK/MWh Market NGas market 0,0 ASU 191 0,020 411 0 0 NGas GT SC 411 To Gas Boiler 0 0 215 To HT Proces Heat 0 12000 Dried 12000 Thermal 9085 Gas- 4090 Methanol 10390 Methan 10390 Methanol Wood Gasification 0 Boiler Synthesis ol Market 713 Wood- Chips Market 10817 Wood- Chips 10817 O2 5313 Storage EC gas 4594 5017 El O2 EC gas EC EL 0,2866 0,3064 splitter 4594 DK1 395 0 395 SynGas SynGas 0,0 Storage 0 548 H2 To DH 4594 From HTPH 610 0 Water shift 0,0 503 Ngas 9085 470 0 LTPH 411 DH DH Sink Procesheat Demand 539 247 610 207 207 2903 952 2839 713 2111 HM1 HM2 DH storage Dryer From EC 0 539 0,0 District Heating 2903 988 2839 H Splitter 1 H Splitter 2 HM3 2338,4 1851 565 1851 1593 H Splitter 3 1094 Heat 230 0 From ST 0,0 From CHP 2596 514,2 519,2 From Water Shift 1372 0 LT Proces 614,3 380 To Water Shift 258 HT Proces Heat 514,16 Steam 540 To DH Turbine Sifre model used for investment optimization incl. P2G Thermal integration Steam turbine/soec Carbon balance O 2 balance (P2G/ASU) 13
2035 - Reference with fossil free power and heat system Import power Transit Power-system Export power Solar Wind Bio CHP and boiler Gas CHP/boiler Electrolysis Central Heat pumps Heat systems (DH and block heat) DK2014: 7,8 ton CO2/capita from energy High temp HT-HP. El-proces Light,it,cool Procesheat Bio, waste etc. Natural gas Fossil oil Ethanol Anaerob digestion DK 2035: Gassystems (methan/synthesisgas/h2) 3,14 ton CO2/capita incl. local systems (from Energy) Transit Gas storage Gascathalysis etc. Seatransport Bioplast etc. Thermal gasification HeatP. Boiler EV/PHEV CE/FC Building heating. Roadtransport Railwaytransport Aviation Liquid fuels fossil/re (Gasoline, Diesel, Ethanol, Methanol, DME etc.) 14 mio ton CO2 10 TWh=36 PJ 2017-04-13 Energy system scenarios for Denmark & Europe 14
Feasibility study 2035+ reduced fossil oil demand Import power Transit Power system Export power Solar Wind Bio CHP and boiler Gas CHP and boiler Electrolysis DK2014: 7,8 ton CO2/capita from energy High temp Central heat pumps Heat systems (DH and block) HT-VP. El-proces Light, it,cool. Procesheat Bio, waste etc. Varmep. Kedel EV/PHEV FM/FC Building heating. Roadtransport Natural gas 6 mio ton CO2 Ethanol Anaerob digestion Gas-systems (methan/synthesisgas/h2) incl. local systems Gas storage Gascathalysis etc. Seatransport Bioplast DK 2035: 1,2 ton CO2/capita (from fossil Energy) etc. Transit Liquid fuels fossil/re (Gasoline, Diesel, Ethanol, Methanol, DME etc.) 2017-04-13 Energy system scenarios for Denmark & Europe Case with straw used for biogas Thermal gasification Railwaytransport Aviation 10 TWh=36 PJ 15
Summing up The COP21 (Paris) aggreement i very ambitios. A need for very large increase in wind and solar power A high need for electrification heat, transport sector to reduce CO2 and reduce need for fuels A need for fuels (gas/liquieds) for heavy transport, aviation, peak-power A need for further development of new central energy plants suited for wind/solar dominated regions A need for further development of decentralized bio-energy plants (biogas/power-to-gas) solving the energy-agro integration 2017-04-13 Energy system scenarios for Denmark & Europe 16
Thank you for attention Link: www.energinet.dk/energianalyser 2017-04-13 Energy system scenarios for Denmark & Europe 17