Impact of climate change on biodiversity: a challenge to agro-ecosystems in South Asia Buddhi Marambe and Pradeepa Silva Faculty of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya Sri Lanka MARCO Symposium, Tsukuba, Japan. 26 th August 2015
Asia & South Asia Asia: 8.6 % of the world s land area Asia: >60 % of the world population South Asia Land Area: 4.6 million km² (10 % of Asia; 3.3% of the world) Population: 1.63 billion (45 % of Asia ; >25 % of the world)
Population density of Asia
Forest cover in Asia
A small island in the Indian Ocean 65,610 sq. km 430 km (north to south) 225 km (east to west) Coastal line - 1340 km 650 km north to the equator Population 20.5 million Population density: 327/km 2 Home Gardens: 14.8% About Sri Lanka
Population Density and Forest cover in Sri Lanka
Biodiversity in Asia Global importance and richness Of the 34 biodiversity hotspots, 8 are in Asia. East Melanesian Islands The Philippines, Wallacea Sundaland Himalayas Indo-Burma Western Ghats &Sri Lanka Mountains of southwest China USAID (2012)
Western Ghats and Sri Lanka similar climate, geology and evolutionary history 400 km apart Together, contain; >6,000 vascular plant species 80 endemic genera 175 amphibian species (130 are endemic) 260 reptile species (2/3 are endemic)
Elephas maximus
Biodiversity in Sri Lanka The richest per unit area in Asia: mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fish and flowering plants Surpasses several mega diversity countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia and India.
Taxonomic group Biodiversity in Sri Lanka high endemicity Land snails Dragonflies Bees Ants Butterflies Spiders Freshwater crabs Reptiles Freshwater fish Birds Amphibians Pteridophytes Mammals Angiosperms 81% 39.8% 17% 10.6% 51% 98% 58.8% 54.9% 11.3% 85.6% 14.6% 22.1% 28.2% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Numbe of Species
Taxonomic Category Number of Threatened Endemic Species Land snails Dragonflies Bees Ants Butterflies Spiders Freshwater crabs Reptiles Freshwater fish Birds Amphibians Pteridophytes Mammals Angiosperms 40 8 22 24 45 39 18 33 18 71 87 106 162 594 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Number of Threatened Endemic Species
Global Importance of Sri Lanka s Biodiversity Four forests - Natural World Heritage Sites Four Biosphere Reserves - UNESCO s World Network Six Ramsar sites
Importance of biodiversity Contributes to 40 % of the world s economy Provides 80 % of the needs of the world s poor 2009: Sri Lanka: Wood products from Asia (US$ 28.4 billion) (27.4 % of the world s total) Non-timber forest products (US$ 7 billion) (37.8 % of the world s total) biodiversity of the coastal and marine ecosystems provides over 65 % of the animal protein requirement of the country
Biodiversity in Agroecosystems Agriculture is the largest global user of biodiversity. Selection and value addition to wild biodiversity have taken place for more than 10,000 years Sri Lanka: 410 species of crop wild relatives 289 species are indigenous 77 are endemic
Diversity of rice in Sri Lanka
Diversity of Root and Tuber crops in Sri Lanka
Diversity of fruits in Sri Lanka
Diversity of chilli in Sri Lanka
Diversity of cattle in Sri Lanka
Diversity of chicken in Sri Lanka
Crop/animal Wild Relatives Crop No. of Wild Relatives Oryza sativa (rice) 5 Piper nigrum (black pepper) 9 Vigna radiata (mung bean) 6 Musa paradisiaca (banana) 2 Cinnamomum zeylanicum (Cinnamon) 8 Animal Sus scrofa domesticus (pig) 1 Gallus gallus domesticus (chicken) 1
Village pigs local pigs Wild pigs
Village chicken of various types Jungle fowl
Climate Change 1850-2012 Global temperature has increased by 0.85 C (range 0.65 to 1.06 C )
Impact of Climate Change - IPCC Up to 30 % of species are at increasing risk of extinction Approximately 15-40 % of ecosystems are affected Direct effects (high temperature, Floods ad drought): individual organisms, populations, species distribution, and ecosystem compositions and functions.
Native biodiversity of the world is under threat Wild Plant biodiversity: 15 37 % are facing extinction by 2050. Within 40-50 years; Arachis species 61 % would extinct Potato - 12 % would extinct Vigna species 8 % would extinct Staple production - 10 % reduction Millet and Maize production - 10 % reduction
Native biodiversity of the world is under threat 20% of the livestock breeds were at risk by 2007 20 28% breeds at risk in developed countries 7 10% breeds at risk in developing countries
Climate Change and Water Balance in South Asia (ADB, 2014)
Total GDP Loss Anticipated in South Asia in 2050 due to Climate Change
Climate Change Impact in South Asia A 2 C rise in temperature rise + 7 % increase in precipitation : 3 % loss in net farm revenues Grain harvests: drop by 30 % by 2050 Bangladesh (due to increase in temperature) Rice: 17 28 % reduction Wheat: 31 68 % reduction
Climate change in Sri Lanka Slow & continuous rise of ambient temperature (0.01 0.03 C per year) Frequent occurrence of extreme weather events Droughts & floods : increased High intensity rains Land slides : increased Tornado type winds : increased Intense lightning strikes : increased Total number of dry days : increased Warm days : increased Number of cold nights/comfort nights : decreased Marambe et al. (2012, 2013, 2014), Punyawardena et al (2010, 2013,), Punyawardena and Premalal (2013)
Wetter rainy seasons and drier dry seasons Less rain when required More rain when not required Serious implications for food production and agrobiodiversity (reduce agriculture productivity by 10-50% in next three decades) (APAARI, 2012)
Climate Change Impact on Sri Lanka Reduction of monthly rainfall by 100 mm: reduce productivity by 30 80 kg of tea per hectare Extended dry spells and excessive cloudiness during the wet season: reduce coconut yield, (annual losses of US$ millions 32 73) A change in net revenues in smallholder agriculture: between 23 % and + 22 %
Synthesis Over-reliance on a handful of crops and animals: global food security at a higher risk, in the context of climate change Loss of wild relatives of crops and animals: loss of gene banks Many species with potential medicinal or economic value may become extinct even before being discovered Increase the incidence insect pests, diseases, weeds and invasive alien species (IAS)
Recommendation Maintain diversity of crop plants and farm animals, and their wild relatives protection from total failure of the agriculture system gene pool to develop new crop varieties and animal breeds to cope up with the challenges of changing climate
Thank You