JICA- ENERGY POLICY-2018 INDIA Ammi Ruhama Toppo Director Central Electricity Authority DATA TAKEN FROM CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY S WEBSITE AND NATIONAL ELECTRCITY PLAN 2018
KEY OBJECTIVE OF ENERGY POLICY Access at affordable prices Improved security and Independence Greater Sustainability Economic Growth.
Energy Resource Map Hydro potential in NER and upper part of NR Coal reserves mainly in ER
WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCE MAP OF INDIA (Source CWET, Chennai)
INSTALLED CAPACITY Fuel-wise Total All India Installed Capacity (MW) As on 31.05.2018 Nuclear, 6780, 2% Gas, 24897, 7.2% Diesel, 838, 0.2% Hydro, 45403,13.2% R.E.S, 69022 20.1% Coal, 196958 57.3% Diesel Hydro Coal R.E.S Gas Nuclear TOTAL: 343898 MW
GENERATION(2017-18) Hydro, 126133.79, 10% Bhutan import, 4856.01, 0% RES, 101839.48, 8% Nuclear, 38247.05, 3% Thermal, 1036684.09, 79% Thermal Nuclear Hydro Bhutan import RES TOTAL 1307760.4 GWh ALL FIGURES IN GWh
CAPACITY ADDITION FROM CONVENTIONAL SOURCES 120,000 100,000 88,537 99209 80,000 MW 60,000 40,000 40,245 41,110 62,374 54,964 20,000 19,119 21,180 0 1997-2002 2002-07 2007-12 2012-17 TARGET ACHIEVED
CAPACITY MIX (SINCE MARCH,1981) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Coal+Lignite Gas+Diesel Hydro Nuclear RES
GENERATION MIX (SINCE MARCH,2007) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Thermal Hydro Nuclear RES
Nepal 440MW, 200MU(2016-17) 14 Links [11kV (4), 33kV (5), 132kV(5)] EXPORT Cross Border Trade of Electricity Bhutan 1500MW, 1000MU (2016-17) 6 Links [132kV(1), 220kV(2), 400kV(3)] IMPORT Total Export & Import (2016-17) (2021-22) Export 1100MW 2260MW Import 1500MW 5100MW Net 400MW 2840MW Transmission links have been established between border states in Indian territory (Bihar, UP, Uttarakhand, Tripura, Manipur, West Bengal, and Assam) with neighbouring countries (synchronous/asynchronous /radial links). Myanmar <1MW, 0.35 MU(2016-17) One Link [11kV] EXPORT Bangladesh 660MW, 400MU(2016-17) 2 Links [400kV with HVDC back to back, 132kV] EXPORT
Power Supply Position in the country 200 Power Supply Position in terms of Peak 16 1400000 Power Supply Postion in terms of Energy 12 180 160 140 120 14 12 10 1200000 1000000 10 8 100 8 800000 80 60 40 20 6 4 2 600000 400000 6 4 0 0 200000 2 0 2001-02 2006-07 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 0 Peak Demand (GW) Peak Demand Met(GW) Demand Not Met (%) Energy Requiremnet (MU) Energy Availability (MU) Energy Not Met (%) 1. At present, demand supply gap at an all time low of less than 1%. This gap is on account of factors other than nonavailability of power. 2. Adequate power available in the country.
ALL INDIA THERMAL PLF T&D AND AT&C LOSSES 73.6 76.8 78.6 77.2 77.48 75.07 73.32 69.93 65.55 64.46 62.28 60.01 60.67 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 34.78 34.33 33.02 30.62 29.45 32.53 31.25 30.42 28.65 27.2 27.37 26.58 26.15 27 25.38 22.58 24.62 25.47 25.39 23.97 23.65 23.04 21.46 22.77 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2017-18 2016-17 Coal based capacity under reserved shut down during the current year is 15000-25000 MW. T&D losses (Source: PDM CEA) AT&C Losses (Source: PFC)
ALL INDIA ANNUAL PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY (KWH) 592 612.5 631.5 671.9 717.1 733.54 778.63 818.8 883.64 914.41 956.64 1010 1075 1122 1149 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 16.3 in DEC,1947
PROJECTIONS OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND-19 TH ELECTRIC POWER SURVEY ENERGY REQUIREMENT BU 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1,566 226 2,047 2,531 3,049 299 370 448 2021-22 2026-27 2031-32 2036-37 PEAK DEMAND Growth Rate (%) 2016-17 to 2021-22 CAGR of Electrical Energy Requirement CAGR of Peak Electricity Demand YEAR ENERGY REQUIREMENT 2021-22 to 2026-27 6.18 5.51 6.88 5.77 Year 500 400 300 200 100 0 PEAK DEMAND GW Energy Requirement (BU) Peak Requirement (GW) 2021-22 206 9 2026-27 273 12
Renewable Installed Capacity Target by 2022 Biomass 6% Wind 34% Small hydro 3% Solar 57% 190,000 140,000 90,000 MW 40,000-10,000 57,260 12,289 Projected Growth of RES Installed Generating Capacity (MW) 71,768 32,280 33,578 2016-17 25,475 2017-18 95,319 43,035 120,772 61,693 39,078 45,305 2018-19 YEAR 2019-20 147,541 80,899 174,998 100,000 52,258 60,000 2020-21 TOTAL SOLAR WIND 2021-22
Estimated Electricity Generation from RES in years 2021-22 and 2026-27 Year Installed capacity of RES (GW) Solar Expected Generation in (BU) Wind Biomas s SHP Total Total Energy Requiremen t (BU) Contributio n of RES to Total Energy Demand(%) 2021-22 175 162 112 37 15 326 1,566 20.8% 2026-27 275 243 188 63 24 518 2,047 25.3% PROJECTED ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RES BY 2021-22 Wind 34% Solar 50% Biomass SHP 11% 5%
BASE CASE(2017-22) ASSUMPTIONS Capacity addition considered Years Committed Capacity (MW) Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal based Capacity under construction (MW) RES Capacity by March, 2022 (MW) Retirement of Coal Based Plants (2017-22) (MW) 2017-22 6,823 3,300 406 47,855 175,000 22,716 BASE CASE(2017-22) RESULT Additional Coal based capacity Requirement during 2017-22 (MW)* Coal Based Generation (Gross) (GWh) Expected PLF% during 2021-22 During 2017-22* 6445 1072 56.5% *Actual coal based capacity addition required during 2017-22 is 6,445 as per study even though 47,855 MW are expected to come between 2017-22. However, this addition of 47,855 MW of coal based capacity during 2017-22 would bring down the PLF as indicated in
PROJECTED INSTALLED CAPACITY (MARCH, 2022) Renewables 175,000 37% Coal+Lignite 217,302 45% Hydro 155,742.0 9.16% Coal+Lignite 1,071,801.0 63.05% RES 327,000.0 19.24% Nuclear 10,080 2% Hydro 51,301 11% Gas 25,736 5% TOTAL 4,79,419 MW Nuclear 62,643.0 3.69% Gas+Diesel 82,626.0 4.86% TOTAL 16,99,812 GWh ALL FIGURES IN MW ALL FIGURES IN GWh
BASE CASE(2022-27) ASSUMPTIONS Capacity addition considered Years Committed Capacity (MW) Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal based Capacity under construction during 2017-22 (MW) RES Capacity by March, 2027 (MW) Retirement of Coal Based Plants (2022-27) (MW) 2022-27 12,000 6,800 0 47,855 275,000 25,572 BASE CASE(2022-27) RESULT Additional Coal based capacity Requirement during 2022-27 (MW) Coal Based Generation (Gross) (GWh) Expected PLF% during 2026-27 46,420 1259 60.5%
PROJECTED INSTALLED CAPACITY (MARCH, 2027) Renewables 275,000 44% Coal+Lignite 238,150 39% Hydro 268,859.0 12.10% Coal+Lignite 1,238,906.0 55.74% RES 518,000.0 23.31% Nuclear 16,880 3% TOTAL 6,19,066 MW Hydro 63,301 10% Gas 25,735 4% Nuclear 110,696.0 4.98% Gas+Diesel 86,182.0 3.88% TOTAL 22,22,643 GWh ALL FIGURES IN MW ALL FIGURES IN GWh
India s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) 40 % cumulative power installed capacity from non-fossil fuels by 2030 Year Likely IC (GW) Likely IC of Fossil Fuel (GW) Likely IC of Non-Fossil Fuel (GW) % of Non-Fossil Fuel in IC March 2022 March 2027 479.4 243.0 236.4 49.31% 619.0 263.8 355.2 57.37% * Generation from RES also included.
PROJECTED CO2 EMISSIONS FROM GRID CONNECTED POWER STATIONS YEAR Projected Total Carbon Emissions from Coal and Gas Based Plants (Million Tones) Emission Rate* (KgCO 2 /kwh) 2015-16 859 0.732 2021-22 1026 0.604 2026-27 1173 0.524 * Generation from RES also included.
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