high RES penetration scenarios case studies for Germany and Europe - Middle East/North Africa Wolfram Krewitt DLR Institute of Technical Thermodynamics Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment Stuttgart EMF Workshop Modeling Renewable Energy Technologies in IAMs August 5, 2009 Folie 1 > Vortrag > Autor
global renewable energy potential >> energy demand solar irradiation physical potential 1 800 technical potential wind 200 20 10 2 1 3,7 0,4 0,3 0,7 0,1 0,15 global primary energy demand 2006 (492 EJ) 1 Folie 2 > Vortrag > Autor
critical issues related to high RES shares availability of renewable energy resources match load and supply compliance with nature conservation and sustainability criteria Folie 3 > Vortrag > Autor
case study I: the German Lead Study 2008 Strategy to increase the use of renewables in Germany Policy targets: CO 2 reduction: 40% by 2020, 80% by (compared to 1990) increase energy productivity by 3% per year until 2020 renewable energies: - electricity: 30% by 2020 - heat: 14% by 2020 - primary energy demand: 50% by phase out of nuclear electricity generation by 2022 Folie 4 > Vortrag > Autor
renewable electricity potential in Germany MW 200000 winter week January 2006 summer week June 2006 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 480 500 520 540 560 580 600 620 640 CSP PV Wind offshore Wind onshore biogas biomass solid hydro reservoir hydro run-of-river Geothermal CHP Geothermal load 177 4197 4217 4237 4257 4277 4297 4317 4337 hour Source: REMix Model, DLR Folie 5 > Vortrag > Autor
wind energy potential under nature conservation constraints wind speed m/s road network nature protection areas landscape conservation area forests biotopes agricultural areas (Baden-Württemberg, Southern Germany) visual sensitivity... Folie 6 > Vortrag > Autor
renewable combi-plant German load curve scaled down by 1:10,000 full supply by wind, PV, biogas and pump storage Folie 7 > Vortrag > Autor
renewable combi-plant electricity mix 2006 in MWh 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 Import hydro biogas PV wind Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Folie 8 > Vortrag > Autor
electricity generation in the German Lead Study 700 gross electricity generation in TWh/a 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 Import RES PV Geothermal Wind Hydro Biomass CHP coal, gas Gas & oil (cond.) Lignite (cond.) Coal (cond.) Nuclear 85% renewables Folie 9 > Vortrag > Autor
German Lead Study 2008 differential costs of RES exploitation cumulated differential costs, billion 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80 +55 +66-57 -270 heat -112 elect. - 148 PV electricity excl. PV heat fuels -100 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 Folie 10 > Vortrag > Autor
case study II: Sustainable Electricity and Water for Europe, Middle East and North Africa MED-CSP TRANS-CSP AQUA-CSP source: Trieb et al. www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp Folie 11 > Vortrag > Autor
solar resources in the Middle East/North Africa region a solar thermal power plant of the size of Lake Nasser (Aswan) could harvest energy equivalent to the annual oil production of the Middle East Folie 12 > Vortrag > Autor
concentrating solar thermal power plant with heat storage KONZENTRIERENDER collector field SONNENKOLLEKTOR solar heat (fuel) ENERGIE- thermal SPEICHER storage WÄRMEKRAFTpower block MASCHINE (optional) electricity heat Andasol 1, under construction Andasol 1 (50 MW), Spain: 7 full load hours thermal storage dispatchable solar bulk power Folie 13 > Vortrag > Autor
Gross Electricity Demand in Middle East and North Africa (source: DLR MED-CSP) Gross Electricity Consumption [TWh/y] 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Year Diff.to Trend Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Egypt Yemen UAE Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait Bahrain Oman Syria Lebanon Jordan Israel Iraq Iran Folie 14 > Vortrag > Autor
Electricity Supply in the Middle East & North Africa Folie 15 > Vortrag > Autor
CO 2 emissions from the EUMENA power sector (source: DLR TRANS-CSP) CO2-Emissions in Mt/y 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Year Avoided Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Wave / Tidal Biomass CSP Plants Oil / Gas Coal Nuclear Folie 16 > Vortrag > Autor
Trans-European High Voltage Direct Current Electricity Grid Solar Wind Hydro Geothermal Biomass HV-DC lines Folie 17 > Vortrag > Autor
Munich, July 13, 2009 Assembly of Desertec Industrial Initiative On July, 13 a group of European companies and the DESERTEC Foundation have signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the aim to put the DESERTEC Concept into effect in the EUMENA Region. source: DESERTEC Foundation / www.desertec.org Folie 18 > Vortrag > Autor
discussion significant reduction of energy related CO 2 emissions (~ 80%) in Europe is achievable without relying on nuclear and CCS exploitation of renewable energies needs to go along with structural and institutional adaptation of the supply system renewable energies are often not well represented in state-of-the-art energy system models: - renewable energy potentials are not fully used - often implicit and artificial constraints to address problem of integrating fluctuating RES sources new model developments are on the way to support better representation of renewables Folie 19 > Vortrag > Autor
case study III: Energy [R]evolution a sustainable global energy outlook DLR/Ecofys on behalf of and in cooperation with Greenpeace International European Renewable Energy Council Folie 20 > Vortrag > Autor
Energy [R]evolution - approach target oriented scenario: energy related global CO 2 in : ~ 10 Gt/a global phase out of nuclear energy economic growth according to IEA assumptions scenario building 10 world regions (according to IEA regions) (+ ~ 30 country scenarios) review of regional data (demand/supply structure, efficiency potential, RES potential, policy targets, etc.) stakeholder workshop with representatives from each world region (industry/academia/ngo) Folie 21 > Vortrag > Autor
450% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% global final energy demand business-as-usual 0% Africa China India Latin America Middle East OECD Europe OECD N America OECD Pacific Other Dev. Asia Trans. Econom. Folie 22 > Vortrag > Autor
energy efficiency potentials Energy [R]evolution scenario 450% 400% Total / remaining energy demand Transport Industry Other 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Africa China India Latin America Middle East OECD Europe OECD N America OECD Pacific Other Dev. Asia Trans. Econom. Folie 23 > Vortrag > Autor
electricity generation - Energy [R]evolution scenario OECD Europe China Folie 24 > Vortrag > Autor
global electricity generation Energy [R]evolution scenario 60.000 TWh/a 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 Efficiency Ocean Energy Solar Thermal PV Geothermal Wind Hydro Biomass Gas&oil Coal Nuclear 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 77% RES share Folie 25 > Vortrag > Autor
Energy [R]evolution CO 2 balance in (assumption: per capita emission rights of 1 t CO2 per year) Folie 26 > Vortrag > Autor