State of the Environment in Ireland 201 2 Meeting the Main Environmental Challenges Workshop - 27 June 201 2 2012 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland Trends and Projections Dr Maria Martin Climate Change and Environmental Research Programme
EPA s role on inventories and projections EPA was established as the competent authority for the National Atmospheric Inventory System in 2007 National Climate Change Strategy (2007) designated the EPA responsible for producing national emission projections EPA submits figures to EU and UN on an annual basis for inventories and EU biannually for projections EPA Team Dr. Eimear Cotter, Paul Duffy, Bernard Hyde Stephan Leinert and Emilia Hanley Coordination, quality assurance and quality control of data from wide range of sources e.g. SEAI, Teagasc, CSO, Department of Agriculture and Marine, ESRI
Greenhouse Gas Trends 1990-2010 80 70 +27% -4% -9% 60 Mtonnes, CO 2 eq 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Energy Residential Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste
Sectoral Emission Trends 1990-2010 25 Mtonnes, CO 2 eq 20 15 10 5 0 Energy Residential Transport 18.9% Waste 1.4% Energy 21.8% Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste Residential 12.7% Agriculture 30.5% 2010 Industry & Commercial 14.6%
Ireland s Emissions Trading Sector 25 20-9% -16% +1% -9% Mtonnes, CO 2 eq 15 10 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 30% drop in emissions from the Emissions Trading Sector between 2005 and 2011 5
Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections 70 60 50 Mtonnes, CO 2 eq With Measures existing policies and measures With Additional Measures existing and planned policies and measures 40 30 20 10-1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 With Measures With Additional Measures
Kyoto Protocol Limit Mtonnes, CO 2 eq 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 Kyoto Limit = 62.837 Ireland is on track to meet its Kyoto commitment Projections indicate 4.1-5.1 Mt CO 2 eq above KP limit over 2008-2012 40 With Measures Kyoto Limit With Additional Measures Baseline Range represents two scenarios With Measures and With Additional Measures 7
EU 2020 Targets Overall target is 20% reduction compared to 1990 levels Separates the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions between ETS and non-ets sectors over period 2013-2020 ETS EU wide cap rather than national caps, reducing by 1.74% per annum to give an overall reduction of 21% by 2020 compared to 2005. No free allocation to Powergen sector Limited free allocation starting at 70%, reducing to 30% benchmark in other areas Sectors subject to carbon leakage receive 100% benchmark
Non ETS sectors Non-ETS sectors - transport, buildings, agriculture and waste - governed by the EU Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) Establishes annual binding greenhouse gas emission targets for EU Member States for non-ets sectors for the period 2013 2020 The target for Ireland for non-ets sectors is to reduce emissions by 20% in 2020 relative to 2005 levels
EU Effort Sharing Decision 20% 45 40 35 CO 2 eq, Mtonnes 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 WM WAM Annual Limits 10
Sectoral Share non-ets sectors Residential 12% Industry& Commercial 10% Transport 27% Waste 3% 2020 Agriculture 48% Agriculture and transport - 75% of non- ETS sector emissions in 2020 Shows the important role that transport and agriculture will play in developing mitigation options to achieve 2020 targets 11
Transport EPA s Transport projection assumes Technological improvements improved fuel efficiency 10% biofuels in 2020 Achievement of electric vehicle target of 200,000 electric vehicles by 2020 More efficient traffic movements Further improvements are possible require behavioural changes and removal of barriers to new technologies
Agriculture Agriculture projection assumes Full achievement of Food Harvest targets Removal of milk quota by April 1 2015 Efficiencies included in line with Sectoral Road Map for Dairying Teagasc (2012) potential for further reductionsimprovements in the Economic Breeding Index, extended grazing and nitrogen efficiency - require behavioural changes incentivisation.
Flexibilities under the Effort Sharing Decision Carry forward from the following year a quantity of up to 5% of its annual emission allocation Carry over of excess emission reductions to the subsequent years Transfer part of the annual emission allocation to other Member States Use of credits up to 3% of a Member States 2005 emissions - additional 1% limit for some MS
Conclusions Ireland is on track to meet its Kyoto commitment taking into account the EU ETS and/or the potential use of credits already purchased by the State Ireland is projected to exceed its EU Effort Sharing Decision annual limits in 2015-2017 and its 2020 target Now is the time to set both the right level of ambition and the right pace of transition to a low-carbon economy Need to focus on delivering currently planned policies and measures to achieve With Additional Measures scenario and identify new policies and measures Focus should be on domestic action agriculture and transport Domestic action can contribute to economic recovery, innovation and wider environmental benefits.