Agriculture for Sustainable Development Mark Cackler Agriculture & Environmental Services Department The World Bank mcackler@worldbank.org www.worldbank.org/ard Global Sustainability Conference Dublin September 26, 2013
75% of the world s poor are rural and most are in farm families. In the 21st century agriculture remains fundamental for poverty reduction, shared prosperity and environmental sustainability.
Feeding 9 billion by 2050.requires 50% more food
HIGH remain Global food prices
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Nominal World Food Price Index (01/1990 = 100) And prices remain volatile: We need to stop thinking of shocks as shocks 250 200 The New Normal Leading to food insecurity Leading to costly risk aversion 150 100 50
Short term food price volatility is increasingly a long term phenomenon with devastating effects 1 in 8 people will go to bed hungry tonight. Rising and volatile food prices risk losing recent gains in reducing malnutrition. Malnutrition threatens this -- and future -- generations. Already hunger and malnutrition cause the death of over 3.5 million children every year. Not a temporary phenomenon food prices are expected to stay high in the medium term (above 2004 levels through 2015) and volatile.
So. what should we do? 1. Accelerate smallholder productivity for agricultural growth and food security, especially by women 2. Follow a comprehensive approach to reduce ruralurban disparities and poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition 3. Use Climate Smart Agriculture to enhance sustainability and environmental services from agriculture 4. Pursue multiple pathways out of poverty: smallholder farming, labor markets, rural non-farm employment, migration 5. Improve the quality of governance in agriculture at local, national, and global levels 6. And don t stop when the headlines disappear: there were 830 million hungry people before the 2008 crisis
There are challenges. Land/Water Constraints Gender Inequality Subsidy and Trade Distortions Price and Weather Volatility Weak Governance On Track for a 4 Degree World
. and opportunities Growing Markets Technology Innovations Better Risk Management
Agriculture Investment is Key Promote longer-term agricultural growth; 75% of the poor are rural FAO estimates that private sector agricultural investment must rise 50%, to $200 billion per year.
Expenditure gains induced by 1% GDP growth (%) Growth from agriculture is especially effective for poverty reduction 8 6 Agriculture GDP growth from agriculture benefits the income of the poor 2-4 times more than GDP growth from nonagriculture (43 countries) 4 2 0-2 Nonagriculture Low est 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Highest 11 Expenditure deciles
Ag growth gives more bang for the buck Agriculture growth is 2 to 4 times more effective in raising incomes of the very poor than growth in other sectors
The environment and climate change: Agriculture is a big part of the problem, and... 70% of fresh water resources 40% of land area 30% of GHG emissions Contributions to greenhouse gas emissions Industrialized countries 64% Developing country agriculture & deforestation 21% Developing country other sources 15%
agriculture is a big part of the solution We need a Triple Win of: 1. Improved productivity and food security 2. Enhanced resilience to drought, flood, erosion, heat & water stress 3. Low carbon growth
Climate Smart Agriculture Productivity, Incomes, Resilience Vulnerability, Emissions
World Bank Group s Role Raise agricultural productivity Reduce risk and vulnerability Link farmers to markets and strengthen value chains
Enhance environmental services and sustainability Rural non-farm income
WBG Agriculture Action Plan FY13-15 - $8 b to $10 b annually Maintain long-term focus on five thematic areas. Raise agricultural productivity In recognition of the evolving context give more emphasis to Focus on Climate-Smart Agriculture and Landscapes Link farmers to markets and strengthen value chains Facilitate rural non-farm income Reduce risk, vulnerability, and gender inequality Enhance environmental services and sustainability Private sector responses Gender mainstreamed Longer-term risk management and improved resilience More explicit nutrition focus Landscape approaches 18
Agriculture: A World Bank Group Priority SAR: $4.8B Active Agricultural Commitment: Total = US$16.7 Billion AFR: $3.4B MNA: $0.7B EAP: $3B LCR: $2.3B ECA: $2.7B
Partnerships, including the private sector PROFISH AgriFin GEF International Land Coalition AgResults GDPRD CGIAR Global Partnership for Oceans PROFOR SecureNutrition
Sustainable
75% of the world s poor are rural and most are in farm families. With more and better investment in sustainable agriculture, we can eliminate extreme poverty and hunger, and stop a 4 world. www.worldbank.org/ard