Outlook on Power Interconnection in North-East Asia China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute (EPPEI) 2018.10
Outline 1 Current status of power interconnection 2 Potential analysis 3 Outlook on power interconnection in North-East Asia 1
1 Current status of power interconnection 2
1. Current status of power interconnection Power Interconnection between China and North-East Asian Neighboring Countries, 2017 China-Mongolia 12 lines,220/35/10kv Export:1220 GWh China-Russia 5 lines,500/220/110kv Import:3290 GWh China-North Korea 2 lines,66kv Export:1 GWh 3
1. Current status of power interconnection 2010-2017 Power Trade between China and Neighboring Countries Unit: GWh 10000 5000 0 5776 5353 4716 4549 4846 4715 4700 4700 4718 2790 2804 3662 2686 3414 3238 3000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Import Export Power Import Power Export Myanmar 31% Russia 69% Laos 8% Mongolia 35% Myanmar 5% Vietnam 52% 4
1. Current status of power interconnection During the 73 rd Session of ESCAP, we adopted a proposal to establish Energy Connectivity expert working group which is proposed by China, 2017. Entrusted by ESCAP and China National Energy Administration, EPPEI is Chinese Secretariat of the Energy Connectivity expert working group of the ESCAP Energy Commission. 5
1. Current status of power interconnection Related Research conducted by EPPEI: Research on Outlook of Power Interconnection between China and North East Asia Countries China-Russia Power Cooperation Planning China-Mongolia Energy Cooperation Planning Research on Roadmap of Energy Connectivity in Asia and Pacific Region 6
2 Potential analysis 7
2. Potential Analysis Russia Energy Resource Reserves Wind Power theoretical Reserves 80 Trillion kwh/year Solar Power theoretical Reserves 2.2 Trillion kwh/year Hydro Power theoretical Reserves Coal Proved Reserves Nature Gas Proved Reserves 2.3 Trillion kwh/year 106 Billion Tons 32 Trillion Cubic Meter 8 8
2. Potential Analysis Russia EFA (Energy Forecasting Agency) of Russia made forecast on the power demand of Russia in 2030, and put forward 2 scenario. Power electricity consumption forecast Unit: TWh 2100 1900 1700 1619 1860 Power generation capacity forecast Unit: GW 2.6% 379 1.9% 215 215 324 1500 1388 1593 1300 1100 900 1419 1151 1288 980 994 1127 980 985 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 High scenario 2008 2030 Low scenario High scenario Low scenario 9
2. Potential Analysis Russia According to Russia EFA forecast, the power surplus installed capacity of Russia in 2020 will be more than 40GW. Russia has the potential of conducting interconnection with neighboring countries and exporting surplus power electricity. Eastern Power Joint System Power Surplus >4GW Eastern Siberia Power Surplus >5GW 10
2. Potential Analysis Mongolia Energy Resource Reserves Wind Power theoretical Reserves Solar Power theoretical Reserves Coal Proved Reserves 1.1 TW 1.5 TW 12 Billion Tons 11
2. Potential Analysis Mongolia The 2015-2030 power demand forecast report of Mongolia put forward 3 scenario. The growth rate of power electricity demand in Mongolia will be very fast. Power electricity consumption Power load forecast forecast Unit: TWh Unit: GW 28.3 4.96 6%,6%,6% 6.2%,6.2%,2.9% 23.8 4.38 22 4.07 13%,15%,19% 12.3 13.3 15.8 12%,14%,17% 2.24 2.4 2.72 6.59 1.25 2015 2020 2030 Low Mid High 2015 2020 2030 Low Mid High Mongolia s power system is not particularly large. Although the power consumption will increase very rapidly,the amount of power consumption is relatively small and the 12 demand for domestic installed capacity will not be very large.
2. Potential Analysis Mongolia Mongolia has abundant energy resources, which can be converted into power electricity. According to preliminary estimates, Mongolia export power potential is more than 15GW in the eastern and southern regions. In the future, Mongolia would actively seek power consumption market in the Northeast Asian countries. Power development 蒙古国 potential>15gw 中 国 13
2. Potential Analysis Republic of Korea The 7 th power demand and supply long-term planning (2015-2029) made forecast for power demand of ROK. The power electricity consumption may reach to 657TWh in 2029. South Korea may need to add new power capacity of 28GW from now to 2029. This demand may be met by importing energy resources to build power plants, or by importing power electricity directly from neighboring countries. Power electricity consumption forecast Unit: TWh 505 2.2% 657 2015 2029 14
2. Potential Analysis Republic of Korea The power generation in ROK are mainly coal-fired and gasfired units, while the amount of coal and gas resource in ROK is relatively small which largely rely on import. Korean power companies hope to guarantee their domestic power supply through power interconnection with neighbors. 15 15
2. Potential Analysis Democratic People's Republic of Korea Recently, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has gradually eased. The future power construction market in North Korea is worthy of attention and research. At the same time, it also provides more possibilities for the Northeast Asia power interconnection channels. 16
2. Potential Analysis Japan The forecast by EIA on power installed capacity and generation of Japan are as follow. The demand of power generation in Japan is not growing very fast in the future. However, because of the large base amount, the new installed capacity is still relatively large, need to add more than 40GW new power generation. Power electricity production Power generation capacity forecast forecast Unit: TWh Unit: TkW 0.7% 1079 0.6% 1111 0.9% 3591 0.8% 3737 1013 0.7% 1042 3300 1.0% 3434 2016 2020 2025 2030 2016 2020 2025 2030 17
2. Potential Analysis Japan power plants distribution map Thermal Hydro Nuclear The power generation in Japan are mainly coal-fired, gas-fired, oil-fired and nuclear power units, while the amount of coal, gas and oil in Japan is relatively small which largely rely on import. Moreover, Japan focuses on new energy development and utilization to ensure environment protection and sustainable development. Japanese companies has been 18 conducting power interconnection in NEA related research positively.
2. Potential Analysis China In 2017, the overall power consumption in China is 6310TWh. The average annual growth rate from 2012-2017 is 4.9%. 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Unit: TWh 6310 14% 13.0% 5640 5690 5920 11.1% 12.0% 5342 12% 4703 4966 10% 4200 7.6% 8% 6.6% 2478 5.6% 5.6% 6% 5.0% 1347 4% 2% 0.9% 0% 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Power Consumption Increase Rate 19
2. Potential Analysis China By the end of 2017, the overall capacity in China is 1780GW. The average annual growth rate from 2012-2017 is 7.3%. Hydro power is 340GW, wind power is 160GW, solar power is 130GW. Renewable energy power generation accounted for 38%. 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Unit:GW 13.3% 12.5% 1780 1650 1530 10.1% 9.9% 1360 1250 1147 1063 7.9% 966 9.0% 8.8% 7.9% 7.8% 517 319 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Installed Capacity Increase Rate 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Thermal 62% 2017 Power Generation Structure Hydro 19% Nuclear 2% Wind 9% Solar and Other 8% 20
2. Potential Analysis China According to the 13 th Five-Year power development planning, the total power consumption of China will reach 9500 TWh in 2030. In the next decade. Power demand in Northeast and North China will continue to grow steadily. Power electricity consumption forecast Unit: TWh 418 3.6% 3.7% 477 572 7000 4.0% 8500 2.3% 9500 2016 2020 2025 5550 4.8% North-East Region 3.4% Unit: TWh 4.7% 1448 1740 2052 2015 2020 2025 2030 China 2016 2020 2025 North Region 21
2. Potential Analysis China Before 2025, northeast and north China power generations are oversupplied, which have the potential to export clean energy to the neighboring countries. 2025-2030, north-east and north China have certain space for power growth, which could consider to receive power from outside. In the long term, China encourages to conduct research on financial and technical feasibility of more power interconnection projects, based on the principle of mutual benefits. 22
2. Potential Analysis North East Asia Power Flow Direction Market 23
3 Outlook on power interconnection in North-East Asia 24
3. Outlook Challenges Political factors: cross-border power connectivity requires relevant countries have strong political trust; needs to coordinate the demands of all stakeholders; concerns on degrading of state energy security. Economic and business factors: Large investments; Complicated business model. The payback period is long and uncertain, especially under different legal and national systems. Technical and standards factors: requires to coordinate the planning and operation of power systems in different countries, including grid code, electricity market design and dispatching, etc.. 25
3. Outlook NEED TO STEP BY STEP Road-Map Idea: Short term(now-2025): Give priority to the implementation of less difficult interconnection projects. Actively conduct research on difficult projects. Improve consensus. Long term(2025-2050): Based on the experience of implemented interconnection projects, we will expand the consensus among NEA countries and promote wider regional power interconnection. 26
3. Outlook China-Russia Short-term: North-east and north China are all over-supplied. Therefore, China and Russia could maintain a stable power trade in recent. Carrying out research work to expand the scale of interconnection. Long-term: North China has certain space for power growth. It is possible to promote large-scale power interconnection projects in China and Russia. Research could be conducted on the scale, plan, economics of power transmission project between China and Russia. 27
3. Outlook China-Mongolia Short-term: Strengthen the interconnection between Mongolia southern region and China Inner Mongolia by 220kV or 500kV. Expand the scale of power trade between the two sides. Improve the stability of regional power grids, and promote the optimal allocation of resources in close border area. Long-term: It is possible to construct a large-scale power interconnection channel, which exports the power from southeast Mongolia to north China. The cross border power trade can be carried out in the early stage. The large-scale power interconnection could be taken into consideration according the power market, electricity tariff and etc.. 28
3. Outlook China-Korea-Japan Power Interconnection Long-term: Technology Undersea power transmission is Difficult Economics Huge investment Power source Renewable energy from China, Russia and Mongolia Distribution Complex There are still technical, economic and other related issues in the power interconnection between China, Korea and Japan that need further in-depth research. In the future, relevant projects can be promoted in a timely manner according to relevant research results and the willing of all countries. 29 29
3. Outlook Russia-China-DPRK-Korea-Japan Power Interconnection Long-term: For long-term, research could be conducted to explore the feasibility of the interconnection on Russia-China-DPRK-Korea-Japan, including the transmission scale, technology selection, economic evaluation, operation mode, business model, etc.. 30
3. Outlook Suggestions 1. Strengthen the cooperation mechanism for power interconnection Strengthen policy communication between countries, make full use of existed multilateral cooperation platform or mechanism, promote the cooperation mechanism of power interconnection. Mobilize the enthusiasm of relevant enterprises and financial. 2. Jointly carry out the research and planning work on power interconnection Carry out the research jointly on power interconnection planning and make reasonable roadmap with widely participation. Make full exchange and coordination among each country s power development planning. 31
3. Outlook Suggestions 3. Promote the exchange of grid construction and operation standards Study on the grid construction and operation standards of multiple countries. Strengthen the exchange of related standards, to provide support for power interconnection projects. 4. Explore the construction of regional power market Study power market mechanism of related countries, and formulate regional power trading and dispatching mechanism. Explore to establish regional power market. 32
3. Outlook Suggestions 5. Increase financial support Build a platform for cooperation between financial institutions and power enterprises, broaden financing channels, reduce financing costs, and provide financial support for power interconnection projects. 6. Promote innovation and application in some key technologies Accelerate technological innovation, solve the problems of long-distance transmission of large capacity under ocean. Strengthen cooperation and promote exchanges of technical personnel in the field of power interconnection. 33
Thank you! 34