Market Outlook David Reinbott Agriculture Business Specialist P.O. Box 187 Benton, MO 63736 (573) 545-3516 http://extension.missouri.edu/scott/agriculture.aspx reinbottd@missouri.edu
Trending Issues China, Weather & Money Flow Pre-2007 Marketing trends Big Crops in the U.S. and World U.S and World Growing Ending Stocks Corn Export Good Soybean Exports Slow Larger South American Corn and Soybean crops in 2018-19 Strong Dollar
Trending Issues Volatile World Trade Agreements Chinese Economic Growth China corn stocks Weather El Nino Weather Threat
Trending Issues January Report bigger crop? World Production Increasing? World Demand Steady? World Ending Stocks Increasing? Quarterly Stocks Feed?
David Reinbott November 19, 2018
Accumulated US Corn Exports and Outstanding Sales to All Countries (As of November 15, 2018) 3,000 2,500 Million Bushels 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 9/2 9/23 10/14 11/4 11/25 12/16 1/6 1/27 2/17 3/10 3/31 4/21 5/12 6/2 6/23 7/14 8/4 8/25 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Exports Account for 22% of Corn Demand
Corn Supply & Use in Argentina and Brazil November 2018 The 2017/18 drought in Argentina reduced corn yields by 26% from the previous year. Brazil s corn yields were reduce 12% from the previous year. Notice the recovery projected by USDA for corn exports in 2018/19. Keep in mind that Brazil plants two corn crops and their 2018/19 corn area can change substantially depending on the economics when the safrinha crop is
China s Historical Data Revisions 2017/18 Example For years many speculated that China s corn stocks were much higher China officially revised their corn data in October and those revision were reflected in USDA s Nov PSD Revisions were made back through 2007. As show in the table in 2017/18: Corn area revised up 20% Corn production revised up 20% Feed use revised up 12% Food, Seed, & Industrial use revised up 3% Stocks revised up 9.1% Implication: Significant Chinese corn imports unlikely for the foreseeable future.
U.S. Corn: Supply & Use 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Planted Acres 94.0 90.2 89.1 Harvested Acres 86.7 82.7 81.8 Yield 174.6 176.6 178.9 Beginning Stocks 1,738 2,294 2,140 Production 15,148 14,604 14,626 Imports 57 36 50 Total supply 16,943 16,934 16,816 Feed & Residual 5,470 5,298 5,500 Food, Seed, & Industrial 6,885 7,058 7,130 Ethanol 5,432 5,605 5,650 Total Domestic 12,355 12,356 12,630 Export 2,294 2,438 2,450 Total use 14,649 14,794 15,080 Ending Stocks 2,294 2,140 1,736 Stocks/Use 15.7% 14.5% 11.5% Ave Farm Price $3.36 $3.36 $3.60
U.S. New Crop Balance Sheets Corn Balance Sheet U.S. Corn: Supply & Use Up 3 million New Crop New Crop New Crop 2018/19 2019/20 2019/20 2019/20 Planted Acres 89.1 92.1 92.1 92.1 Harvested Acres 81.8 84.5 84.5 84.5 Yield 178.9 172.0 175.0 180.0 Beginning Stocks 2,140 1,781 1,781 1,781 Production 14,626 14,542 14,796 15,219 Imports 45 50 50 50 Total supply 16,811 16,373 16,627 17,050 Feed & Residual 5,500 5,650 5,650 5,650 Food, Seed, & Industrial 7,080 7,200 7,200 7,200 Ethanol 5,600 5,650 5,650 5,650 Total Domestic 12,580 12,850 12,850 12,850 Export 2,450 2,300 2,300 2,300 Total use 15,030 15,150 15,150 15,150 Ending Stocks 1,781 1,223 1,477 1,900 Stocks/Use 11.8% 8.1% 9.7% 12.5% Ave Farm Price $3.60 $4.02 $3.83 $3.64
March 2019 Corn Futures
March 2019 Corn Futures $4.35 Objective
December 2019 Corn Futures
December 2019 Corn Futures $4.30 Objective
Weekly December Corn Futures
Corn - Old Crop 1 2 4 5 8 Cash Hist Return Month Price Futures Basis Basis Storage Dec $3.85 $3.85 $0.00 $0.08 Jan $3.93 $3.85 $0.08 $0.14 $0.04 Feb $3.98 $3.85 $0.13 $0.19 $0.06 Mar $4.01 $3.92 $0.09 $0.14 $0.05 Aug $3.92 $4.00 -$0.08 $0.02 -$0.21 Sept $3.92 $4.04 -$0.12 -$0.21 -$0.25 Oct $3.96 $4.04 -$0.08 -$0.10 -$0.24
David Reinbott November 19, 2018
Mill. Bu. United States Soybeans Production 5,000 4,500 Production 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
Mill. Bu. 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 United States Soybeans Crush CRUSH 96-9797-9898-9999-0000-0101-0202-0303-0404-0505-0606-0707-0808-0909-1010-1111-1212-1313-1414-1515-1616-1717-1818-19
Mill. Bu. 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 United States Soybeans Exports Exports 96-9797-9898-9999-0000-0101-0202-0303-0404-0505-0606-0707-0808-0909-1010-1111-1212-1313-1414-1515-1616-1717-1818-19
9/2 9/23 10/14 11/4 11/25 12/16 1/6 1/27 2/17 3/10 3/31 4/21 5/12 6/2 6/23 7/14 8/4 8/25 Million Bushels Accumulated Soybean Exports and Outstanding Sales to All Countries (As of November 15, 2018) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
9/2 9/23 10/14 11/4 11/25 12/16 1/6 1/27 2/17 3/10 3/31 4/21 5/12 6/2 6/23 7/14 8/4 8/25 Million Bushels Accumulated US Soybean Exports to China (As of November 15, 2018) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
16/17 17/18 18/19 16/17 17/18 18/19 16/17 17/18 18/19 16/17 17/18 18/19 16/17 17/18 18/19 16/17 17/18 18/19 16/17 17/18 18/19 16/17 17/18 18/19 16/17 17/18 18/19 Million Bushels Accumulated US Soybean Exports and Outstanding Sales to Top Export Destinations (YTD as of November 15, 2018) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 China European Union - 27 Mexico Indonesia Japan Taiwan Bangladesh Thailand Egypt
China Soybean Supply & Use China s Strategy in the Trade War Import as few US soybeans as possible by sourcing from other countries. Substitute other protein meals for soybean meal. Reduce the meal inclusion rate in livestock rations. Increase domestic soybean production. Draw down ending stocks
Global Soybean Spot Prices October 2017 October 2018 Has China s strategy worked? They have successfully limited imports of US soybeans to under 24 million bushels. US soybean exports and outstanding sales are now 395 million bushels below last year s export levels at this time. Argentina and Brazil crushing industries are struggling because of negative crushing margins since the Chinese have bid up the price of their soybeans. Argentina has increased their export tariff on soybeans and Brazil is considering imposing a 10% export tariff on soybeans. Soybean arbitrage has been slow to happen. Some have suggest this is because Argentina and Brazil s port infrastructure is designed for exports, not imports. In addition, it also takes time to set up new trade pathways. China is getting desperate to find non-us protein meal. If price differences persist, the market will find a way to arbitrage US soybeans.
Million Bushels 1,000 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Soybean Stocks Ending Stocks 96-9797-9898-9999-0000-0101-0202-0303-0404-0505-0606-0707-0808-0909-1010-1111-1212-1313-1414-1515-1616-1717-1818-19
Ending Stocks to Days of Use Soybean Ending Stocks - Days of Use 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Days of Use 96-9797-9898-9999-0000-0101-0202-0303-0404-0505-0606-0707-0808-0909-1010-1111-1212-1313-1414-1515-1616-1717-1818-19
$ per bu. United States Average Farm Price of Soybeans $16.00 $15.00 $14.00 $13.00 $12.00 Farm Price $14.40 $13.00 $12.50 $11.30 $11.00 $10.00 $9.00 $10.10 $9.97 $9.59 $10.10 $9.47 $9.33 $8.95 $8.60 $8.00 $7.35 $7.34 $7.00 $6.47 $6.43 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 $4.93 $4.63 $4.54 $4.38 $5.53 $5.74 $5.66
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Metric Tons World Soybean Ending Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Ending Stocks Ending Stocks to Use 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Metric Tons China Soybean Production, Domestic Use and Imports 120 110 100 90 Production Domestic Use Imports 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Metric Tons 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 South America Soybean Production South America
Soybean Balance Sheet U.S. Soybean: Supply & Use 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Planted Acres 83.4 90.1 89.1 Harvested Acres 82.7 89.5 88.3 Yield 52.0 49.3 52.1 Beginning Stocks 198 303 440 Production 4,296 4,411 4,600 Imports 22 22 25 Total supply 4,516 4,736 5,065 Crush 1,901 2,055 2,080 Seed & Feed 146 112 128 Total Domestic 2,047 2,167 2,208 Export 2,166 2,129 1,900 Total use 4,213 4,296 4,108 Ending Stocks 303 440 957 Stocks/Use 7.2% 10.2% 23.3% Ave Farm Price $9.47 $9.33 $8.60
Soybean Balance Sheet U.S. Soybean: Supply & Use Down 6 million New Crop New Crop New Crop 2018/19 2019/20 2019/20 2019/20 Planted Acres 89.1 83.1 83.1 83.1 Harvested Acres 88.3 82.5 82.5 82.5 Yield 52.1 48.0 50.0 52.0 Beginning Stocks 440 957 957 957 Production 4,600 3,961 4,126 4,291 Imports 25 30 30 30 Total supply 5,065 4,948 5,113 5,278 Crush 2,080 2,100 2,100 2,100 Seed & Feed 128 135 135 135 Total Domestic 2,208 2,235 2,235 2,235 Export 1,900 2,100 2,100 2,100 Total use 4,108 4,335 4,335 4,335 Ending Stocks 957 613 778 943 Stocks/Use 23.3% 14.1% 17.9% 21.8% Ave Farm Price $8.60 $8.86 $8.74 $8.66
March 2019 Soybeans Futures
March 2019 Soybeans Futures $10.20 Objective
November 2019 Soybeans Futures
November 2019 Soybeans Futures $10.20 Objective
Weekly November Soybean Futures
Soybeans - Old Crop 1 2 4 5 8 Cash Hist Return Month Price Futures Basis Basis Storage Dec $8.85 $9.15 -$0.30 $0.34 Jan $8.93 $9.28 -$0.35 $0.33 $0.03 Feb $9.06 $9.28 -$0.22 $0.28 $0.11 Mar $9.10 $9.41 -$0.31 $0.15 $0.10 Oct $9.36 $9.62 -$0.26 $0.14 $0.01 Nov $9.32 $9.70 -$0.38 $0.18 -$0.08
David Reinbott November 19, 2018
Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Thousand Contracts 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10-10 0-20 -30-40 -50-60 -70-80 -90-100 -110-120 -130-140 -150-160 $/Bu Wheat Managed Money (Spec Funds) Net Position Net Position $600 $575 $550 $525 $500 $475 $450 $425 $400 $375 $350
Wheat Balance Sheet U.S. Wheat: Supply & Use USDA USDA 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Planted Acres 50.1 46.0 47.8 Harvested Acres 43.9 37.5 39.6 Yield 52.7 46.3 47.6 Beginning Stocks 976 1,181 1,100 Production 2,309 1,740 1,884 Imports 118 157 140 Total supply 3,403 3,078 3,124 Feed 161 50 110 Food, Seed, & Industrial 1,010 1,027 1,039 Total Domestic 1,171 1,077 1,149 Export 1,051 901 1,025 Total use 2,222 1,978 2,174 Ending Stocks 1,181 1,100 950 Stocks/Use 53.2% 50.7% 150.7% Ave Farm Price $3.89 $4.72 $5.10
Wheat Balance Sheet U.S. Wheat: Supply & Use USDA New Crop New Crop New Crop 2018/19 2019/20 2019/20 2019/20 Planted Acres 47.8 51.0 51.0 51.0 Harvested Acres 39.6 43.1 43.1 43.1 Yield 47.6 45.8 47.8 49.8 Beginning Stocks 1,100 950 950 950 Production 1,884 1,974 2,060 2,146 Imports 140 130 130 130 Total supply 3,124 3,054 3,140 3,226 Feed 110 120 120 120 Food, Seed, & Industrial 1,039 1,043 1,043 1,043 Total Domestic 1,149 1,163 1,163 1,163 Export 1,025 1,000 1,000 1,000 Total use 2,174 2,163 2,163 2,163 Ending Stocks 950 891 977 1,063 Stocks/Use 150.7% 41.2% 45.2% 49.2% Ave Farm Price $5.10 $5.40 $5.20 $4.80
Million Bushels Wheat Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Ending Stocks Ending Stocks/USE 96-97 98-99 00-01 02-03 04-05 06-07 08-09 10-11 12-13 14-15 16-17 18-19 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Metric Tons World Wheat Ending Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Ending Stocks Ending Stocks to Use 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
July 2019 Wheat Futures
July 2019 Wheat Futures
Weekly July Wheat Futures
David Reinbott December 7, 2018
Revenue University of Missouri Extension Southeast Missouri Non-Irrigation Crop Budgets 2019 Corn GMO Soybean Roundup Ready 2 Xtend Soybean Liberty Link Cotton Wheat D. C. Soybean L.L. Estimated Yield (Bu/Acre) A 165 48 48 900 70 42 Estimated Price ($/Bushel) B $3.90 $8.75 $8.75 $0.712 $5.20 $8.75 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/Acre) $643.50 $420.00 $420.00 $640.80 $364.00 $367.50 Total Variable Cost $ 451.78 $ 269.20 $ 258.85 $ 498.82 $ 251.66 $ 247.83 Total Costs (Excluding Land) $ 535.78 $ 321.20 $ 310.85 $ 641.82 $ 297.66 $ 288.83 Total Cost (Including Land or Rent) $ 686.98 $ 472.40 $ 462.05 $ 793.02 $ 373.26 $ 364.43 Estimated Returns Returns Above Variable Costs $191.72 $150.80 $161.15 $141.98 $112.34 $119.67 Returns Above Mach & Buildings $107.72 $98.80 $109.15 ($1.02) $66.34 $78.67 Returns Above Total Costs ($43.48) ($52.40) ($42.05) ($152.22) ($9.26) $3.07 Breakeven Price $4.16 $9.84 $9.63 $0.88 $5.33 $8.68 Breakeven Yield 176 54 53 1,114 72 42
Revenue Corn GMO Soybean Roundup Ready 2 Xtend Soybean Liberty Link Cotton Rice Convent. Wheat D. C. Soybean L.L. Estimated Yield (Bu/Acre) A 220 65 65 1300 180 75 50 Estimated Price ($/Bushel) B $3.90 $8.75 $8.75 $0.712 $5.35 $5.20 $8.75 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/Acre) $858.00 $568.75 $568.75 $925.60 $963.00 $390.00 $437.50 Total Variable Cost $ 581.18 $ 317.49 $ 307.14 $ 554.86 $ 511.03 $ 251.66 $ 298.29 Total Costs (Excluding Land) $ 748.18 $ 448.49 $ 438.14 $ 775.86 $ 682.03 $ 297.66 $ 417.29 Total Cost (Including Land or Rent) $ 899.38 $ 599.69 $ 589.34 $ 927.06 $ 833.23 $ 373.26 $ 492.89 Estimated Returns University of Missouri Extension Southeast Missouri Irrigation Crop Budgets 2019 Returns Above Variable Costs $276.82 $251.26 $261.61 $370.74 $451.97 $138.34 $139.21 Returns Above Mach & Buildings $109.82 $120.26 $130.61 $149.74 $280.97 $92.34 $20.21 Returns Above Total Costs ($41.38) ($30.94) ($20.59) ($1.46) $129.77 $16.74 ($55.39) Breakeven Price $4.09 $9.23 $9.07 $0.71 $4.63 $4.98 $9.86 Breakeven Yield 231 69 67 1,302 156 72 56
Farm Labor Management Workshop December 13, 2018 Miner Convention Center, Miner, MO (Next to the Drury Inn E. Malone & I-55) Registration: 8:30 a.m. Program: 9:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Fee: $20/person - Lunch Provided
David Reinbott November 19, 2018
-40-30 -20-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 $/LB Cotton Commodity Funds Net Postion
Million Bales Cotton Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Ending Stocks EDST/ USE 96-97 98-99 00-01 02-03 04-05 06-07 08-09 10-11 12-13 14-15 16-17 18-19 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million 480-pouond bales World Cotton Ending Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 70.0 65.0 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 Ending Stocks Ending Stocks to Use 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Bales China Cotton Production and Domestic Consumption 50.0 45.0 40.0 Production Dom Cons. Imports 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Metric Tons China to World Cotton Ending Stocks 70.0% 65.0% 60.0% 55.0% China to World Ending Stocks 56.37% 62.74%62.16% 62.77% 57.11% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 36.40% 32.60%33.14% 34.77% 30.16% 30.85% 43.08% 47.29% 41.14% 25.0% 20.0% 21.52% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%
Cotton Balance Sheet U.S. Cotton: Supply & Use 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Planted Acres 10.07 12.61 14.04 Harvested Acres 9.51 11.1 10.37 % Harvested 94% 88% 74% Yield 867 905 852 Beginning Stocks 3.80 2.75 4.29 Production 17.17 20.92 18.41 Imports 0.01 0.00 0.01 Total supply 20.98 23.67 22.71 Mill 3.25 3.23 3.30 Export 14.92 15.85 15.00 Total use 18.17 19.08 18.30 Unaccounted 0.06 0.30 0.11 Ending Stocks 2.75 4.29 4.30 Stocks/Use 15.1% 30.3% 30.3% Ave Farm Price $0.680 $0.686 $0.740
Million Acres Ratio of Dec Corn/Dec Cotton Futures, Three Month Average First Quarter, vs. June Cotton Planted Acreage Report 13+ million acres in 2019 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 03 01 00 06 04 05 11 18 17 02 10 14 8 3.50 4.50 5.50 6.50 7.50 8.50 Ratio 12 16 08 15 07 13 09 Note: Informa has already forecasted 14.6M acres. Accounts for influence of lower soybean plantings
Cotton Balance Sheet U.S. Cotton: Supply & Us New Crop New Crop New Crop 2019/20 2019/20 2019/20 Planted Acres 13.50 13.50 13.50 Harvested Acres 12.10 12.10 12.10 % Harvested 90% 90% 90% Yield 800 850 900 Beginning Stocks 4.30 4.30 4.30 Production 20.17 21.43 22.69 Imports 0.05 0.05 0.05 Total supply 24.52 25.78 27.04 Mill 3.40 3.40 3.40 Export 16.50 16.50 16.50 Total use 19.90 19.90 19.90 Unaccounted 0.01 0.01 0.01 Ending Stocks 4.61 5.87 7.13 Stocks/Use 23.1% 29.5% 35.8% Ave Farm Price $0.750 $0.700 $0.650
March 2019 Cotton Futures
December 2019 Cotton Futures
Weekly Cotton Futures
David Reinbott November 19, 2018
Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0-500 -1,000-1,500-2,000-2,500-3,000-3,500-4,000-4,500-5,000-5,500 Rice Managed Money (Spec Funds) Net Position Net Position
Million Bushels Rice Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use 55.0 50.0 END. STKS Ending Stocks/Use 25% 45.0 40.0 20% 35.0 30.0 15% 25.0 20.0 10% 15.0 10.0 5% 5.0 0.0 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 0%
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Million Metric tons World Rice Ending Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ending Stocks Ending Stocks to Use 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Rice Balance Sheet U.S. Rice: Supply & Use 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Planted Acres 3.15 2.46 2.94 Harvested Acres 3.10 2.37 2.90 Yield 7,237 7,507 7,522 Beginning Stocks 46.50 46.10 29.40 Production 224.10 178.20 218.30 Imports 23.50 26.90 28.00 Total supply 294.10 251.20 275.70 Domestic 133.20 134.80 133.00 Export 114.80 87.00 96.00 Total use 248.00 221.80 229.00 Ending Stocks 46.10 29.40 46.70 Stocks/Use 18.5% 13.2% 13.2% Ave Farm Price $10.400 $12.700 $12.000 Ave Farm Price (bushel) $4.68 $5.72 $5.40 Long Grain Price $9.61 $11.50 $10.70 Long Grain Price (bushel) $4.32 $5.18 $4.82 PLC Payment (Bushel) $1.98 $1.13 $1.49
Rice Balance Sheet U.S. Rice: Supply & Use New Crop New Crop New Crop 2018/19 2019/20 2019/20 2019/20 Planted Acres 2.94 2.72 2.72 2.72 Harvested Acres 2.90 2.69 2.69 2.69 Yield 7,522 7,550 7,722 7,900 Beginning Stocks 29.40 46.70 46.70 46.70 Production 218.30 203.31 207.94 212.73 Imports 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 Total supply 275.70 278.01 282.64 287.43 Domestic 133.00 134.00 134.00 134.00 Export 96.00 104.00 104.00 104.00 Total use 229.00 238.00 238.00 238.00 Ending Stocks 46.70 40.01 44.64 49.43 Stocks/Use 13.2% 16.8% 18.8% 20.8% Ave Farm Price $12.000 $12.500 $11.900 $11.000 Ave Farm Price (bushel) $5.40 $5.63 $5.36 $4.95 Long Grain Price $10.70 $11.500 $10.600 $10.000 Long Grain Price (bushel) $4.82 $5.18 $4.77 $4.50 PLC Payment (Bushel) $1.49 $1.13 $1.53 $1.80
January 2019 Rice Futures
Weekly Rice Futures
David Reinbott November 19, 2018
Revenue University of Missouri Extension Southeast Missouri Non-Irrigation Crop Budgets 2019 Corn GMO Soybean Roundup Ready 2 Xtend Soybean Liberty Link Cotton Wheat D. C. Soybean L.L. Estimated Yield (Bu/Acre) A 165 48 48 900 70 42 Estimated Price ($/Bushel) B $3.90 $8.75 $8.75 $0.712 $5.20 $8.75 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/Acre) $643.50 $420.00 $420.00 $640.80 $364.00 $367.50 Total Variable Cost $ 449.49 $ 270.79 $ 256.37 $ 474.06 $ 251.27 $ 244.16 Total Costs (Excluding Land) $ 528.49 $ 317.79 $ 303.37 $ 604.06 $ 294.27 $ 279.16 Total Cost (Including Land or Rent) $ 690.49 $ 479.79 $ 465.37 $ 766.06 $ 375.27 $ 360.16 Estimated Returns Returns Above Variable Costs $194.01 $149.21 $163.63 $166.74 $112.73 $123.34 Returns Above Mach & Buildings $115.01 $102.21 $116.63 $36.74 $69.73 $88.34 Returns Above Total Costs ($46.99) ($59.79) ($45.37) ($125.26) ($11.27) $7.34 Breakeven Price $4.18 $10.00 $9.70 $0.85 $5.36 $8.58 Breakeven Yield 177 55 53 1,076 72 41
Revenue Corn GMO Soybean Roundup Ready 2 Xtend Soybean Liberty Link Cotton Rice Convent. Wheat D. C. Soybean L.L. Estimated Yield (Bu/Acre) A 220 65 65 1300 180 75 50 Estimated Price ($/Bushel) B $3.90 $8.75 $8.75 $0.712 $5.35 $5.20 $8.75 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/Acre) $858.00 $568.75 $568.75 $925.60 $963.00 $390.00 $437.50 Total Variable Cost $ 574.25 $ 315.64 $ 297.10 $ 525.56 $ 507.28 $ 251.27 $ 291.28 Total Costs (Excluding Land) $ 744.25 $ 449.64 $ 431.10 $ 741.56 $ 671.28 $ 294.27 $ 412.28 Total Cost (Including Land or Rent) $ 906.25 $ 611.64 $ 593.10 $ 903.56 $ 833.28 $ 375.27 $ 493.28 Estimated Returns University of Missouri Extension Southeast Missouri Irrigation Crop Budgets 2019 Returns Above Variable Costs $283.75 $253.11 $271.65 $400.04 $455.73 $138.73 $146.22 Returns Above Mach & Buildings $113.75 $119.11 $137.65 $184.04 $291.73 $95.73 $25.22 Returns Above Total Costs ($48.25) ($42.89) ($24.35) $22.04 $129.73 $14.73 ($55.78) Breakeven Price $4.12 $9.41 $9.12 $0.70 $4.63 $5.00 $9.87 Breakeven Yield 232 70 68 1,269 156 72 56
David Reinbott November 19, 2018
Projected PLC Payment Rate for 2017-18 November 8, 2018 Price Crop Marketing Final Reference Price Payment P -Proj. (bu/ac) Year Payment Price November Rate F- Final Corn Sep. 1-Aug. 31 Sep. 29, 2018 $3.70 $3.36 $0.34 F- Final Soybeans Sep. 1-Aug. 31 Sep. 29, 2018 $8.40 $9.33 $0.00 F- Final Grain Sorghum Sep. 1-Aug. 31 Sep. 29, 2018 $3.95 $3.22 $0.73 F- Final Wheat Jun. 1-May 31 Jun. 29, 2018 $5.50 $4.72 $0.78 F- Final Rice (LG) $/bu Aug. 1-Jul. 31 Oct. 29, 2018 $6.30 $5.18 $1.12 F- Final Peanuts Aug. 1-Jul. 31 Aug. 31, 2018 $0.2675 $0.2290 $0.0385 F- Final Projected PLC Payment Rate for 2018-19 November 8, 2018 Price Crop Marketing Final Reference Price Payment P -Proj. (bu/ac) Year Payment Price November Rate F- Final Corn Sep. 1-Aug. 31 Sept., 2019 $3.70 $3.60 $0.10 P Soybeans Sep. 1-Aug. 31 Sept., 2019 $8.40 $8.60 $0.00 P Grain Sorghum Sep. 1-Aug. 31 Sept., 2019 $3.95 $3.40 $0.55 p Wheat Jun. 1-May 31 August, 2019 $5.50 $5.10 $0.40 P Rice (LG) $/bu Aug. 1-Jul. 31 October, 2019 $6.30 $4.82 $1.48 P Peanuts Aug. 1-Jul. 31 August, 2019 $0.2675 $0.2150 $0.0525 P Seed Cotton Aug. 1-Jul. 31 October, 2019 $0.3670 $0.3513 $0.0157 P
Winter Meetings Corn Meeting Dec. 12 Miner Cvt. Ct. Farm Labor Mang. - Dec. 13 Miner CC Soybean Meeting Jan. 16 - MCC Cotton Meeting Jan 24 Delta Center Rice Meeting Feb 21 Malden Cm. Ct.
Questions? Comments? David Reinbott (573) 545-3516 reinbottd@missouri.edu