Fertilizers and the Food Challenge Priorities for Technology Deployment Prof.dr.ir. R. Rabbinge Former Chair, Science Council, CGIAR University Professor, Wageningen University, The Netherlands FIRT Conference, St. Petersburg, Florida November 16, 2011 With thanks to Sanjib Choudhuri
Today s Discussion Megatrends in agriculture Understanding the food challenge 2010 2050 Technology opportunities for fertilizers An agenda for moving forward 2
Today s Discussion Megatrends in agriculture Understanding the food challenge 2010 2050 Technology opportunities for fertilizers An agenda for moving forward 3
Megatrends Agriculture 1: Productivity rise 2: From craft to Grain production in NL between 1400 and 2000 Industry 10000 700 9000 600 9000 600 8000 7000 500 6000 400 5000 350 4000 300 3000 200 2000 1800 1000 800 100 0 12 0 1400 1 1910 2 3 2000 KG/HA MAN-HOUR Megatrends 3: Chain approach 6: Bio based economy 5: Food and health 4: Multiple objectives
Megatrend (1): Productivity rise last century Land productivity x 5 6 Labor productivity x 200 300 Energy and other inputs x 2 4 Grain production in NL between 1400 and 2000 10000 700 9000 9000 600 600 8000 7000 500 6000 400 KG/HA 5000 350 4000 300 MAN-HOUR 3000 200 2000 1800 1000 800 100 0 12 0 1 2 3 1400 1910 2000
Global food production 20 th century 250 Production 230 Index value 210 190 170 150 130 110 Population Per capita production 90 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year
Discontinuities in production trends Wheat Yields in the Netherlands from 1900 onwards Wheat Yield (ton/ha) 10.0 Wheat Yield (ton/ha) 5.0 UK 78 kg/ha/yr kg/ha 4000 Yield of Paddy (Indonesia) 8.0 160 kg/ha/yr 4.0 130 kg/ha per year 6.0 3.0 4 kg/ha/yr 50 kg/ha/yr 3000 4.0 15 kg/ha/yr 2.0 2000 2.0 1.0 3 kg/ha/yr USA 2.5 kg/ha per year 1940-1945 0.0 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 Year 0.0 1900 1950 1980 Year 1000 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 year Green revolutions
Global population growth Billion 10.0 World population 8.0 6.0 4.0 WORLD DEVELOPING WORLD DEVELOPED WORLD 2.0 0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Availability of food per capita Index 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Asia South America SS Africa Source: FAOstat
Why is Africa lagging behind? Study by Inter Academy Council Realizing the promise and potential of African agriculture I request the IAC a report providing a technological strategic plan to provide substantial increase in agricultural productivity in Africa Kofi Annan, March 2002
Study results (1) Problems of Africa Weathered soils Erratic rainfall Endemic plant and animal diseases Poor resource base, Vulnerable environment Nutrient depletion No data Low Moderate High Very high Absence of dominating food crops Multitude of farming systems Need for many different technologies
Sub Saharan Africa... a special challenge... Extensification no longer viable in Sub Saharan Africa depleted land, diminishing per capita land advantage 12
Study results (2) Problems of Africa Dominant role for women limited access to resources Land and Labor productivity low How to become competitive? Lack of investment in agricultural research Lack of knowledge infrastructure Lack of functioning academic institutions Brain drain Need for investment in research and education
Study results (3) Problems of Africa Not functioning local and regional markets Land entitlement inappropriate No stimulating political and economic environment Inadequate capacity to impact global policy formulation Lack of good governance Need for renewal of institutional arrangements
A way forward
IAC report: Strategic recommendations Technology options that can make a difference (11) Building impact oriented research, knowledge and development institutions (5) Creating and retaining a new generation of agricultural scientists (5) Markets and policies to make the poor prosperous and food secure (5) Increase investments in agriculture and infrastructure
Priority Farming Systems Irrigated system Maize mixed system Tree crop based system Cereal root crop mixed system Hunger Hotspot (CIESIN)
Sub Saharan Africa... a new fertilizer opportunity Per Hectare, Fertilizer Use by Markets, 2008/09 (kg/ha) 130 8 Sub Saharan Africa South Asia increased fertilizer usage needed in Sub Saharan Africa to reverse historical soil nutrient mining impact, increase yield AGRA target (50kg/ha) = +25 MMT NPK/ $35 billion FOB per year 18
Today s Discussion Megatrends in agriculture Understanding the food challenge 2010 2050 Technology opportunities for fertilizers An agenda for moving forward 19
Population in developing regions urban doubling, rural slowdown Implications: Increased competition for already scarce resources land, water Challenging farmer productivity 1.5x more urban mouths per farmer Must avoid starving rural being substituted by hungry urban 20
Demand increase urban growth in developing regions Implications: Near doubling of food output under tougher conditions land, water, climate Absolute increase greater than achieved with Green Revolution Large infrastructure expansion to move 1.5x more food to urban markets 21
Supply fewer farms, smallholder farms remain key Implications: Land use policies must maintain agricultural acreage despite fewer farms Must increase smallholder farm productivity and output for urban supply Infrastructure needed for reliable, affordable access to agri inputs, markets 22
Billion plus Club key to developing regions Different challenges: China Rapid urbanization, already high urban/rural population India, Sub Saharan Africa large urban shift, large marginal population 23
Yield challenging increase for smallholder farms Large farms will continue to drive overall yield in developing regions Smallholder farms must also contribute to overall yield increase 24
Today s Discussion Megatrends in agriculture Understanding the food challenge 2010 2050 Technology opportunities for fertilizers An agenda for moving forward 25
Developing regions majority of global fertilizer usage Global NPK Consumption 2008/09 162 MMT Fertilizers US 11% Rest of The World Brazil 6% 45 50% of yield China 31% India 13% Asia Africa 3% 26
Industry s technology focus optimization Fertilizers essentially unchanged since early 1980s 27
NUE opportunity example Urea in developing regions Improved Yield +15%* Investment Productivity $7 8 billion per year** Environmental sensitivity $1.5 billion/yr carbon tax offset*** *IFDC UDP experience ** @100 MMT urea per year currently *** $25/MMT CO2 GHG equivalent 28
Micronutrients health and yield opportunity INDIA MT More assured availability in developing regions Greater application convenience, especially for smallholder farmers Supportive regulatory and subsidy policies 29
Opportunities in fertilizer sourcing N fertilizers Prevalent Haber Bosch method uses natural gas for H feedstock Ties pricing to globally traded non renewable fossil fuel Forces importation by gas poor countries (e.g. India) Complex capital intensive facilities disallow dispersed production points closer to markets P fertilizers Prevalent phosphoric acid method uses high grade phosphate rock 50% nutrient recovery Inefficiencies imbedded in fertilizer price Large waste streams Locally available phosphate rock (e.g. In Africa) generally uneconomic with current technology Greater self reliance local feedstock (hydrogen, phosphate rock) Improved economics higher recovery efficiencies, lower capital intensity Smaller environmental footprint lower waste streams 30
Today s Discussion Megatrends in agriculture Understanding the food challenge 2010 2050 Technology opportunities for fertilizers An agenda for moving forward 31
Adopt a focused technology agenda TARGET OUTCOME Responsible, sustainable food security TECHNOLOGY PRIORITIES Focus on N&P fertilizers for South Asia and Sub Saharan Africa TARGET OUTPUT New intelligent fertilizers Higher, more assured yield at lower cost Improved human health Smaller environmental footprint Greater nutrient self reliance Improve NUE by 25 50% at affordable cost Reduce the risk of failed yields for smallholder farmers Increase the convenience and accuracy of delivering secondary and micro nutrients Reduce sourcing costs, increase self reliance with alternatives and improvements to current production processes Fail safe Adaptive Eco sensitive Economical 32
Virtual Fertilizer Research Center (VFRC) Managed under IFDC Led by global Board of Advisors Supported by Advisory Committees The world s smallholder farmers have ready access to sustainable, affordable, efficient and environmentally friendly fertilizers. Through collaborative research and development, the VFRC will help develop and introduce the next generation of the world s fertilizer products and technologies necessary to benefit smallholder farmers in the developing world. 33
Facilitate a co ordinated program Multiple initiatives over time supporting a common agenda Multiple partner teams in several locations Differing timelines for development and commercialization Many distinct jurisdictions for review and approval Many financing sources and approaches ( funding, in kind) 34
VFRC Organization USAID, International sponsors Confirmed October 2011 Priorities established, initial scoping underway 35
Fertilizers and the Food Challenge New intelligent fertilizers Goal for developing regions Fail safe Adaptive Eco sensitive Economical Responsible, sustainable food security Thank you! 36