www.aebiom.org Evaluation of the National Renewable Energy Action Plans Jean-Marc Jossart Copenhagen, 6 October 2010
About AEBIOM European Biomass Association Represents and promotes interests of bioenergy stakeholders 30 national associations about 80 companies Activities: lobbying, workshops, newsletters, European projects, working groups, etc. Based in Brussels Renewable Energy House Member of EREC AEBIOM annual report 2009 available on web site
Evaluation of NREAP State of play Definitions Growth of biomass supply Biomass vs final energy Cross Border Bioenergy Conclusion
State of play (5 Oct.) 21 NREAP submitted + draft provided to AEBIOM : BE, PO + unknown : EE, HU, LV, SK English : GR, IR, MT, UK, SE, NL, DK, FI Rest in national languages translation should come soon Transparency platform: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/transparency_platform/action_plan_en.htm
Definitions Reg 1099/2008 on energy statistics Eurostat Production/ indigenous production Primary production Gross consumption Gross inland consumption Confusion was clearly possible for member states for table 7 and 7a!
ktoe Availability of biomass Comparison NREAP and Eurostat figures for 2006 20.000 18.000 16.000 Eurostat 2006 REAP 2006 14.000 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 - AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU IE IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK Figures of table 7 should be taken with caution! Source of differences : data sources, conversion into ktoe, template asks for feedstock while Eurostat accounts the final processed biofuels
ktoe Growth of biomass availability Denmark : Comparison Eurostat figures for 2000-7 and DK REAP for 2006 2015 2020 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500! 1.000 500-2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 How to explain a difference of 30% between Eurostat and the Danish plan for 2006?
ktoe Growth rate of biomass availability Comparison of annual growth rate (%) from 2000 to 2007 (Eurostat) with growth rate of 2006 2020 (NREAP) 35% Annual growth rate Eurostat Annual growth rate NREAP 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU IE IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK -5% Growth of biomass looks disappointing in many countries (AT, CZ, DK, DE, SE) compared with recent years growth Reason for decreased growth : targets not ambitious, controversy about biomass (food/materials)
ktoe Biomass increase Increase of biomass from forest, agriculture and waste 18.000 16.000 14.000 12.000 Forest Agriculture Waste 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 - -2.000-4.000 AT BE draft BU CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU IR IT LV LT LU MT NL PO draft PT RO SK SI ES SE UK Total without na Many members states are counting on a substantial increase of agriculture (IT, PO, FR, DK, ES, RO but not SE)
Is biomass availability sufficient? Table 7 a, 7 Table 7 a, 7 (220 Mtoe) Gross Understanding inland consumption energy statistics is essential to analyse the Final action energy plans consumption 20 Mtoe 227 TWh Table 10 a, for solid, biogas, bioliquid Table Table 11 11 Table Table 12 12 80 Mtoe 45 Mtoe Eurostat biomass statist
ktoe Is biomass availability sufficient? Comparison final energy consumption / gross inland biomass for Denmark, 2005 and 2020, ktoe 4.000 3.500 3.000 Gross inland biomass consumption! Biofuels Biomass for heat and bioheat Bioelectricity 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500-2005 2020 1 2 3 4 Denmark has underestimated the amount of biomass needed to reach its targets!! Same conclusion for PO, BU, ES, CZ, etc.!! Or targets are overestimated!!
Mtoe In this sufficient? Comparison NREAP (EU22) and AEBIOM targets for 2020 140 120 NREAP for EU 23 AEBIOM 100 80 60 40 20 0 Bioelectricity Biomass for heat and bioheat (Mtoe) Biofuels (Mtoe) Targets for bioelectricity and biofuels are in line with AEBIOM target, while the heat sector is underestimated.
Cross Border Bioenergy Full title : Cross-border markets for the European bioenergy industry AEBIOM project to help companies to evaluate markets in Europe and support their decision making process to invest in other countries. 5 Market sectors Biogas Small scale heat DH CHP Biofuels Activities Criteria for market attractiveness Data collection and dissemination B2B, etc. Join 9 focussed countries + others Austria Germany Denmark Finland Hungary Italy Latvia Sweden Slovak Republic + Other EU27 Become member of the Working Groups Participate to workshops And more Project supported by
GWh Where are expected new markets? Bioelectricity : increase from 2005 to 2020 (GWh) 40.000 35.000 30.000 Incrase 2005-2020 (GWh) 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 - AT BE draft BU CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU IR IT LV LT LU MT NL PO draft PT RO SK SI ES SE UK Large new bioelectricity markets in DE, UK, FR, IT, PO, NL + 157 TWh for 22 countries
ktoe Where are expected new markets? Biomass for heat and bioheat (DH, CHP) : increase from 2005 to 2020 (ktoe) 8.000 7.000 Increase 2005-2020 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 - -1.000 AT BE draft BU CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU IR IT LV LT LU MT NL PO draft PT RO SK SI ES SE UK Large heat markets (households, DH) in FR, DE, IT, UK, SE + 31 Mtoe for 22 countries
ktoe Where are expected new markets? Biofuels for transport : increase from 2005 to 2020 (ktoe) 4.500 4.000 3.500 Increase 2005-2020 of which 2G 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 - AT BE draft BU CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU IR IT LV LT LU MT NL PO draft PT RO SK SI ES SE UK Large new biofuels markets in UK, DE, FR, ES, IT + 25 Mtoe for 22 countries Advanced biofuels 10% of market in 2020
Conclusion Preliminary conclusions as some REAPs are still missing, and translation takes time. Growth of biomass availability looks disappointing, but are the figures soundly established? Biomass from agriculture is expected to grow much more than forest biomass measures expected Biomass availability and bioelectricity/heat/biofuels targets do not match, also for Denmark! EC reaction expected The heat market looks underestimated once again!! Be involved in the Cross Border Bioenergy project to evaluate export markets.
Thank you for your attention Jean-Marc Jossart info@aebiom.org www.aebiom.org AEBIOM agenda Working Group sustainability 14 October Workshop at European parliament on sustainability 10 November