Mag. Dr. Stephan Sharma Outcome of the World Energy Congress 2013 in Daegu Global trends and insights for Europe Vienna, March, 20th, 2014
Challenges for energy economic 4 A s Energy Trilemma Energy Dilemma Accessibility Availability Accessibility Accessibility Affordability Accountability Acceptability Affordability Sustainability 2
6 takeaways Daegu 2013 1. Energy access remains global challenge 2. Green growth the dream - black growth the reality 3. The declining economic importance of Europe 4. Global economic power shifting to Asia 5. Peak oil and gas not in sight 6. Energy efficiency is more than a trend - the solution 3
Global access to energy remains a challenge People without access to electricity, in millions (2010) 1267 29 Latin America & The Caribbean 20 Middle East & North Africa 589 Sub-Saharan Africa 471 South & Central Asia 22 East Asia 135 Southeast Asia & Pacific World Source: World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050; World Energy Council, 2013 4
Green growth the dream black growth the reality Share of global primary energy demand (%) 2010 2050 Nuclear 5% Nuclear 4% RES 15% Oil 32% RES 19% Gas 27% Gas 21% Coal 27% Oil 25% Coal 25% 546 EJ +60% 879 EJ Source: World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050; World Energy Council, 2013, for 2050: scenario Jazz 5
Green growth the dream black growth the reality For example: China and India LRMC of electricity generation real 2012 USD per MWh Reserves and resources in billion tonnes of oil equivalent 160 +270 % 3629 140 120 +200 % 100 +120 % 80 60 40 20 0 Hardcoal Onshore Wind PV Source: World Energy Perspective, Cost of Energy Technologies; World Energy Council, 2013 Natural gas 120 56 Hardcoal Lignite Natural gas Natural gas: conventional and non-conventional reserves and resources Source: Energiestudie 2012, Reserven, Ressourcen und Verfügbarkeit von Energierohstoffen; BGR Resources Reserves 6
The declining economic importance of Europe Industrial electricity prices by region, 2012 real 2012 USD per MWh Industrial electricity prices by region, 2035 real 2012 USD per MWh 250 250 200 +125 % 200 +125 % 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 US China EU Japan 0 US China Japan EU * Energy and network costs, including taxes and subsidies Source: World Energy Outlook 2013; IEA 7
The declining economic importance of Europe Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods, today and 2035 +1% +3% +2% +2% -3% -10% Share of global export market in % Percantage change to 2035 in % Source: World Energy Outlook 2013; IEA 8
Outcome of the World Energy Congress 2013 in Daegu Key energy economic challenges: Energy access and affordability sustainability is not an issue Accessibility 1,3 billion people are without access to electricity Strong growth in energy demand: +60% to 2050 Affordability Coal is a cheap energy source, that is widely available Fossil fuels continue to dominate the global energy market until 2050, ~80% of world energy supply Low importance of RES until 2050, ~20% of world energy supply Europe Specific focus on sustainability is singular Risk of loss of competitivenes and prosperity through high energy costs 9
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The declining importance of Europe Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States today and 2035 Source: World Energy Outlook 2013; IEA 11
Fossil fuel subsidies versus subsidies to renewables Subsidies [billion USD] 544 342 39 101 Fossil fuels RES Fossil fuels RES 2007 2012 Source: IEA 12